Predicting the playoffs with the current standings part 2: wild card, quarters, semis and finals

Here we go! I’m back with part 2 of my playoff prediction if the playoffs were to start today. In part 1, I went over the play-in and the matchups between the top 4 seeds in the wild card round. So far, I have predicted no upsets but that is going to change today. Div E has a lot of parity this season and seeds 1 through 12 all have a chance to win the championship if things all click together. All top 12 seeds have a competent quarterback, and some star players on offense. Depth and defense are going to be the deciding factors in these games, and so I will highlight one X-factor player for each top 12 team. An X-Factor player is one who wasn’t the main option on offense in the regular season but whose ability to provide secondary scoring and/or make key defensive plays could bring his team to another level if he steps up in the playoffs.

Now on to the matchups for the wild card round for seeds 5 through 12.

Cover 3 Inches Long (5) vs. Trailer Park Boys (12)

Cover 3 Inches Long are 5-2 and their 2 losses have been humiliating. They got shut down by Pasta Arrabiat in Week 4 and Fabrice Tremblay threw 4 of his 9 total interceptions in that game. In week 7, Tremblay was only able to find the endzone twice against the average Bend Don’t Break. Their other 5 games have been wins, but the scores are a bit underwhelming. Their only really impressive win was against Primetime, but that was week 3 and Matthew Cadogan hadn’t yet found his groove. Fabrice Tremblay has had a strong season, with 29TDs and only 9INTs thrown. William Seguin and Vincent Demers have been matching each other all season at receiver, with both 7TDs and almost 290 yards, but Demers was not there week 7 in the loss against Bend Don’t Break. Nathan Lequin, C3IL’s X-factor stepped up and scored 2TDs and added 73 yards. He hadn’t done much at all on offense the rest of the season but showed why he probably needs a bigger role. He also has 9 sacks and 4PDs on defense. As for Trailer Park Boys, they are 4-4-1, but two of those losses were forfeits. Antoine Meunier has been great at QB, with a 98.7 QB rating, 27TDs and only 7INTs. He has also added 179 yards rushing. Alexandre Meunier has been the main offensive weapon, with 583 total scrimmage yards and 12 total TDs. The X-Factor for Trailer Park Boys is snapper Mathieu Gascon who has been an end zone threat all season (12TDs) and also leads the team in interceptions (3). In this hypothetical matchup, rusher Nathan Lequin would have to find a way to contain Trailer Park Boys’ rushing offense, and C3IL’s defense would need to find a way to slow down Mathieu Gascon in the endzone. Trailer Park Boys would also have to find a way to cover both William Seguin and Vincent Demers. I think Trailer Park Boys’ offense is too dynamic and unpredictable for Cover 3 Inches Long to handle. Fabrice Tremblay won’t necessarily have trouble moving the chains, but finding the endzone will be tough. Mathieu Gascon near the goal line will be too much to handle for C3IL and Trailer Park Boys surprisingly come out with the win.

Score prediction: 37-31 for Trailer Park Boys

Not You Too? (6) vs. WHO D’EH (11)

I’m not entirely sure, but I think Kaiden Dewey-Hull might not be playing another game for Not You Too?. 26 players have played at least one game for NYT, but only 5 of them are currently eligible to suit up for the playoffs. 4 other players are sitting at 4 games played and can’t miss the final game if they want to qualify. 6 different players have thrown for at least 160 yards and I’m not even sure they have an actual dedicated QB come playoff time. Kaiden Dewey-Hull is their best option, but he has missed the last 4 games and won’t be eligible for the playoffs if he misses the next one. Out of the currently eligible players, the best QB has been William Leclerc, but he is their best receiving option and has only thrown sporadically in games, and never as an actual QB. It seems Edward Leclerc is the only remaining option without Dewey-Hull, and it’s not particularly encouraging. Edward is this team’s X-factor because we simply haven’t seen enough of him at QB, and he is also their best eligible coverage defender. It’s a completely different story for WHO D’EH who have had Tom Gatehouse throwing every single pass, mainly to the same 3 receivers (Tanner Keating, Bryden Streeter and Deven Gonzalez). Their X-factor is none of those 4 players, it is actually Tyler Keating. He has been kind of forgotten on offense after a solid start to the season, but he’s a guy who’s able to have a 50 yard, 2TD performance in a game. On defense, he has an impressive 8 passes defended and an interception. If those two teams were to face up right now, and Edward Leclerc was throwing, I think WHO D’EH win fairly easily. He simply hasn’t thrown enough and WHO D’EH have been consistently solid all season.

