Playing for Keeps: Half past the point of no return

With week 10 already well underway, I’ll keep the formalities to a minimum and dive right into the story lines that matter.

This week we officially begin our winter 2019 Playoff watch. At this time of year all teams are clamoring to wrap up the loose ends from the regular season, while fine-tuning their play for the second season ahead.

Next week we’ll take a deeper look at the individual award leaders, but this week the focus is teams on the playoff bubble.

Around the Division

One interesting development in division 2 has been the rebalancing of conference strength versus our preseason projections. Calling conference B the “group of death” turned out to be a bust, as 4 of the top 6 ranked teams currently hail from conference A. Of the original “fearful 5” in conference B, Clockmakers are looking dangerously more like a bust each week, while Khantorversy have been disappointing over the past month to say the least. King’s Landing have ramped up recently, but even they lack a win of substance on their record. While on the other side, Terror Squad and Bad Boys have looked like legitimate contenders as of late, promising an entertaining second round challenge versus conference favorites #NR and Braves 2.0.

Speaking of Khantroversy, each week is starting to look more troubling for this preseason favorite. They’ve been in each game they’ve lost recently, but they’re missing the switch that good teams and players turn on when it becomes “winning time.” Fresh off a loss against the surging Terror Squad, they’ll look to rebound in a tough matchup against King’s Landing to close the year.
Since we mentioned Terror Squad, winners of 4 straight, does the idea of a Div 2 roster featuring Serge Pilon Jr. and Pat Jerome worry anyone else with championship aspirations? These guys are filthy, and the development of Alexandre Chevrier as a bona fide third star has solidified them as a true contender in conference A. They didn’t start the season well, but they’re sure tearing through towards the finish.
Flag Moi L’Sac trounced Monstars 47-29 this week in an otherwise nondescript game. The problem is that Rod Mashtoub was absent with a fairly serious back injury. Having been viciously tackled by a rusher last week, he will be out minimum two games while hoping for swelling to go down before playoffs. Faced with a prolonged absence of their best player, so close to playoffs also, the Monstars will really need to reach deep and work together to get through this rough patch. They’re winless so far this year with Rod out of the lineup, and 4-1 when he’s there. Further evidence that he truly is one of the most valuable players in the league.
Division 2 has the least exciting playoff structure in all of FPF. With only 1 team eliminated in each conference, playoff spots have all been locked up already. Even though all playoff bound teams don’t necessarily deserve to be there, they’ll have a second chance to turn their season around when the games matter most.

Div 1 Playoff scenarios and Key Games

We’ll take a look at some of the significant games with playoff implications to come in division 1.

(8) Waste Yout (2-5) vs (5) Monstars (4-5) – Week 10

Waste Yout have 2 games in hand versus the three teams currently at 4-5 occupying the finals 3 playoff spots in division 1. However, as losers of 5 straight games (!!!) they haven’t taken advantage of their favorable scheduling position. Now they’ve begun to put themselves in hot water, as they’ll need to win a minimum of 2 of their remaining 3 games just to have a shot at securing the final playoff spot.

The 3 teams sitting in 6th-8th (D-Boys, Monstars and Finest) all have 9 games played. The D-Boys, fresh off a two game winning streak, encounter a Got-Fat team on life support next week, in what should be a convincing win for a historically dominant team looking to make a late season run on the division (although nothing is certain at this point with the way Div 1 has played out this year).

Of the bunch, the most vulnerable team is without a doubt the Monstars. With Rod Masthoub on the shelf, this team is significantly downgraded on both sides of the ball. There’s just no QB in the league to date besides Rod who fits in with the style and character of this team. The odds are heavily in Waste Yout’s favor for their Monday night tilt at Ville St-Laurent, and if this team is worth their salt in division 1 they’ll find a way to secure the all important victory. But their work won’t be done there. With the Finest next week before a final game against Got-Fat, they’ll need to win at least 1 of the final 2 games to have a shot. Should Waste Yout beat Monstars and both finish the season at 4-6 tied for the sixth seed, Monstars would have a slight edge as of today due to points allowed per game, but that could change over the course of the next few games.

(8) Waste Yout (2-5) vs (6) MTL Finest (4-5) – Week 11

One interesting scenario would possibly occur should Monstars find a way to defeat Waste Yout tonight. A Monstars win tonight – coupled with a D-Boys win over Got-Fat next week – would create a scenario in which Waste Yout would play the Finest for the final playoff spot next week. Should Waste Yout complete the improbable and win that game, then they would just need to win their week 12 matchup vs Got-Fat and they could knock the Finest out of the playoffs. That’s right, for all those thinking the most unlikely scenario in FPF would never occure, there is a real possibility of a winter 2019 playoffs without the greatest team ever.

