Wild-Card Round Preview

Qualifying for the Division D playoffs is a lot like graduating high school. You congratulate yourself. Other people congratulate you. You party the weekend away, and make plans to make that last summer before college an epic one.

But really, all you’ve done is get through the easiest part of your life FPF season. (Yes, that was in part a dig at the boys from Les Indécis, Longhorns, Weapon X, Sticky Hands, Taimesaheiiin, Hot Boys Hotline, More Money-less TDs, Blue Devils, Get on Deck, and my own squad. Boy did we suck). 

Meanwhile, you realize that summer isn’t so epic when you spend it all working full-time at that fast food chain by your house. Welcome to life after high school, kid. 

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re among the 24 teams to have qualified for this year’s Division D playoffs. And to you I say not congratulations, but rather, here’s your uniform. Time to get to work.

 

Predictions

Conference A

Gators (5) vs. Pandas (12) 

Previous meeting: Gators 25, Pandas 13

This matchup made for a close battle when these teams met for the first time, coming down to essentially the game’s last two drives.

It won’t be as close this time around, and the reason is simple: Pandas will not have starting QB Nirosh Suresh, who engineered the team’s rejuvenation in the second half of the season, available to play.

That likely means it’ll be Ryan Kharouf at QB, which in turn means there won’t be Ryan Kharouf at receiver.

Good luck keeping up with a dangerous receiving corps and a defense that is among the few to feature a top notch pass rusher to go along with a pair of safeties who have recorded 14 INTs, 15 PDs, and 3 Pick 6s between them.

 

All Blacks (8) vs. Magic City (9)

Previous meeting: All Blacks 25, Magic City 24 

Converts proved to be the difference when these two teams faced off just a few weeks ago. It very well could be the difference once again this weekend. It’ll really come down to who makes the better adjustments.

The thing is, Magic City have the offense that’s more clearly defendable: keep QB Matt Cinquino from extending plays with his legs, and you are likely to force him to make mistakes.

However, Magic City also have the offense that’s less easily defendable: achieving the above is easier said than done.

On the other hand, Magic City’s task is to find someone or set up a system to keep top All Blacks receiver Anthony Lapointe from going off. Also easier said than done, but in my mind, a tougher task than that facing All Blacks.

 

Bromigos (6) vs. Ghosts (11)

Previous meeting: Bromigos 32, Ghosts 20

I wonder if Ghosts consider it a blessing or a curse to, for the second straight season, play a team they lost to in the season finale once again in the early stages of the playoffs. This past winter, it was St. Lunatics. This spring, it’s Bromigos. Ghosts successfully took down St. Lunatics in that playoff matchup, in case you’e wondering.  

I feel like it there are plenty of factors at play that should make me pick Ghosts. Their experience. The fact they were without two-way player Alexis Gaumont this past week. You can never forget about Zach Zwirn either.

But at the same time, I can’t shake the unlikelihood that their defense suddenly has the answer for a QB in at Larose-Laurent that just went off for 5 TDs and over 200 yards on them – especially if his full receiving corps shows up. Then on defense, Gab Wiseman will be facing off against the same premier rusher in Jean-Mathieu Vidal that sacked him twice and gave him some trouble last week.

But in typical Ghosts fashion, I’m sure they’ll end up proving me wrong and winning anyway.

 

Fuzzy-Kittens (7) vs. Les Affreux (10)

Previous meeting: none  

I really hope for Les Affreux’s sake that they don’t go into this game thinking it’s a done deal. Paper tells you Fuzzy-Kittens have only one win versus a team that finished with a winning record, and that was 5-Star back in Week 3 when they were still pretty unpolished. Paper tells you Fuzzy are backing into the playoffs, coming off a blowout loss to a contender.

But paper also tells you that Simon Bosquet-Beaudoin has played the minimum number of games required to make the playoffs. You can bet the farm he’ll be showing up to this matchup. 

For me, it’s not a question that SBB’s presence will lead to some big points for Fuzzy. When it comes to the trio of SBB, JR Beausoleil and Gab Poisson, you simply can’t cover all of them at once. Rather, I think SBB’s presence figures to be key for the Fuzzy defense. Put him at rusher versus Mat Domon, who doesn’t exactly have the quickest release in Div D, and watch the playmaker force more than a few errant passes. 

