Tier 3 and 4 Semi-Final and Pre Semi-Final Previews

Dang! We had a TON of action develop this past week in the FPF Knockout Round, especially in Tier 3, where we had 10 games played since Monday. Tier 4 was much more quiet with only the Sunday games I previewed last week being played. But first, let’s bid adieu to the eliminated teams from this week, as we say goodbye to Ravens, Voodoo, Sule Fess, Bandits, Warrior, Trapstars, Killer Rays and Blue Dreamers.

And now we move to preview the next round of games in both Tier 3 and 4. We started with Tier 3 last week, so let’s flip it this time and start with Tier 4.

Tier 4 Playoff Preview – Sunday Nov. 27th and Monday Nov 28th in St Laurent

Let’s jump right into it as there are 3 games to preview, so let’s start with the PRIMETIME matchup, perhaps a Finals preview, the #1 seeded Save The Turftles vs. the #2 seeded Penetrators

Double Elimination Game – Monday Nov. 28th

Save The Turftles (1) vs. The Penetrators (2)

Both teams had byes the first week and round of the Tier 4 playoffs and both came off Quarter Final wins to meet each other here in the Semi-Final. The Turftles struggled as the clear favorite in their matchup against Red Dragons while The Penetrators showed a lot of mental and physical fortitude against WIB 2.0. Going into each of their games, Vince Cheung was the hotter of the 2 QB’s, yet it was Justin Goodman that had the better of the 2 QB performances.

While I did get the 32 points for WIB 2.0 right on target, Goodman was able to generate 2 more touchdowns than what I predicted, and good on him. He was able to, like I mentioned in last week’s article he should, do a beautiful job of spreading the targets around the entire offense, while still being able to make CTA guest appearance, Nic Fon, the primary receiver with 7 reception on all 7 targets for 60 yards and 3 TDs. He looks best when rolling out of the pocket and being able to hit receivers in stride, with the defenses caught out of position rolling with him. When he’s able to have the triple threat of standing in the pocket, rolling out of the pocket to hit his receivers as well as use his legs to run downfield, he is able to get the offense into an unstoppable rhythm that no one in the Tier can stop. The offense had failed to look like that in several weeks and it had me just a tad concerned on whether the previously well-oiled machine of an offense could just flip the switch against WIB 2.0. While I don’t believe in “flipping the switch”, I think it’s better explained with all the Penetrator players knowing it would take their best effort from every player to beat WIB 2.0, and that was clearly the case for the Penetrators. This is a scary proposition for The Turftles, as it is incredibly difficult to stop The Penetrators when they are hitting on all cylinders on offense. It means that the path to victory is getting 1 stop AND scoring on every one of your drives, which puts a lot of pressure on ANY offense in FPF. What makes the Penetrators a cut above Tier 4 is not only their execution, play design and athleticism, but their knowledge of the game and knowing how to handle game situations. For example, in their knockout game against WIB 2.0, after scoring the touchdown to go up by 1 point with about 2 mins left in the game, they go for the onside kick and, not only did they convert it, but, and I’m not sure if it was done on purpose because that would be extremely difficult to accomplish on a deep ball, but Nic Fon was tackled at the 1 yard line which was the best thing that could have happened for The Penetrators. Goodman was composed and on the next 3 plays, since nothing was an easy TD pass, he was comfortable simply throwing the ball out of the endzone to take plays away from the West Island Boys. And of course, to add salt to the waters, he was able to score on 4th down. While the play-by-play says they then went for a 1 point attempt, I believe that was incorrect and they actually decided to go for 2 points to make it a 9-point game, since, again, they are very mindful of the golden 9-point, 2 possession lead, even when emotions are at such a high. It’s critical plays and under-stated game management examples like the these that often give The Penetrators the edge in games against their opponents and Save The Turftles not only need to come ready physically to make plays, but be on-par with The Penetrators in the mental and decision-making aspect of the game.

