Weekly Extra Point (Div A & B) – Week 9

Playoffs? (Week 9 edition)

(Note: Yes, the intro to the playoff position breakdown is the one I used in my first stint as a writer. It serves its purpose pretty well, so there’s no need to change it. Enjoy…)

Well, we’re at that time of the year again and everyone’s getting antsy about the playoffs. Those who have clinched are preparing for the postseason, working out what few kinks remain. Those who haven’t will be busy trying to win their remaining games, all the while keeping an eye on the results page every Monday morning. In order to save you guys the time, I’ll spend the next three weeks breaking down the playoff situation and exploring just what needs to happen for what team to get into which spot.

Every year, we receive the same questions about the playoff procedure. Well, to be honest, it’s the same one over and over again: What are the tiebreakers? Well, for public consumption, here they are again: If two teams are tied, the first tiebreaker is wins, obviously. The next is head-to-head matchup (if any). If the two teams haven’t played against each other during the season or if the outcome was a tie, the next tiebreaker is the Divisional Record.

Normally, since there are no conferences or subdivisions in DA and DB, we would ignore this tiebreaker, but with the advent of interdivisional play, divisional record is actually more relevant than it’s ever been, so it remains in play. In the case of DB, two teams played 9 games against DB opponents (Messengers of Happiness and Park Street Elite), while the rest played 8, so we use divisional winning percentage to determine who lands where.

The final tiebreaker is point differential (points for – points against). In the case of a 3-way (or more) tie, the head-to-head tiebreaker is skipped and the remaining divisional or (if need be) differential tiebreakers are used.

I applied any and all tiebreaking procedures when compiling these playoff standings, but please be advised that I wrote the majority of this week’s column late at night and my last math course is a couple of years behind me. Basically, what I’m trying to say is that with this much number-crunching going on, I likely missed something somewhere and your team may have suffered as a result. Don’t worry, it isn’t me who tabulates the final standings so come Week 10, you’ll make it to the playoffs if your team is indeed worthy of the honour. That being said, if there are any errors or glaring omissions, feel free to send me an e-mail and I’ll correct it ASAP.

Position. Team (Record, divisional record, +/-): Week 10 opponent (combined points of remaining opponents)

An asterisk (*) denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth.

Division A

Division A – 3 out of the 4 teams qualify for the playoffs. 1 seed faces 2 seed in a “quarterfinal”. Winner advances to the finals, loser plays the 3 seed the following week in the “semi-final”. Winner of the “semi-final” faces the “quarter-final” winner in the championship game.

DA Finest* (7-2, 4-1, +128): Mercenaries
Rainmakers* (6-3, 3-2, +6): Snookers
Mercenaries (4-5, 2-3, -32): DA Finest
Snookers (4-5, 1-4, -4): Rainmakers

DA Finest have all but clinched the top seed. Even if they lost to the Mercenaries and the Rainmakers beat the Snookers (leaving both teams with identical 7-3 overall records and 4-2 divisional records, also having split their head-to-head match-ups), the disparity in point differential (122) is likely too large to overcome. No matter what happens, we know that the ”quarter-final” game will feature DA Finest vs Rainmakers, part 3. They have locked down the top 2 seeds.

As for the Mercenaries, their win over the Snookers has breathed new life into their quest for the playoffs. Due to their head-to-head advantage over the Snookers, they are in the driver’s position for the last spot. To clinch the 3^rd seed and guarantee a date with the loser of the quarter-final match-up, they need:

a win against DA Finest
a loss against DA Finest coupled with a Snookers loss against the Rainmakers
a tie against DA Finest coupled with a Snookers tie or loss against the Rainmakers

The only way the Snookers can get in is with a win over the Rainmakers and a Mercenaries loss or tie against DA Finest. That’s it. That being said, DA Finest have been on fire lately and the Snookers did beat the Rainmakers once before, so this last scenario is actually plausible. I’m definitely looking forward to seeing it play out.

Division B

Division B – 8 out of the 9 teams qualify for the playoffs. There are no byes. 1 seed vs 8 seed; 2 seed vs 7 seed; 3 seed vs 6 seed; 4 seed vs 5 seed.

