Playing for Keeps: Long live the favorites
25-03-2019 12:00 AM
The anticipation of the stretch run is over and the playoffs have finally arrived. With a week off in div 1 and byes in div 2, there’s only a handful of games on the docket this round. Hoping we see some desperation in the underdogs, as they’ll have a tall task ahead of them with the mighty favorites in division 2.
Good luck to all. May the best teams move on to the next stage.
Division 2 Playoff Breakdown Opening Round
Clockmakers (4th) vs King’s Landing (5th)
Previous Encounter: 27-20 Clockmakers Week 1
How we got here
Clockmakers
Off: 268 (11/14) Def: 320 (10/14)
They were highly touted heading into the season, projected as the 2nd best team in our preseason rankings. After squeezing out a victory over their future round 1 opponent, the offense started showing some concerning trends throughout the opening weeks. Their inability to stretch the field effectively could be attributed to a lack of top speed, but compounding the issue has been the regressed throwing power of QB Ryan Kastner. They showed some signs of breaking through in weeks 3 and 4, pumping in 43 points a game over that spurt. But it turned out to be a flash in the pan, as STL’s fierce defense laid into them in week 5, setting off a prolonged depression. Unable to generate any consistent offense against the top defenses in conference A, they settled into a general offensive funk that had them trending towards a major bust. A mini resurgence in the final two weeks of the season got them back to a respectable record, but it would be a stretch to say that the offense is coming into the playoffs hot, as they averaged just 28 points against the two worst teams in the division.
King’s landing
Off: 303 (8/14) Def: 288 (5/14)
They came into the season with a patchwork roster, just trying to field a team in time for registration. It didn’t help that they walked into a buzz saw their opening 4 games, facing some of the toughest opponents in the division. An 0-4 start had them realizing the very real threat of missing playoffs, and they made some necessary mid-season acquisitions to help bolster their lineup. Embarking on a 4 game winning streak to get back to .500, they looked like the hottest team in the division entering the home stretch. However, their win streak needs to be treated with a massive grain of salt, as it was against some of the weakest opponents in the division. They failed their final test of the season, losing the final 2 games decidedly against a pair of tough opponents. In the end, they beat everyone they were supposed to beat, and lost to every tough draw on their schedule.
What to expect
Both teams have been underwhelming so far this season, which may mean that both teams still have their best football ahead of them. Expect the Clockmakers to try to win this game with a tough, aggressive defense, since they might be lacking confidence in their offense. On the flip side, a strong King’s Landing offense will be key to victory, as their 5th ranked defense is a lot softer on the field than their ranking shows. Between the two teams, it feels like there might be a bigger rift on the Clockmakers, as they’ve looked frustrated and disappointed in each other’s play at times this year. King’s Landing is a band of brothers, even if the band has been shaky in key matchups this season. For this reason, expect King’s Landing to have the grit to dig down and make the big stop down the stretch in this otherwise tight game. Despite the season both teams have had to date, this can easily be a launching point for either team to make a deep playoff run.
Prediction: 38-32 King’s Landing
Khantroversy (3rd) vs Nighthawks (6th)
Previous Encounter: 39-25 Khantroversy Week 6
How we got here
Khantroversy
Off: 339 (6/14) Def: 296 (7/14)
They came into the season as one of the favorites in a tight conference B, with their QB and star player having lost in the semi-finals last winter in heartbreaking fashion. Considering this was an almost totally new roster, lacking chemistry and with some holes on defense, we might have set expectations too high for them at the outset. Still, high expectations is the regular with Dan Lazzara at QB. He had another excellent season at pivot, weaving his inconsistent roster into a formidable offense, showing glimpses of fireworks at times. A 5-5 record is testament to the strength of conference B, coupled with a roster often missing key players. A late season injury to Rod Mashtoub is the most concerning element to their playoff hopes, as they’ll be thin defensively without him. After a trio of losses to the elite teams down the stretch, they rebounded with a convincing win against King’s Landing in the final week of the season. The question now becomes what exactly is this team’s ceiling in winter 2019?
Nighthawks
Off: 310 (7/14) Def: 419 (14/14)
The dominant profile of this team has been the lower caliber roster surrounding one of the most accomplished QBs in the history of FPF. For all intents and purposes, the season has played out almost exactly to script for them. They remain in games early on thanks to Rick Nincheri’s ability to dissect and carve up opposing defenses. He’s certainly elevated this roster at times this season, keeping them competitive in games they had no business being in. Their mid season acquisitions of Rob Robinson and Justin Cerantola have helped enormously, giving this team a lot more punch on both sides of the ball. Proof is in the pudding, as they played #NR all the way down to the wire, before upsetting STL enormously in week 10. The defense still remains a sieve, yielding a whopping 419 points and ranking dead last in the division.
What to expect
Even if Rod Mashotub is on the shelf this week (which hasn’t been confirmed), Nighthawks will need to remain on their offense and a prayer to go 12 rounds with Khantroversy tonight. Similar to their first encounter, expect Nighthawks to hang around early. Dan should have no trouble shredding through the Nighthawks with AJ and Sam Mashtoub. The X-factor in this game may be Hainsley Adams. Last time they played he had a great read on Dan from the rush, but failed to finish the sack on a few huge occasions. With a defense that has trouble keeping the ball out of the end zone, they’ll need to rely on their rusher to push Dan back into so high pressure situations. There’s a sliver of a hope for Nighthawks to pull off the inconceivable, but that heavy odds remain with Khantorversy to advance to round 2.