Okay, that was much less X’s and O’s breakdown from The Penetrators side, but I honestly believe that since this will be such a close game, game management is increasingly important and I needed to state how good The Penetrators are good at it. A repeat performance of their game against WIB 2.0 is how they beat The Turftles (minus the pick 6 thrown by Goodman… they could do without that). They need key contributions like they did from Noah Assayag who led the way with 76 yards receiving and Joseph Chalhoub who had a key 4th down conversion and a big touchdown on 3rd down. Now, different from their past performance, while they need to have a plan ready to shut down Cheung in the run, I think it’s a mistake to make a full game plan to stop it at all costs. For example, I don’t believe there’s a need to send a double rush, in fact, I think that would be a costly mistake, as Cheung is more than comfortable standing in the pocket and hitting a wide open receiver. I think simply having a spy, if and only if, Cheung is eating them alive in the run game would be enough. But I like to remind that the ball travels wayyy faster than one person running the ball from 5 in the back field. The passing game is flag’s claim to successful offenses, and I think Cheung has been focusing on that all year to prepare himself for these playoff games where teams will try to take the run game away. And so begins the chess match that is football!

Alright, from the Turftles side of things, they have now won 6 games in a row and haven’t lost a game since September 19th, when they faced off against … that’s right … The Penetrators. While the Turftles had a surprisingly tough first half against Red Dragons, it’s good that they had a playoff game where they were battle-tested. Much better play a tightly contested playoff-like game than a blowout, as that’s the type of games they are going to be playing from here on out. The greatest thing about the this Turftles offense that The Penetrators will have trouble stopping is, like for WIB 2.0, the depth at receiver the Turftles possess. They have a combination of tall, rangy, as well as short and speedsters across the board that are all capable of making the catch in traffic. Where a lot of important plays will happen will be 4th down, when Cheung may decide to keep the ball in his hands for a 1st down. That is where The Penetrators will need to account for the run, as where they usually might play a man defense, may be a problem with Cheung‘s running ability. Defensively, Thomas Chaussé will absolutely need to (and can) take the deep ball away from the Penetrators that allows them to stretch the field and then hit intermediate holes. If Goodman steers clear of Chaussé, both Guilaume Dubois and Vincent Cheung will need to create a turnover for their team. With The Penetrators moving the ball the way they do, a turnover, possibly even 2 will be required if the Turftles will win this game. That and KEY TACKLES that prevent runners from making a 4 yard catch turn into 14 yards. The Turftles are one of the better tackling teams, and whether it’s deflagging Goodman when he’s running or when he’s able to hit a receiver while rolling to one side, will be key for the Turftles stopping The Penetrators.

Prediction: Alright readers, here it is, prediction time. With things trending for The Penetrators, and their ability to convert at a higher clip than the Turftles, gimme the Penetrators to go straight into the final. Score: The Penetrators 39 – 32 Save The Turftles

Single Elimination Games – Sunday Nov. 27th

WIB 2.0 (3) vs TuneSquad (8)

WIB 2.0 played a very strong game against The Penetrators and put up the 32 points I predicted they would, and straight up, if they put up another 32 against TuneSquad, the game is done and dusted as TuneSquad doesn’t have the firepower to consistently put up 30 points. In fact, not once this entire season did they hit the 30 point mark. Clearly, this is not the path to victory for TuneSquad.

From the WIB 2.0 perspective, Zack Stacey simply has to play this like any other regular season game and run his offense as he has since taking over in Week 3. He can use his favorite weapon in Skylar Bayliff but can equally get anyone else just as involved, as, even Nic Fon suggested, possess perhaps the best wide receiving core in Tier 4. This side is just oozing with talent, even on the defensive side of the ball, where they have a Division 1-level player in Julian McLaren-Thompson playing in Tier 4. Just LOL and WTF. No surprise he has the ability to take an INT to the house like he did against The Penetrators, as the game speed is played at such a different level, that he’s able to read Quarterbacks like a book. Whoever lines up at QB for TuneSquad, they need to steer clear of McLaren-Thompson.