Score prediction: 27-12 WHO D’EH

Show Me Dem TDies (7) vs. Pasta Arrabiat (10)

Oh I love this matchup! Show Me Dem TDies have the best defense in the division (21 interceptions), but an only average offense. Daniel Caruana has been alright, throwing 22TDs but a disappointing 13 INTs in only 7 games. All 5 starters on offense have at least 147 yards, and 2 TDs. Denis Koutavas has 10TD receptions, but Louis Gaitanis leads the team with 274 yards. The X-factor for this team is definitely Peter Abbandonato with 6 interceptions in only 5 games as well as 167 yards and 3TDs on offense. He is very athletic, but not a natural football player. As for Pasta Arrabiat, Joe Morgese has been the clear cut best player in the division. He is scoring an average of 3TDs per game (6 games, forfeit win against Trailer Park Boys), and he has 439 yards. Nic Delisi has been phenomenal, with a 106.1 QB rating, which is the best rating in the division. He protects the ball very well, only 5INTs and he also has an okay 21 TDs thrown. Unfortunately for Pasta Arrabiat, it seems that Morgese is the only successful offensive weapon, and at some point you need more than one great player in flag, as good as that guy is. Their X-factor is Riccardo Oliva, who has 6 interceptions and 3 PDs. Daniel Caruana throws a lot of picks and Pasta Arrabiat’s defense is going to need to be able to capitalize on those mistakes or else they’ll struggle against Show Me Dem TDies. I recommend any team playing against Pasta Arrabiat to focus their entire defense on containing Joe Morgese and letting the others beat them. Morgese is a matchup nightmare for many teams, due to his size and speed, but Show Me Dem TDies have the physicality to match him up. If Daniel Caruana is able to limit the turnovers and Show Me Dem TDies bring everything they have to slow down Morgese, they can win. I think Show Me Dem TDies is a terrible matchup for Pasta Arrabiat, and their defense is going to be good enough to shut down Morgese. Thankfully, even if this matchup doesn’t happen in the playoffs, it will happen in Week 10, and I think we’ll see a Show Me Dem TDies win.

Score prediction: 27-20 Show Me Dem TDies

Primetime (8) vs. Ramphins (9)

Primetime are 5-1 when Matthew Cadogan plays. Their loss to Cover 3 Inches Long in Week 3 was bad, but ever since then, Cadogan has been clinical. He has thrown 5TDs in all of his last three games. Alessio Muro has been the main guy on offense, with 317 yards and 10TDs. On defense, 8 players have at least 1 interception, but their best defender is their rusher, Massimo Rosati, who has 13 sacks and 3 PDs in only 6 games. He is no slouch on offense either, with 4TDs. He is Primetime’s X-factor. Now on to Ramphins, they are currently on a 4 game win streak after starting off the season 1-4. Despite their record early on, I knew this team was good because of the way they lost. They would lose games by one possession and simply struggled to finish games, but something has changed in their last 4 games. They have beaten OnlyFlags, Area 69, Pasta Arrabiat and Trailer Park Boys, which are 4 decent to very good teams. Sheldon Dumeignil is very hot and cold, but when he’s hot, like he was against Trailer Park Boys, this team can truly beat anybody. Chad and Jesse Dumeignil have been the main offensive and defensive threats for Ramphins. Jesse has 10 interceptions and 12 receiving TDs. Chad has almost 400 yards, as well as 3 interceptions, 9 sacks and 4 PDs. Let’s just say this team is really being driven by the three Dumeignils. The team needs someone else to step up, and that player has to be Billy Guay, who has 3 interceptions and 5TDs on the season. Both of these teams are contenders in my opinion, considering how their past few games have gone, but I think Matthew Cadogan is more consistent than Sheldon Dumeignil. Cadogan doesn’t get sacked which will negate Chad Dumeignil’s impact as rusher. Primetime’s zone defense is also elite, and they have no particularly weak defenders at any given time. As a team, they have 15 interceptions and a ridiculous 27 PDs, which should be enough to contain the Dumeignils on offense.