Triple Sixers* (7-2, 6-1, +63): Big TDs
Big TDs* (6-3, 5-2, +56): Triple Sixers
Gladiateurs* (5-4, 5-2, -47): Park Street Elite
Darkside* (5-4, 4-3, +47): Messengers of Happiness
Messengers of Happiness* (5-4, 4-4, -10): Darkside
My Ditkas* (3-6, 3-4, -6): Park Street Elite
Park Street Elite (2-6, 2-5, -51): My Ditkas, Gladiateurs
Maniax (2-7, 2-5, -66): Blazers
Blazers (2-7, 1-6, -84): Maniax

The Triple Sixers and Big TDs will face off in a game whose winner will be guaranteed the top seed in the playoffs. Even if they lose, the Sixers can finish no lower than 2^nd. A TDs loss makes things more complicated, as they could potentially end up tied with the Gladiateurs and either Darkside/Messengers of Happiness at 6-4.

The Gladiateurs followed up two big wins over rivals Darkside and Messengers of Happiness with an absolute dud against My Ditkas. That cost them an outside shot at the top seed and puts them in a situation of needing a win over the Park Street Elite to go into the playoffs with some momentum.

Darkside also needs a win to bolster their confidence, as their last win over a quality team was back in Week 4, against a depleted DA Finest roster. Since then, they’ve gone 2-3, with their wins coming over teams with a combined 4 wins. A win over the Messengers of Happiness would go a long way towards legitimizing them.

Speaking of the MoH, they are in a similar situation as they have gone 1-4 since Week 4, back when they were still undefeated and the talk of DB (their lone win came over a DA team, strangely enough). They need the win more than Darkside does, but who knows what to expect from them anymore?

My Ditkas’ win over the Gladiateurs helped them cement a playoff spot (with the Blazers facing the Maniax, it’s guaranteed at least one team will finish 2-7-1 or 2-8, which wouldn’t be enough to displace the Ditkas, whose worst-case finish would be 3-7). They finally showed what they were capable of, and it will be interesting to see if that win was just a flash in the pan, or if they’ve put it together for the stretch run. If they have, we might see some upsets at their hands when the big dance begins.

That leaves 2 spots open for 3 teams. Let’s take a look at the possibilities.

PSE go 0-2: winner of Maniax/Blazers finish 7^th, loser finish 8th.

PSE go 0-2, Maniax and Blazers tie: Maniax finish 7^th, Blazers finish 8^th.

PSE go 1-1: winner of Maniax/Blazers finish 7^th, PSE finish 8^th.

PSE go 1-1, Maniax and Blazers tie: PSE finish 7^th, Maniax finish 8^th.

PSE go 0-1-1: winner of Maniax/Blazers finish 7^th, PSE finish 8^th.

PSE go 0-1-1, Maniax and Blazers tie: If PSE lose their one game by 16 or more points, Maniax finish 7^th, PSE finish 8^th; If PSE lose their one game by 14 or less points, PSE finish 7^th and Maniax finish 8^th. If PSE lose their one game by 15 points, all hell breaks loose.

PSE go 0-0-2: winner of Maniax/Blazers finish 7^th, PSE finish 8^th.

PSE go 0-0-2, Maniax and Blazers tie: PSE finish 7^th, Maniax finish 8^th.

PSE go 1-0-1 or 2-0: PSE finish 7^th, winner of Maniax/Blazers finish 8^th.

PSE go 1-0-1 or 2-0, Maniax and Blazers tie: PSE finish 7^th, Maniax finish 8^th.

Looking over everything, it’s clear that PSE needs a win or a tie in one of their last two games to make the playoffs. If they lose both their games, the Maniax and the Blazers will take the final two playoff spots, and their Week 10 match-up will decide the seeding. If PSE ties or wins a single game, the winner of Maniax/Blazers will get the other playoff spot, and the loser will be eliminated. In that same scenario, if the Maniax and Blazers tie, the Maniax will get in due to their better divisional win percentage.

For the Maniax and Blazers, it’s simple: win and you’re in. Lose, and you need to hope PSE loses both their games. If they don’t, you’re out.

And there you have it.

Catching up with…

The FPF media machine is great for a lot of things, but one area in which I have to admit it can improve significantly is its lack of depth. What I mean by that is our tendency to skim the surface of a story instead of probing deeper and finding more interesting information. Doing this requires effort, attention to detail and, most critically, cooperation from the teams/players. None of that is necessarily easy to achieve on a regular basis.