For TuneSquad, there are only a handful of game scripts that see them winning this game. I’ll describe the one that they have the most control over. Since WIB 2.0 has proven that they can average a TD in just 3-4 plays, TuneSquad will NEED to slow this game down. And before thinking it’s impossible, it’s not. I would know. I was just given 4 possessions in my previous game because of the way both teams in my game were chewing the clock. It was definitely the other team’s game plan and it led to a 19-18 game. The best way to prevent a team from scoring 5 TD’s (30 points) is by literally making that impossible and giving them 4 possessions. Now, in order to do that, it’s a must for TuneSquad to be able to move the ball 4-5 yards at a time and pick up first downs. Another way they can pick up first downs is via penalty. With WIB 2.0 looking to be more aggressive on D for an interception, TuneSquad will need to run good patterns and get the inside edge on defenders, either forcing them into hooking and holding them, or get them to hold them on double-moves. What’s more frustrating than a 4th-and-8, 4th-and-10 defensive situation that you prevent a 1st down on, just to be called on a 5-yard holding penalty with an automatic first down. That’s the type of deflating plays that TuneSquad will need to create and mound frustration on WIB 2.0’s side. As good as Skylar Bayliff is, he is prone to losing his cool, as evidenced with an OC penalty against The Penetrators. Getting him off the field for 10 plays would be huge, along with the 10-yard penalty and automatic first down.

Keys to Victory

WIB 2.0 will win if:

They put up 5 TD’s
They get 2 stops on defense
Zack Stacey throws 1 INT or less

TuneSquad will win if:

They keep WIB 2.0 to a minimum of 5 possessions, hopefully one of those possessions is 1 or 2 plays remaining in the first half.
If Garner Ross doesn’t throw an INT and scores on every one of his possessions
They have over 10 first downs in the game.

Prediction: WIB 2.0 38 – 19 TuneSquad

Red Dragons (4) vs. Deep Ballz (7)

Red Dragons’ knockout round has seen them go 1-1, as they beat The Step Bros quite handedly 31-21 and then played a tightly contested loss to the #1 seed Save The Turftles, 19-25. In that loss, Charles Beauchemin was the star that almost pulled off the upset of Tier 4. He grabbed 8 balls on 9 targets for 62 yards and 2 receiving TD’s while also adding a key interception for Red Dragons. They also played tight defensively and contested a lot of Cheung‘s passes, as he only completed 52% of his passes. They will need more of that against Deep Ballz, but will need to do a better job of defending the running QB, as Cheung was able to take 3 runs for 58 yards. Bruno Provencher is VERY capable of taking off downfield, so while that may happen, the Dragons will need to do a better job of coming down with the first tackle and making sure Provencher doesn’t get loose for any 10+ yard runs.

Focusing now on this playoff game, Guillaume Boulanger needs to do a better job of being more accurate on the short balls. He completed only 43.8% of his passes and if he wants to lead more sustained drives that end up with 6 points, he needs to be more accurate with his passes. Perhaps he was under a lot of pressure from one of the Tier’s best rushers in Tony Vo, which no one on Deep Ballz presents as the same threat, although if Francois Rocheleau rushes, he is pretty good at containing a running QB, which Boulanger can do, but not as a big threat. Instead, Boulanger needs to be careful with the deep shots, as you’ve got guys like Rory Kelly and Jérôme Lavallée hovering the deeps that are extremely talented. Red Dragons, as we’ve mentioned, at times look very good, and can also look quite disorganized. We got both Dragons, one in each half against the Turftles. They were able to put up 19 points in the first half to only then put up a big donut in the 2nd half. I don’t have to be a very insightful analyst to say that they need more of their 1st half performance and less of their 2nd half performance. What I will say is that even if you are up 19-12 at halftime, you gotta keep playing your game and impose your will on opponents. You can’t let any team, especially good one’s an inch, or else you allow them to creep back into games and good teams will find ways to make you pay for doing so.