Score prediction : 33-28 for Primetime

This sets up our 4 matchups for the quarterfinals.

Hail Marty’s (1) vs. Trailer Park Boys (12)

Two exciting offenses.

Hail Marty’s have the best offense in the division, with the most successful QB-WR connection between Marty Freedman and Brandon Vickers. Trailer Park Boys also have a similar connection between Alexandre and Antoine Meunier which thrives both in the air and on the feet. Is Hail Marty’s rushing defense good enough to contain Antoine and Alexandre? I’m not sure. The team has 10 sacks, but they don’t have one dominant rusher and seem to alternate between Freedman and Trevor Wolf. Hail Marty’s X-factor will be Andrew Arsenault who has flown under the radar this season. His 4 interceptions, 2 sacks and 4 PDs on defense are impressive, and he has 5TDs on offense. If he’s able to string together a couple of good games in a row in the playoffs, on both sides of the ball, Hail Marty’s will be very hard to defeat. Trailer Park Boys’ defense won’t be enough to contain Freedman, Vickers, Noel, Perez and Arseneault, and while TPB would score in this game, they will struggle to get even one stop on defense.

Score prediction: 43-31 Hail Marty’s

FSU (2) vs. WHO D’EH (11)

New School vs. Old School

Here we have FSU who always seem to find ways to win games, led by Justin Schwartz who scores with his arm and his feet. FSU are young and fast. In their only loss, they were without Schwartz and the team looked completely different. Alejandro Fonte is the best receiver for this team, but his stats aren’t anything too crazy. FSU don’t have the best offense or the best defense in the division, but they are very good on both sides of the ball and don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Their X-factor is Cory Dankner, who has 4 interceptions, 3 sacks and 4 PDs, 138 yards and 2TDs. He embodies what this team is all about, which is being good at everything, but not necessarily great at anything either. WHO D’EH on the other end, play a very traditional game. They don’t do double passes, Tom Gatehouse spreads the ball and very rarely runs. It is a one-dimensional offense with 3 main targets. It is also a one-dimensional defense as in they’ll mostly play zone and close out to get many passes defended. They aren’t a very athletic team, but they have a great system. I think FSU’s versatility meets a great match with WHO D’EH’s basic way of playing the game. The difference maker in this game would be FSU’s rushing offense which will cause problems to WHO D’EH’s defense as Justin Schwartz will get past the rusher and make plays scrambling or running.

Score prediction: 29-24 FSU

Meat Lovers (3) vs. Primetime (8)

Aggresive vs. Clinical

Meat Lovers are an aggressive team on offense and defense. Manny Bizogias won’t hesitate to throw the deep ball, and he doesn’t need a lot of plays to score, which is very valuable when the game is on the line. Although, that also means he throws his fair share of interceptions, and having more than 2 in a single game will surely backfire. Defensively, they get a lot interceptions and PDs, but they can also get burned deep. Manny Bizogias won’t hesitate to run if his receivers are being covered, and so a great contain rusher is essential when facing Meat Lovers. Thankfully for Primetime, Massimo Rosati is an elite rusher. At QB, Matthew Cadogan is clinical and finds empty zones for his receivers. Meat Lovers’ aggressiveness won’t be as affective against Primetime, as Cadogan’s patience will allow his receivers to make plays. Defensively, Primetime shouldn’t struggle to put their hands on the balls thrown by Bizogias, but the issue is whether they’ll be able to pick him off. I think they would. Meat Lovers don’t have enough depth, and despite stars Kevin Scalia and Dante Gonsalves, Bizogias is going to feel the pressure and make mistakes.