  

Conference B

On Les Empêche (8) vs. SABRFC (9)

Previous meeting: none

SABRFC finished the season on the highest of high notes, putting up a whopping 54 points on a solid Two and a Half Dabs team… in the same season that they put up a single TD in a game. Meanwhile, OLE (I avoided using this acronym all season long because once you read it as “olé” it cannot be unread, but ah what the hell) experienced the opposite scenario, entering the playoffs after having scored a lone TD in their most recent game in the same season they put up 38 in one week. I could really go into more detail, but you get the idea: these are some two very, very inconsistent teams.

Now, to be fair to OLE, they closed out the season without starter Nicolas Schaefer at QB, and that makes a world of difference.

But what’s most important is what you’ve done lately, and it’s clear that in that department SABRFC look essentially unstoppable while OLP look anything but. As solid OLE have played defensively this season, I just do not see how they realistically contain the beastly foursome that is Mickey and Max Marini, Kyle McGuigan, and Jordan Mcinnis. The speed of the Marinis and the size of McGuigan and Micinnis in the endzone make this receiving corps a matchup nightmare for any secondary.

Meanwhile, even if OLE do get Schaefer back for this game, he’ll be left experiencing nightmares himself with sackmaster Surya Chandel lining up seven yards away from him play after play.

 

Get Off My D (6) vs. Friends in Low Places (11)

Previous meeting: Get Off My D 32, Friends in Low Places 19

Week 10 saw GOMD take down FLP by two scores, and there wasn’t really anything out of the ordinary: GOMD was led the way offensively by top receivers Jad Aridi and Marty Freedman, while FLP saw their own top duo of Danny D’Amour and Kevin Smuda do the same. 

I can’t say I’m expecting anything really different the second time around.

These are two good teams with rosters featuring a couple of stud two-way athletes, playing for QBs who have a tendency to kind of float their deep throws. That figures to be an issue when you have Aridi roaming from the safety position at one end and D’Amour doing the same down the other. There will be picks, I can guarantee you that. Ultimately, I think it’ll simply be a matter of who can be more expected to capitalize on them, and I think that team is GOMD.  

 

Backayard Bullies (7) vs. St. Lunatics (10) 

Previous meeting: Backyard Bullies 30, St. Lunatics 30

Probably the matchup I’m most looking forward to, just because this time there’s no way around it: a winner will be named. It’s safe to say both teams are rather disappointed with how they closed out their seasons: St. Lunatics were drop-kicked in the face by The Goats while ByB fell short versus Frosty Bronsons (Got Damn it, Brennan, you had one job).  

I can’t say I feel particularly strongly about one team over the other in this matchup. Both have excellent defenses, ByB having the edge at rusher with Mark Donohue and St. Lunatics the edge in the secondary with Jovan Cober. I think ByB have the slight edge at receiver with do-it-all savior Rich Humes.

Could this one come down to which QB steps up to the plate now that the real season is among us? Benevento, hasn’t put up 4 TDs through the air since Week 5, while Brennan Burke has thrown multiple picks in each of three of his last four games. I smell one of those 20-18 scorelines.

 

The Goats (5) vs. Frosty Bronsons (12)

Previous meeting: Frosty Bronsons 40, The Goats 26

If I’m a member of Frosty Bronsons I’m getting a lottery ticket this week, because you know you’re lucky when, after squeezing into the playoffs as the last seed, you draw the team you scored the most points on all season as your first round matchup.

Indeed, that Week 4 meeting with The Goats was arguably Frosty’s greatest performance of the season. That being said, a lot has taken place since then, the most glaring of which is that it’s been mostly downhill for the Frosty offense since that June 5th game. In the six weeks since that date, QB James Nowakowski has turned the ball over 16 times while finding the endzone just 21 times, and that’s including his rushing TDs. 

It’s pretty evident that the one true shining star of this team is its defense, which has been there to bail out its struggling offense literally week after week after week.

It’s tough to ask your defense to keep that up for yet another week, especially versus an offense that is coming off a 42-point walloping of St. Lunatics to close out the season.

Still, when you put everything together – how easily Frosty dominated the first matchup, how insanely rock solid their defense is, how largely sluggish The Goats’ has been in the weeks leading up to their season finale– I really feel Frosty should come out victorious in this one.

Then again, it seems every time I pick Frosty’s games the opposite result happens, so it’s probably safe to say they’ll lose by like, 16. 

 

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Be sure to check out this week’s Division D podcast with Simon Dagenais and and Terry Tam at www.youtube.com/flagplus, recorded live on Thursday at 9 p.m. Until next week, Blanchard out.