Week 10 and playoff implications for Tier 3

Breaking down Week 10

What’s up guys! We are coming down the final stretch of the regular season and the standings are shaping up nicely. 4 wins looks like the cutoff to get a double elimination game, and we have a whopping 7 teams at 4 wins. Let’s break it down.

Bandits (2-3-1, 26.5PA per game)

Bandits must win both their games versus West Island Boys (edit: ) and Joes Panini. These are two very tough matchups and Emile Skaf will have to play out of his mind to match those two very potent offenses. One thing going for them is their decent 26.5PA per game, and a 4-3-1 record will be enough to squeeze into the top 10. At the moment, their chances are bleak and I expect them to lose both games, and if they do they will slide down the rankings.

New Diablos (3-4-0, 28.6PA per game)

It’s not looking great either for New Diablos, as they have to face the ever solid Penetrators, who also need a win. I expect a closely contested dual between two solid quarterbacks and rosters. Unfortunately for New Diablos, I think they will lose and therefore also lose on the double elim. Francois Martin is one of the best at driving the field in the division but will need to keep a level head and remain patient. Also, I recommend looking away from Rocco Cristiano.

Lightwork (4-3-0, 26.1PA per game)

One of the most surprising teams in Tier 3, and led by Tyler Havlena, Lightwork are still on the outside looking in when it comes to that double elimination game. They still have a chance but will have to go through Joes Panini, a nightmare matchup at this stage. Tyler Havlena will need to keep spreading the ball but he will need his defense to get stops but the connection between Matthew and AJ Zeppetelli will keep them on their toes and might open the field up for the other really solid players on the squad.

Trapstars (4-3, 25.7PA per game)

Trapstars get an easier matchup than the previously mentioned teams, but it’s not necessarily going to be an easy game. Ryan Garber has been solid throughout the season and he’s thrown 17TDs and only 2 interceptions in his last three games. 3 wins in a row, and we’re now looking at Trapstars as potential contenders, even without Cooper Young. James Wiseman has really stepped it up offensively and Garber has been trusting him more and more. West Island Knights are solid, very athletic but need to learn the game a bit more. Trapstars theoretically shouldn’t have issues scoring against them and with Garber’s confidence being really high right now, I expect them to win and get in that top 10.

Mengoose (4-3, 22.4PA)

I obviously had some concerns about Felix-Antoine Lavigne’s prowess at quarterback, and I can’t really say they have been totally addressed, but mostly. He’s finally found his groove and has 13TDs and only 1 interception in his past three games, and has notably beaten Joes Panini. Their defense has been particularly impressive, allowing 20 or less points in those three games. Penetrators will be a tough ask, and I’m not betting on Mengoose to win, and though I would be surprised if they win, I wouldn’t consider it as bad of a loss for Penetrators. Regardless, even if they lose, they might still get in the top 10 due to their very low points against.

Joes Panini (4-2, 22.3PA)

I know Matthew Zeppetelli has some regrets about the loss to Mengoose, though I was informed that he was sick as a dog, so I will let it slide. Perhaps we’ve been underrating Mengoose, and now it doesn’t look as bad of a loss as it did when it happened. They should beat both Bandits and Lightwork and a 6-2 record is most likely at this point. The roster is solid from top to bottom and the connection between the brothers is (probably) unmatched in Tier 3. 

The Penetrators (4-2, 19PA per game)

My preseason favorites are better than their record shows. The losses were to two great teams and they hung with them. Their defense, led by Rocco Cristiano is top tier, and Justin Goodman has been very solid. New Diablos and Mengoose are definitely games in which they’re favorites, but aren’t guaranteed dubs. If their defense keeps dominating, Justin Goodman won’t have to do too much to get out of those games with the win.

Team Sexy (4-2-1, 22.7PA per game)

In N’ Out will probably be a pretty easy win for this team, which will guarantee them a top 10 seed. Benjamin Berbrier has been way better than expected, and Sam Anastasopoulos has shown why he deserves some consideration for best defensive player in tier 3, while also being a great offensive player. This team is a bit under the radar but make no mistake, they will be a threat for the championship.

Born in the 80’s (4-2-1,  31.1PA per game)

That points against is a bit rough, but they’re still likely to get a double elimination game, even if they lose to Illegal Use of Hands, thanks to that tie against West Island Boys. David De Andrade has kept improving at the quarterback position, and Craig Browning has been a revelation at receiver. The team gets a decent amount of interceptions, but still allows a lot of points, which might lead to them falling down the standings in case of a multi-team tie. 

Score predictions for the rest of the season and how the standings would look like

Bandits vs. West Island Boys

In N’ Out vs. Team Sexy

New Diablos vs. The Penetrators

Wide Open Bar vs. In N’ Out

Bleue Dry vs. The Rudeboyz

Trapstars vs. West Island Knights

Bebes Dragons Magiques vs. Rico Ryders

Griffnation vs. West Island Knights

Born in the 80s vs. Illegal Use of Hands

Bandits vs. Joes Panini

Killer Rays vs. Idaho Udapimps

Joes Panini vs. Lightwork

The Penetrators vs. Mengoose

Standings (projected) after Week 10

Illegal Use of Hands(#1, 8-0-0)

Idaho Udapimps (#2, 8-0-0)

West Island Boys (#3, 7-0-1)

The Penetrators (#4, 6-2-0)

Joes Panini (#5, 6-2-0)

Team Sexy (#6, 5-2-1)

Trapstars (#7, 5-3-0)

Killer Rays (#8, 5-3-0)

Born in the 80s (#9, 4-3-1)

Mengoose (#10,4-4-0)

Lightwork (#11, 4-4-0)

New Diablos (#12, 3-5-0)

Bleue Dry (#13, 3-5-0)

Griffnation (#14, 3-5-0)

Rico Ryders (#15, 3-5-0)

Bandits (#16, 2-5-1)

The Rudeboyz (#17, 2-6-0)

Bebes Dragons Magiques (#18, 2-6-0)

Wide Open Bar (#19, 2-6-0)

In N’ Out (#20, 0-8-0)

West Island Knights (#21, 0-8-0)

Playoff tiebreaker implications

#1 seed: Illegal Use of Hands most likely grab that number one seed due to their very low points against, which leaves Idaho Udapimps at #2

#4 seed: The Penetrators get the #4 seed thanks to their low points against, which leaves Joes Panini with the 5th seed.

#7 seed: Trapstars jump over Killer Rays thanks to their win against them, Killer Rays would end up #8.

#10 seed: Mengoose has 26 less points against up to this point, and Lightwork would then need to allow 26 or more points less than Mengoose in their final game to get the double elimination game, if they both lose.

#12 seed: A lot of things can move between the #12 to #15 seeds, depending on how many points they allow in their final game. 

#17 seed: Seeds #17 to #19 can move depending on how many points are allowed in the final game.

#20 seed: In N’ Out have a 26 point against lead over West Island Knights.

First round matchups:

In N’ Out vs. West Island Knights in the play-in

Trapstars (7) vs. Mengoose (10)

Killer Rays (8) vs. Born in the 80s (9)

Bleue Dry (13) vs. West Island Knights (20)

Griffnation (14) vs. Wide Open Bar (19)

Rico Ryders (15) vs. Bebes Dragons Magiques (18)

Bandits (16) vs. The Rudeboyz (17)

The scores were unfortunately not yet uploaded for Saturday Nov. 4th at the time of writing this article, which meant I had to do without, though the results in those games might have significantly altered these predictions.

Here you have it for this article! My award predictions will come out during the week.