Score prediction: 32-26 for Primetime

Minchia FT (4) vs. Show Me Dem TDies (7)

Two elite defensive teams

When we have a defensive battle, I have to look at which team performed better against good defenses. In this case, neither team has excelled scoring against good defenses, but Minchia FT have done more. They recently put up 26 points against Meat Lovers and 27 points against WHO D’EH. Adam Antel has thrown for over 1000 yards and has 30TD passes. Daniel Caruana has only thrown 22TDs. Minchia FT’s defense is not that far off from Show Me Dem TDies’, and Antel is the better quarterback. There isn’t really one player on Show Me Dem TDies who is a tough matchup for Minchia FT. I think Justin Neemeh would have a big game and pose some problems for TDies. Matthew Janiszewski is the X-factor for Minchia. His defensive presence and ability to break up plays is elite and will pose problems for Caruana. While I think both teams would struggle offensively, Minchia FT would find more ways to score, especially on converts.

Score prediction: 22-13 Minchia FT

On to the semis, we get:

Hail Marty’s (1) vs. Primetime (8)

Marty Freedman vs. Matthew Cadogan

This matchup has the two best QBs in the division going up against each other. Two smart and tactical QBs means that defense is going to be the difference maker. Hail Marty’s and Primetime both have great offenses, but Primetime’s defense gets the edge. If Primetime are able to match both Brandon Vickers and Jonathan Perez, Freedman will have to look elsewhere to score, and I’m not sure how much he trusts his other receivers. I predict a surprise upset, and Primetime take the win in this high offense game. Matthew Cadogan will score at will, and Marty Freedman will thrown one or two interceptions that shouldn’t have been thrown.

Score prediction : 40-31 Primetime

FSU (2) vs. Minchia FT (4)

Two very deep rosters

Both these teams are solid across the board: QB, Receivers, DBs, Rusher. They both have depth and athleticism. The offenses aren’t out of this world though, and two solid defenses leaves me with the question, which QB is better? On one hand Justin Schwartz doesn’t throw many picks, but doesn’t score a ton throwing. He is elite at running and hard to contain for rushers. Anthony Mirarchi is a good rusher but not the best. Schwartz should get some nice yardage running, but he’s gonna struggle finding the endzone with his arm against Minchia FT’s defense. On the other side, Adam Antel throws TDs, and he throws it to anyone who’s open. That will be the difference in this game, as MFT’s depth is simply better than FSU’s after the top 3 guys. Anyone can make a play on MFT, I’m not so sure it’s the case for FSU.

Score prediction: 30-20 Minchia FT

And finally, the finals.

Minchia FT (4) vs. Primetime (8)

At QB, I’m taking Matthew Cadogan over Adam Antel. Cadogan picked apart Minchia FT’s defense in their week 5 matchup. Antel threw 3 picks when these teams played, and he’ll need to be way more efficient for MFT to win.

At receiver, I’m taking Minchia FT. Alessio Muro and Justin Neemeh are similar, but as I previously said, all receivers on Minchia FT are good and can make plays on offense. While Primetime have a lot of depth on offense, Minchia FT have a full roster of capable receivers. Matthew Neiss is also a better 2nd option than anyone on Primetime.

Defense: Primetime. It’s always a pass defended galore when you play these teams, which makes it very tough for QBs to throw, as they have to be more patient. Primetime pick off the opposing QB more often and get a lot of PDs as well.

Rusher: Massimo Rosati is the best rusher in the division other than maybe Raff Morelli.

Overall, I think Primetime are a more complete team, and have the best QB.

Score prediction: 28-27 Primetime

I predict Primetime to win the whole thing, with Matthew Cadogan winning Finals MVP.

This is it for this week’s articles, had a lot of fun writing them.

You’ll hear back from me next week with my awards selections.