As for Deep Ballz going into this game, they started the knockout round with a bye and then eliminated a good Primetime team two weeks ago in convincing fashion, 39-7. I think the “Big 3” of Deep Ballz on offence, between Francois Rocheleau, Rory Kelly, and Victor Rifiorati will cause issues for the Red Dragons defense, as even if you decide to take 1 of those guys away, the other 2 are very capable of getting the best of a defense. Against Primetime, that receiver was Victor Rifiorati, as he caught a 36-yarder, an 8-yarder, a 40-bomb TD and an 11-yard first down which resulted in a team-leading 95 yard performance. The problem is that if Red Dragons focus on taking him away, it literally easily be Rocheleau or Kelly catching those big 36 and 40 yarders. While Bruno Provencher looks to be passing more often, he should still have the running option on 3rd or 4th-and-short situations, as it’s 1 more thing for the Red Dragon defense to cover, and they showed that they struggled against it with the Cheung run.

The strength of this Deep Ballz team though, is the defense. They have a good combination of speed and size, as well as natural athletic ability, perhaps even greater than the Red Dragons. They are tough to get around and are good at tackling to prevent the extra yards from being gained. It’s one that the Red Dragons offense might have difficulties picking up first downs through the intermediate and deep ball. Rather, Red Dragons will likely see more success picking up first downs via the methodical, short approach as the Deep Ballz safeties are too strong.

Prediction: This one will actually be a pretty close game, but I gotta go with the lower seeded Deep Ballz here, Deep Ballz 27 – 18 Red Dragons

Tier 3 Playoff Preview – Sunday Nov. 27th and Monday Nov 28th in St Laurent

Kiss My Inlaws (2) Dime and Bougie (4)

Kiss My Inlaws (2)

vs.

**Dime and Bougie (4)**

FINALLY, these two teams will do battle! What’s great about this tournament format is that this MAY be the first of 2 matchups between these 2 teams, as they can once again meet in the finals. But first, they meet in the Semi-Final so let’s break it down.

First, Dime and Bougie are coming off a very tight 20-18 victory over Bruins. The game didn’t start great for Dime and Bougie, as Jules Regimbald was intercepted on the first drive of the game and couldn’t convert on 4th and 7 on their 2nd drive and fell behind 12-0 early. But who was it to bring them right back into the game, but Félix Boutet, with the post-corner that’s been seen all over FPF’s instagram page. It was that, and then 2 back-to-back defensive stops, one to end the half to prevent the Bruins from scoring, and then a pick on the opening drive of the 2nd half that Nathan Desjardins was able to get into the endzone that, with the XP convert, that put Dime and Bougie ahead for the first time in the game. Why mention all this ? Other than a small recap of their game, these are the things that will allow Dime and Bougie to come out on top against Kiss My Inlaws: A combination of that Félix Boutet dynamite speed and strong defensive play led by Nathan Desjardins who had 2 INTs against Gab Wiseman. That said, if D&B want to win against KMI, they will also need a better 1st half performance and overall performance from Jules. If you were to say that Jules would go 10/20 with 93 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT, I would have told you they would lose to the Bruins. He simply needs to be better against Kiss My Inlaws from the get-go, although him and his teammates did get a prototypical “playoff victory”, where they had to dig deep and pull out the victory in an ugly fashion.

And what’s to say about Kiss My Inlaws? They too had to pull out an ugly victory against Blue Dreamers, but one that was rooted in a time-consuming, last drive of the game, where the offense ensured they were the team that had the ball last, regardless of whether they scored or not. With over 3 minutes left in the game, they would consume all that time and take it down to 2 plays remaining, where both Lucas Quenneville and Kenny Boutillier played the role of hero, first with Quenneville coming down the TD and Boutillier with the Game-winning extra point play. That’s the strength of the KMI offense, is that anyone on the team can be the hero on any given night, and what makes them hard to defend. Defensively, they will, obviously, need to be aware of that Boutet speed, but also sneaky good is Fritzgerald Cenatus, so special attention will need to be had on this dynamic duo. Luckily for KMI, the team will be more well rounded, as snapper and great defender, David de Andrade will be poised to make his return, after unable to be present for the Monday matchup against Blue Dreamers, which is a huge boost to the team.

