The Wrath of Khan (D2) – Playoff Preview (Round 1)

The start of elimination weekend is here, and D2 has produced the best 12 teams that will be chasing the title during this 1-month process of survival of the fittest. The Shockers, Messengers of Happiness, Wolfpack, and Click Clack all have a well deserved week off, having earned a bye week. But I am confident that these teams will be keeping a close eye on their future potential matchups this weekend.

In what is considered to be the group of death (Conference A) among the two conferences, any team has the ability to reach the finals. The questions that might arise for each of the teams are as follows. Is there a chance that the Renegades can make it to the finals after being promoted to D2? Can the Shockers get over the hump and win a meaningful game? Are the Messengers of Happiness the best team in D2? Can the Texas All-Stars be able to contain their emotions, and put together a flawless 48-minute football game? Are the Waterbuffaloes the most dangerous team? Can the Thundering Herd win with their slow down methodical style of play?  These questions will be answered this weekend, and the weeks to follow. But for now, we will concentrate on the wild-card games.

The first D2 wild card game of the weekend will feature Notre Dame versus the Pacmen. This game has storylines within storylines. For starters, it will be the battle of cousins as team captains, Richard Shefteshy (Notre Dame), Phil Ackaoui (Pacmen) will lead their respective squads into this battle. Then there is the D1 angle, as Montreal’s Finest teammates, Kishon Thompson (Notre Dame), and this scribe (Notre Dame) will take on their quarterback Kevin Wyeth (Pacmen). This is an unusual clash of the titans because in their only meeting during the regular season, Notre Dame thoroughly outplayed the then lowly regarded Pacmen team and won 58-32. In fact, many predicted that the demise of the Pacmen was at the front of their door step. But with the signing of Kevin Wyeth, the Pacmen have become reinvigorated to the point where they believe they can make a deep playoff run. However, the main question that is still sticking for the Pacmen, is their defense. Can they win a game by making a stop with their questionable defense? So far this season, they have amassed a mere 7 interceptions. If they wish to have any success, they will need to be more aggressive when the football is in the air against a more athletic Notre Dame team.

On the other hand, Notre Dame has relied on their defense to win games this season. As mush preseason fanfare as this team had received for dropping down to D2, the real question remains: can Richard Shefteshy quarterback his team to the promised land and not lean on the defense for the victory? Notre Dame’s highest output was ironically their 58 points against the Pacmen. But beyond that performance, in the other 9 games, they have only once scored 30 points, and that was in a losing cause to Turf Toe Inc.

If the scenario plays out where this game ends up as a high scoring affair, the advantage favours the Pacmen. But if this becomes a ball control game, then Notre Dame will have the decisive edge against the upstart Pacmen. However, I like Notre Dame to pull this one out.

In what will be a very intriguing battle of speed versus football IQ, the Texas All-Stars take on the Waterbuffaloes. In their week 1 matchup, the All-Stars were victorious 39-24 over the Buffaloes. However, the Buffaloes were sans Chad Byers who, to date, has been the difference maker for this team in reaching the playoffs.

In this upcoming second tilt between these two clubs, will it be the mastery of Byers that will set the tone in helping the Buffaloes win? For the Buffaloes to be successful, Byers has to have his own way in controlling the pace of the game. Furthermore, he has this ability to get under the skin of his opponents, which may prove to be beneficial against an emotional All-Stars team. Then throw in the experience of Craig O’Brien who had led this very same team to an upset win over the defunct High Rollerz in last year’s winter playoffs. Add some Pat Lanctot to the recipe, that trio meal will be devastating to the stomach. The one advantage that the Buffaloes have, is their ability to have two quarterbacks in the same backfield during the play. As a result, this can stretch a defense that will open up more gaps in the coverage scheme. Will the All-Stars be able to make the correct adjustments if this scenario plays out? If they can’t, the Buffaloes will exploit their lack of coverage.  

The All-Stars know that they are one of the most athletically gifted teams in D2. However, they have yet to develop a keen sense when it comes to playing a more complete game, rather than relying on their speed. Throughout the season, on numerous occasions, they have depended far too much on their athleticism to make the play. The All-Stars cannot come into this foray with too relaxed a mindset. If they are able to be focused, and play a disciplined game, there is no doubt they will be a tough out.