Prediction: 45-32 Khantroversy
Terror Squad (3rd) vs Prospect Squad (6th)
Previous Encounter: 35-25 Terror Squad week 6
How we got here
Terror Squad
Off: 342 (5/14) Def: 252 (2/14)
They weren’t given much respect to begin the season, returning to division 2 with a roster composed of accomplished tackle football players with little FPF experience. Their 1-3 record to start the year accurately showed their growing pains, as they struggled mightily to score points on offense early on. Finally they started to show some signs of life at the tail end of their losing streak. Pat Jerome made his first appearance on offense for this team, which coincided with Serge Pilon Jr. finally getting fed the ball at the level you’d expect. Once they began looking like the Terror Squad of years past, they began rolling over the competition. The new guys, Chevrier, Tanguay and Roy developped into strong role players on what ended up being the second stingiest defense in the division. A four game winning streak was snapped only by the undefeated YCSWU, but they quickly rebounded with a trashing of SYO in week 11. Jasmin Rioux deserves a lot of credit for putting these talented pieces in the right spots. He keeps his play calls fresh, thus making the game unpredictable for the opposing QBs. Terror Squad have major dark horse appeal in conference A, with very likely the most talented duo of players in the division.
Prospect Squad
Off: 248 (12/14) Def: 312 (9/14)
They were going nowhere fast to start the year, tumbling to a 1-2 record out of the gate after struggling through their inaugural season in division B last spring. Their defense was energetic and aggressive, but disorganized. Their offense lacked fire power. Following the #NR game, which they should have absolutely won just based on the play of their defense, they went out and attempted to solve their offensive woes by handing the ball over to flamethrower Mario Porreca. This ended up being a rewarding move, as their offense went from averaging 19 PPG to 27 PPG following the switch. The highlight of their season was the 2 game win streak in weeks 7 and 8 over the Nighthawks and Killa Bees. But their expectations were quickly tempered, as they weren’t even in the same ballpark against King’s Landing and Braves 2.0 to end the year. I truly believe that in a division with a proper playoff structure Prospects Squad would not be a playoff team this year. That’s not to say that it hasn’t been a successful season for them. We’re slowly witnessing the development of a promising young team in FPF’s higher divisions, just not this year in division 2.
What to expect
Mario Porreca has a puncher’s chance anytime he takes the field. With an athletic receiving cast you can expect him to come into this game throwing haymakers. There’s always something to be worried about when playing a team that has nothing to lose. Still, Tam Vilaydeth’s connection to Pilon is just too strong. All it takes is a 5 yard slant to Pilon to allow him to gain enough speed to turn up field and shake everyone before him. Also, Prospect Squad is not a great tackling defense, and Serge is single handily the toughest guy to tackle. Let’s not forget about Jerome posting over the top. I can’t see Prospect Squad playing a perfect game offensively, which they will need to keep up with Terror Squad.
Prediction: 40-26 Terror Squad
Bad Boys (4th) vs Alkaholiks (5th)
Previous Encounter: 50-35 Bad Boys week 10
How we got here
Bad Boys
Off: 294 (10/14) Def: 293 (6/14)
They entered the season with some hype, coming off a division B finals appearance, and boosting their lineup strength significantly for the winter. However, starting the season at 2-2, with an anemic offense averaging just 18.5 PPG had them looking dangerously like a bust candidate in the early stages. Pat Chenard departed for a 2 week vacation to clear his mind, and when he came back he was gifted the healthy return of his best receiving threat in Nicolas Arsenault-Hum. Since then, the switch was flipped on and Bad Boys became one of the toughest teams on both sides of the ball. Their offense jumped all the way up to 36.67 PPG from weeks 5-10, highlighted by an upset over the powerhouse Braves 2.0 in week 6. Now, they’ll look forward to a rematch with the conference favorites in round 2. But first they’ll need to take care of the pesky veterans.
Alkaholiks
Off: 295 (9/14) Def: 379 (13/14)
Give this team major props for competing in division 2, as they were just a group of friends looking to ball together with their captain who happens to be too strong to throw in a more suitable division for their team. They’ve made some interesting roster moves throughout the season, but none of them have stuck too successfully to date. Still, there’s a version of this roster that could be quite dangerous in a one-and-done situation. If they can get Perry, Stinson and bailey out to the field on Monday night, Bad Boys could have a game on their hands. Paul is still running division 1 plays and making great reads at QB, he just hasn’t had the right dogs in the race for the most part this year. Hopefully for them that changes tonight.
What to expect
Alkaholiks will need to establish their defense early if they hope to have a chance in this game. Throwing Pat Chenard off his game will be their best bet, because if he gets too comfortable with this lineup of receivers then forget it. Paul Lapierre will need to be laser sharp. The Bad Boys will get up on the line of scrimmage and jam up the already slow Alkaholiks receivers. Expect Paul to run some intermediate crossing patterns to try and create space. In the end however, we should expect a similar outcome to the first encounter. Bad Boys will turn on the playoff gear in anticipation for a big rematch next week, while Alkaholiks will try to stick around as long as they can.
Prediction: 39-28 Bad Boys
That’s it for this week. The 2019 winter division 2 playoffs starts up in a few short hours. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can hit me up on Facebook. If you’re craving more content please check out the Calling the Audible podcast featuring Moe Khan, Peeze and Simon, it’s a healthy dose of absurdity to get you through the week. Thanks for taking the time to read this, and make sure to check back next week to find out how the first week of playoff action shook out!