Since I stopped appearing on the WEPL, my role in FPF was shifted from observing individual teams towards looking at the bigger picture. Due to this change in focus, I’ve had to rely on sometimes-shallow analysis and oft-repeated catchphrases to keep up with several of the teams I now find myself covering. And while that type of information can be useful in certain situations, I find that it generally paints a somewhat inaccurate portrait of a team.

As a result, I decided to take matters into my own hands. Every week, in this segment, I will delve into the dynamics of 2 teams, with the help of one of their key players. The goal here is to provide a fuller picture of the team I’m writing about, while avoiding the clichés we’ve all become too accustomed to hearing/reading on a regular basis. So join me, as I catch up with the…

Maniax

Key losses: Justin Lavallée

Lavallee played QB for the Maniax during W11 and W12, and did a fairly good job. While not as much of a runner as Rapha Beladjat, he brought some mobility to the table and was a solid passer. With Beladjat nursing a lower-body injury that is limiting his ability to run, Lavallee would have been a good asset to have during their last few games.

Key additions: Rapha Beladjat, Gregory Lavaud

Beladjat had not played in FPF since S10, a season that ended with him getting suspended for a signifcant amount of time after an altercation with a referee. While his passing ability is average at best, no player in this league is better at running the ball. His quickness and freakish cuts have left many a defender dumbfounded, grasping at air where there had been a flag only moments before.

Secret weapons: Gregory Lavaud

Lavaud is one of the fastest players on the Maniax, and considering some of the guys who are on this team, that is truly impressive. He’s been mainly used as a shutdown defender for the Maniax defence, as his speed allows him to keep up with most of the WRs in DB. In certain key instances, he’s also been used as a rusher to give the QB a different look and force him into making quicker decisions.

X-Factors: J.-R. Verger

The best jump-ball receiver in FPF, Verger is a player any team would love to have. His incomparable athleticism has allowed him to lead DB in TDs with 16, on only 26 receptions! He’s 3^rd in DB with 507 receiving yards, which averages out to an incredible 19.5 yards per reception. He’s the best weapon the Maniax have. The craziest part is that in the opinion of some of his teammates, he could get even better! All he needs is a bit more focus and killer instinct, and he could truly be unstoppable as a receiver. As it is right now, he’s good for a few highlight-reel plays a game, without truly dominating the game from start to finish. If he develops his offensive game a bit more, watch out.

HOFers: None

Controversy: Past suspensions

Two of the key players in this team’s core, Tony Khoury and Rapha Beladjat, have faced significant disciplinary measures in the past. Both are expected to be one strike away from even more significant punishment, and must stay on their best behaviour in order to avoid harming their team’s chances at a playoff run. The problem has always stemmed from the Maniax style of play, which is quite physical. Unfortunately, sometimes the physical play leads to increased chippiness and eventual altercations (with players and/or referees). The question now becomes whether the Maniax can win games without going over the edge, or if intimidation is an essential factor for their success. So far, the results are inconclusive. In Week 10, with their season on the line, this writer will be holding his breath in anticipation.

What they will need to do to be successful:

What the Maniax need more than anything is balance. Their defence has been quite good, as they are one of only three teams in DB to be allowing an average of less than 30 points per game. Their offence, on the other hand, has been putrid. They are only scoring 21.7 points per game, almost 5 points less than the next lowest scoring offence. Among the 9 starting QBs in DB, Beladjat is ranked last in yards, TDs, completion percentage and QB rating. A lower-body injury is certainly playing a part in those numbers, but something has to change if the Maniax want to go any further. It seems like every play is either a deep ball to Verger or a short pass to Khoury. They need their offense to diversify, they need more players to get involved and they need to help Beladjat out. It’s hard enough to play against some of these FPF defences, but to do so without your strongest asset is impossible. Without the ability to scramble or run, Beladjat is robbed of his explosiveness, and the Maniax offence has suffered as a result. Whether it be with trick plays, or an increased reliance on two QBs in the backfield, the Maniax offence must improve, or the team will start their off-season much sooner than expected.