Like Alexi Dubois mentioned on CTA, this one is likely to be an offensive shootout, with whichever defense can get 2 stops, perhaps even 1 stop is your winner. That’s as far as I will go for a prediction, see you on the field Dime and Bougie 🙂

Single Elimination Game

Arouch (1) vs Bruins (3)

Arouch has had a CRAZY 7 days. First, they lose to the 8th seed Blue Dreamers by 1 point on Sunday. Then, they play the next day against Ravens and go down early, 19-0, only to make a crazy comeback and play an overtime game which they win 32-31. They then play on Wednesday, a 2 point game in which they come out on top, 28-26 over the Warriors, and then play immediately after, with a re-match against Blue Dreamers who knocked them out of their double-elimination status! MY god, talk about FPF drama! And the result? They shut down the Blue Dreamer offense for a 19-6 victory and are able to take a breathe for a few days, as they get ready to face off against the Bruins. This team has faced some adversity and has come through so far. Now, as Eagle mentioned on CTA, they have yet to face their next opponent or any of their potential future opponents. While we will soon see how good they are, give props to Arouch for winning in all kinds of different game scenarios.

Now, their matchup against Bruins. These 2 teams are BIG BOYS. I think both teams actually run very similar offenses, with Arouch incorporating a little more crossing routes than what the Bruins like. A lot of this game will come to how well Eric Lalonde reads the defense and just take the what the defense gives him. This Arouch offense is usually set around the 3-headed monster of Simon Losier, Thomas Legault and Bastien Phaneuf-Thibault, but Antoine Préfontaine has been the X-factor in their playoff run, and already has as many receptions, yards and TD’s in 4 playoff games as he did in 6 regular season games. He’s been a darkhorse for them, and if they can roll a 4th option at the Bruins, the Bruins D will have trouble containing all of Arouch’s weapons. As for the Arouch defense, I think they matchup well against the Bruins offense, with the exception of 1 thing. Being able to defend the Gab Wiseman run. If Wiseman can continuously slip by the big Arouch defenders for first downs, it will force Arouch to defend closer, which then Wiseman can adjust to. He would much rather the defense adapt to his offense than the other way around, and his running ability can absolutely do that. If Arouch can contain the run from the beginning, then good luck trying to throw over giants like Simon Losier and Bastien Phaneuf-Thibault, as Wiseman doesn’t have that kind of arm.

For the Bruins side, they can run their regular offense, but once Arouch figures it out, Wiseman needs to do more than just make slight modifications to the same plays. It may be too late into the season to start adding new plays, that even if they are good plays, the timing with the receivers hasn’t been built over the course of the year. The Bruins offense is fortunate for having ball-winners in the air like Tahnyus Steer, Jocelyn Calixte and Zach Zwirn, but this Arouch defense has their fair share of guy that can go up and do the same. One of the key factors in this game for the Bruins will be when they are on defense, facing key 3rd and 4th down situations. Normally Lalonde is not a running QB, but he does buy time by rolling out. Wiseman‘s rushing could be HUGE to force Arouch into 3rd and 4th-and-long situations where Arouch are prone to deciding to punt.

Overall, the game will be very tight, and medium-scoring. I see both teams with 4 TDs, and if 1 team can return an INT for 6, that could be the difference in this game.

Prediction: Arouch 27 – 26 Bruins – an overtime special!

Epilogue

Alright, those are the in-depth matchup previews for Tier 3 and 4. For the breakdown of all the other Tiers, follow Alexi as he was a one-man show on CTA!