This game will come down to who plays smarter football. Every D2 team in Conference A knows that the Waterbuffaloes are the team that they did not want to face in the playoffs. In the last 5 regular season games, the Buffaloes have put up 30-plus points. For the Buffaloes to have any success, they will need to slow down the tempo. If this becomes a high scoring affair, the edge will have to go to the Texas All-Stars because they can keep up the scoring pace, and will throw in a big play or two on defence, so my pick is the Texas All-Stars.
 

The battle between the Phoenix and Homosapiens presents some excellent matchups within the game. In the midseason clash between these two clubs, the Sapiens barely came out on-top by a single point over the energetic Phoenix.

In watching the first matchup, Sapiens quarterback, Ben Leger, demonstrated how dominant he was against a stout Phoenix defense. Throughout the night, he had the Phoenix team guessing which side he was throwing to as he had 4-touchdown passes. For the Sapiens to have any chance, they will need Leger to make the correct reads, because of the ball hawking ability his opponents have. Furthermore, no one should forget the fine form of Justin Cote who had 3 touchdowns catches in their first encounter that can help make it easier on Leger.

The key element for the Phoenix is their defense. It seemed they had no emotion on the football field when they lost to the Sapiens. This team is based on momentum swings, and the voice of their team, Jason Barr (2009, D2, defensive player of the year) has to keep his team motivated. Barr has been everywhere on the field making game changing plays. Opposing teams have yet to learn not to throw to his side because most likely he will make a play on the ball. Moreover, the one player on the Phoenix team that will have the biggest task in stopping Ben Leger is their pass rusher, Nick Raymond. He (Raymond) was successful against Leger, as he amassed 3 sacks against the unorthodox triggerman. If Raymond is able to duplicate the performance, this will ease the burden on the Phoenix offense and in-particular, quarterback, Martin Tougas, who can control the game with his ability to throw and run the football.

The Phoenix have not allowed an opponent to score 30 or more points on their defense this season, and unless Leger can repeat his heroic performance against this tough defense, the Phoenix will win this game quite easily.    
 

Finally, the one game that might be a blowout from the get-go, the Nixon’s Renegades will take on the Thundering Herd. The last time these teams dueled, the Renegades had their emergency starter, Liam Mahoney taking the snaps because option “A”, Scott Mironowicz, and option “B”, Kirby Short were MIA. Mahoney did a solid job in 32-0 shutout of the Herd.

Now, with both quarterback options back in the fold, the Renegades look ready for a deep playoff run. Sure, the mouthpiece of the team, Dale Williams is out with a lower body injury, but he will still be prominent on the sidelines by cheering on his team. But can the Herd stop the unflappable speed of Robbie Robinson, Liam Mahoney, and Mironwicz on the offense? Furthermore, their defense has been solid as they have allowed 20-points or less in 5 games this season. Keep in-mind, I have yet to mention the likes of Jamal Pierre, Mike Dwyer, and Jason Prince who provided the other big plays for the team. This team has depth, talent, and the determination to make a deep run during the playoffs.

The Herd has experienced many things this season. They lost their quarterback, Tom Cesari for the season, Jamil Springer continues to pout on and off the field, and they continue to win games. For the Herd to have any realistic chance to win this weekend, they will need quarterback, Danny Donovan to play well beyond expectations. That means, he need to control the huddle, and make sure he is not bullied by his teammates. So far, in six games he has played this season, he is averaging a paltry 73.3 passing yards per game. This will not bode well against a Renegades team that has accumulated 17 interceptions, and 12 sacks. Finally, they need to make sure the likes of Troy Jarrett and Matt Bond, their best defenders, can neutralize the speed of the Renegades. This is a tall order for the Herd, but if they can achieve this task list, then they have chance, albeit more comparable to a glimmer of hope.

The end result is that the Herd are in over their heads. I cannot see the Renegades making any mistakes against an underachieving Herd team. The Renegades win this game quite easily.
 

Percentages%

0%, that the Shockers will tie this weekend.

8%, that the Shockers will get the matchup they want in the second round of the playoffs.

9%, that Richard Shefteshy will throw for 8 touchdowns this weekend, like he did in his first encounter with the Pacmen.  

14%, that Renegades quarterback, Scott Mironwicz will throw for 2 touchdowns passes and rush for 2 touchdowns this weekend against the Thundering Herd.

18%, that Jason Barr will have an interception against the Homosapiens this weekend.

24%, that at least 1 D2 game will go into overtime this weekend.

27%, that the Texas All-Stars and Waterbuffaloes will score a combined 65 points in their second encounter this weekend.