Semi-Finals Preview: Davids Take on Goliaths

Hi there. Welcome to the inaugural FPF Co-Ed Division playoffs. I hope you enjoy your stay. The matchups are set, the dates and times confirmed. All that’s left now is for the teams to go out and play (rhyme not intended).

One particularity of the Co-Ed Division is the fact that, with just five teams in total (thanks for playing, Flamboyant Dragons), and four playoff teams (congratulations, Confirmed Positive, Served With Girls, It’s a Match and Party Mix), everybody is already pretty familiar with one another, having each played each other twice. This weekend, a third matchup is coming.

One would expect (or hope) that level of familiarity to result in closer, more competitive games this postseason. The surprises should be far and few between – you know what they’re going to throw at you, you know what you’re going to throw at them. So what’s left to do? Execute. That’s what’ll be the difference. At least, I think so. You can never be too sure of anything come playoff time…

 

Recaps

Comeback: Completed

Party Mix lost their season finale to Served With Girls, but they won my heart. Heading into this game, I was hopeful for a competitive game at best, a blowout at worst. As it turns out, I was in for a treat.   

Party Mix QB Frank Deslauriers looked calm, cool and collected marching his team down the field with a mix of short, easy plays, culminating the game’s opening drive with a perfect pass to receiver Camille Fortier-Martineau over the middle of the end zone.  

And that was just the start. On Party Mix’s 2nd drive of the game, Deslauriers went straight for the big play, finding Jonathan Goulet on a 40-bomb down the sideline.

But it wasn’t all perfect for Party Mix. Some ugly penalties and poor tackling allowed Served With Girls to make their way into the red zone at lightning speed on back-to-back drives, leading to a 20-14 Party Mix lead at the half.

Things were still looking up for Party Mix coming out of the break, as on the first play of the second half Karl Lavallée took a big sack following a bad snap.

But then the clock struck JD Chevalier o’clock. On the very next play, the gifted receiver bailed out Lavallée’s  insanely high sideline pass by making an insanely high jump to bring it down, then sped past three would-be tacklers on his way to the end zone. A Pick 6 by Anthony Beauchamp-Frezza on the very next play saw a 20-14 Party Mix lead become a 27-20 deficit – one PM would be unable to recover from as they fall 33-26.

A tough loss, no doubt. But proof Party Mix can indeed hang with the division’s best.

 

Comeback: Failed

While SWG were busy mounting their second half comeback, Flamboyant Dragons were attempting to do the same in their battle with It’s a Match. Theirs didn’t finish as hoped, however.

A big part of that was just how big a hole the Dragons found themselves in at the half. Indeed, a lone Guillaume Fontaine score aside, the first half was all It’s a Match last Saturday, as QB François Éthier had little difficulty moving the ball against a Dragons defense that has struggled most of the season. A mix of runs and long bombs saw Match take a 22-6 lead over FB at the half.

But FB kept on battling. One touchdown after another, FB slowly but surely clawed their way back as QB Guillaume Fontaine kept his best for last, having finished the night with his highest single game QBR of the season (112.5) and his only game without having thrown an interception (4:0 TD-INT ratio).

Coupled with some key stops, Dragons were able to get within four points of a completed comeback for their first and only win of the season. But unfortunately for them the FPF gods had other plans in mind, as the Dragons fall 34-30 and unfortunately finish the season with a zero in the win column.

 

Previews

Served With Girls vs. It’s a Match

Previous matchups: Served With Girls 30, It’s a Match 14; Served With Girls 37, It’s a Match 18

Judging solely by their respective season finales, there may not be a more ideal time than now for It’s a Match to finally get a W versus Served With Girls. While SWG finished the season with a W of their own, it was far from an impressive one given the many defensive holes Deslauriers exploited and SWG’s struggles to move the ball on a night Lavallée’s long ball was off-target. Meanwhile, It’s a Match are coming off their highest-scoring output in a single game all season long with 34 points versus FB’s defense, and they did so without the help of veteran FPF receiver Alexis Labonté.

But even despite all of that, I simply can’t bring myself to predict anything but a SWG win here.

Yes, It’s a Match put up 34 points this past week… but the FB defense can’t really be compared to a group as big, fast and physical as SWG’s. Yes, Party Mix had its way with the SWG defense in the first half of this past week’s game… the key word being first half. The bigger key word is actually a number: 16, which is the average number of points It’s a Match have scored on SWG in their two regular season matchups. That’s not exactly a winning number when you’re going up against a high-octane offense like SWG’s.

Assuming both teams head into this one at full strength, It’s a Match’s best shot at an upset is going defense first, properly defending Karl Lavallée’s opening drive 40-bomb/hoping he misses the pass completely, then controlling the clock to score right before the half and then again to start the second half. Even then, it would be one heck of an uphill battle for Match. 

Prediction: Served With Girls 32, It’s a Match 19

 

Confirmed Positive vs. Party Mix

Previous matchups: Confirmed Positive 32, Party Mix 13; Confirmed Positive 44, Party Mix 12

I’m saying it right now: I’m expecting no more than a two-score game. Am I giving Party Mix too much credit entering this game? Am I not giving Confirmed Positive enough? Probably to both. But I’m a pretty stubborn guy, so here’s how I’ll justify that position:

First, a look at Party Mix. Frank Deslaurier’s improvement as a QB? Impressive. Very impressive. Deslauriers’ average QBR per game over the first half of the season was 77.43. Over the second half of the season? 98.4. the rookie QB’s numbers improved across the board, and it’s an improvement that showed very clearly on the field, with Frank having modified his play-calling to better suit both himself and his receiving corps. 

On the other side, you really can’t say anything negative about Confirmed Positive (I’ll give myself a B+ for that juxtaposition). This team is about as complete as it gets in FPF. Even still, they’re not invincible – that 1 in the loss column is proof of that. And it all starts with a good rush. Party Mix have three players each with two sacks: Deslauriers, Jonathan Goulet, and Yousef Ghellache. Whoever they decide to have rush QB Vanessa Birri will have to have one hell of a game if Party Mix hopes to win this one. I think they’re up to the task.  

And all of that is not to mention the fact that Party Mix were missing some key players – including top receivers Camille Fortier-Martineau and Audrey Le Templier – in their last battle with CP, while a lack of players in general cost them six points to start the game.

Simply put, I have faith that a full-strength, March Party Mix will put up a much better fight than it did in its first two outings versus the heavily favored CP. To go from that to predicting an outright Party Mix win is a bit too much of a stretch for me, but you can never say never when it comes to the FPF playoffs.

Prediction: Confirmed Positive 36, Party Mix 27   

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That wraps up Week 11 of the Co-Ed Division. Questions, comments, criticism? Let me know on Facebook or on Twitter @JBlanchFPF. See you at the fields!