Blazers

Key losses: Afdaal Martin, Danny Roy, Jeff Moscato, Kenton Lowe

Kentown Lowe was the biggest loss to this team, by far. He led them team in TDs, tied for the lead in receptions and was 3^rd in receiving yardage. He also led the team in passes defended, was 2^nd in tackles and was one of only three players to notch an INT on their defence. He’s a very dynamic player, and a consistent contributor to boot. With him, the Blazers are not a 2-win team.

Key additions: Dilan Daoust, Terry Tamvakologos

Daoust has been a very solid addition to the team. In addition to becoming a regular contributor on offence, he is all over the field on defence, leading the team in tackles (16 more than his closest teammate). He and his brother bring an athleticism and intensity to the defensive unit that isn’t matched by many. Tamvakologos is good at using his girth (he’s kinda thick) and finding holes in the defence. In his prior season playing as Leon Holder’s snapper, he had fairly pedestrian statistics (just as he does this season), but made several key catches during the Darkhorses’ run to the W11 D3 championship. A clutch player and, speaking personally, a great teammate.

Secret weapons: Jerome Baker

Baker is a guy to keep an eye on in future seasons. A solid contributor in his first full season in FPF (also with the Blazers), he has blossomed in the absence of Kenton Lowe. He currently leads in receptions, yards and is 2^nd in TDs. Among receivers in DB, he is 2^nd in yards per reception, trailing only big-play machine J.-R. Verger. His speed and athleticism have allowed him to sneak up on teams who expected other receivers to get targeted more often. Now that everyone knows he’s their top threat, we’ll see if his numbers tail off or if he continues to impress.

X-Factors: Leon Holder

Holder is the prototypical all-or-nothing QB. When he’s on (like in the W11 playoffs with the Darkhorses), few defences can keep up with his dual-threat ability. He can run and pass equally well, and doesn’t rely too much on one or the other to move the beanbags, which helps keep his offence unpredictable. That being said, when he’s struggles, he struggles hard. He’s definitely a risk-taker, and his numbers reflect that. In his 4 seasons as a starting QB in FPF, he’s finished in the top 10 for most INTs every time (3 times in the top 5). This season, he’s thrown for more yards, more TDs AND more INTs than his prior outings. We’ve seen some of the good, some of the bad, and plenty of the average from Holder. With 1 game left and the playoffs potentially on the line, it’s time for good Leon Holder to take over. If he doesn’t, the Blazers might be out of luck.

HOFers: None

Controversy: Roster issues

Since their inception (W12), the Blazers have had trouble fielding a consistent roster. They’ve often had to add a combination of big names from higher divisions (Akked Moore, Carmine Pollice, Chad Byers, Karim Binette) and other players near or around the field at game-time just to have enough guys to start. In the past 2 seasons, they’ve had 11 players play 3 games or less. With that much turnover, it’s very difficult to build momentum. This season has seen a bit more consistency with the core, but one big piece has missed a significant amount of games: Sean Kennedy. He’s one of their best players, and he’s only played 4 games due to work schedule-related issues. He needs to participate in Week 10’s game against the Maniax or he won’t be eligible for the playoffs (if they make it).

What they will need to do to be successful:

The Blazers seem to have a decent combination of what it takes to be successful at this level. They have speed, they have athleticism, they have veteran experience, they have big-play guys, they have role-players and, most importantly, they have a QB who’s won a championship. And yet, somehow, they just can’t seem to put it all together. While it’s obvious that Leon Holder needs to play more consistently for this team to win games consistently, I would hesitate to put all the blame for this season on him. This is a team that needs to learn how to win. Leon Holder and Rob White are good leaders, but the onus is on the younger players to start to share that load as well. The Blazers unfortunately have a tendency to absolutely implode when things don’t go their way. In FPF, a comeback is only a few big plays away, and they definitely have the players who can make those plays. But attitude is as important as talent, and I believe that’s the most important thing holding the Blazers from being a bonafide playoff contender.

That’s it for this week.

Special thanks to:

Tony Khoury, for the information about the Maniax.
Terry Tamvakologos, for the information about the Blazers.
aaaaaand last but not least, the Daron Basmadjian Fan Club. I don’t want to jinx it…

Think I’m wrong? Think I suck? Think I’m great? Think anything? Drop me a line at [email protected] and let me know how you feel. Whether it be interesting topics for the column, game facts I may have missed in my coverage or just some good old-fashioned hate mail, I welcome any and all comments.