(7) Got-Fat (2-6) vs (4) D-Boys (4-5) – Week 11

We’ve dismissed them to date, since they’re losers of 3 straight games and seem to be trending downwards, but one team that can complicate the entire playoff picture even further is Got-Fat. Imagine if they find a way to win their final two games against D-Boys and Waste Yout. Here’s what may happen:

If Monstars lose this week to Waste Yout and Waste Yout lose next week to Finest, it would create a three way tie at 4-6 between D-Boys, Monstars and Got-Fat. In that scenario, D-Boys and Monstars would likely pass due to points allowed, since Got-Fat is yielding an enormous 40 points per game.

BUT, what if Monstars beat Waste Yout this week and Waste Yout manages to defeat Finest in week 11. In that case D-Boys, Finest, and Got-Fat would be 4-6. Here, the points allowed will be much more valuable in the remaining 2 games, since the Finest have only a narrow advantage over Got-Fat in PA. The team with the worst PA of that group would be eliminated.

(8) Waste Yout (2-5) vs (7) Got-Fat (2-6) – Week 12

This game may mean nothing at all, or it may have significant implications. First off Got-Fat need to beat D-Boys in week 11.

If Waste Yout beat both Monstars and Finest, should Got-Fat win this game there would be an incredible 5-way tie at 4-6. D-Boys, Monstars, Finest, Got-Fat and Waste Yout would all be clamoring to avoid the bottom 2. In such a circumstance, it would likely be Got-Fat and Finest on the outside looking in due to Points Allowed, but Waste Yout wouldn’t be too far ahead depending on how these games play out.

Conclusion

Does all of this give you a headache? I don’t blame you, you’re not alone. The Div 1 playoff picture this year is extremely messy right now, and we love it. There will be so much drama and high stakes football down the stretch that we’re bound to see the best and worst come out of our competitors. Right now, outside of the top 2 byes (which are settled), only DK can rest at night knowing they’ve at least secured a playoff spot.

The concept of the Finest missing the playoffs is without a doubt the most entertaining storyline down the stretch. As we’ve seen above, this possibility actually has some legs. There’s no doubt that the playoffs are more interesting with them in it, but seeing them battle for survival is a captivating twist to the plot.

Prediction

With nothing on the line, here’s how I see it going down:

D-Boys beat Got-Fat in week 11, securing themselves a playoff spot at 5-5 and eliminating Got-Fat from contention.

Waste Yout beat Monstars this week, but lose to Finest next week, setting up a crucial week 12 showdown versus Got-Fat. They win that game with their backs against the wall and finish 4-6.

Monstars finish 4-6 after losing to Waste Yout this week without their hero Rod Mashtoub.

Finest defeat Waste Yout next week and finish 5-5, securing themselves a playoff spot.

DK and FML will be a very close game, but should DK lose to them next week, all three of DK, D-Boys and Finest would be 5-5 in this scenario. D-Boys currently have a 5 point edge in points allowed over DK, so final rankings would be D-Boys 3rd, DK 4th and Finest 5th.

The final playoff spot will come down to a 4-6 tie between Waste Yout and Monstars. Since they traded victories over each other this year, it will come down to points allowed. Monstars are currently yielding 36.67 points per game while Waste Yout is giving up 37.4. However, with Mashtoub out Waste Yout will take the opportunity to make it rain on Monstars tonight. That, coupled with their defense tightening up the screws over final 2 weeks, will allow them to edge out Monstars by the tiniest of margins.

Despite all their struggles and drama this year, Waste Yout will hold on to the 6th and final playoff spot, and Monstars will be eliminated due to a huge second half collapse this year.

Recap

Braves conquer DK

This was a highly anticipated game between two heavyweights in division 1 with championship aspirations. DK were looking to put a statement win on their record and prove that they belonged at the lead table with Braves and Flag Moi L’Sac. As for Braves, it was a great tune-up game against a potential 2nd round playoff opponent.

DK started with the ball and were locked in early on. Despite a rare drop by Serge Pilon Jr. on a free post down the middle, they were able to convert a big fourth down with a clutch catch by Tam Vilaydeth. Rochdi cleaned up the drive with a 25 yards streak to Bond for the opening TD.

The Braves offense took the field looking to respond. Maheu opened up the scoring for his team with a 30 yard post to JD Chevalier, the first of what would be a huge night for the superstar receiver. With 8 catches for 97 yards and 4 TDs, his continued dominance as the 1-B receiver to Gariepy’s 1-A has provided the Braves with the best receiving duo in the division.

The Braves followed their first score by successfully converting their patent 2-point play. On a night where both teams scored 5 touchdowns, the Braves success on the 2-point convert proved to be the defining factor. Their success at the 2-point play gives them a unique edge heading into the playoffs, when games get tighter and often come down to converts.

DK would not relent, as Rochdi kept digging away at the Braves aggressive front with crosses to Serge Pilon, setting up the outside for Tam. Watching Serge manoeuver with the ball in his hands is a visceral mixture of balance, torque and speed, all blending into an incredible feat of athleticism. His ability to generate force while thrusting his hips forward mid-spin makes tackling him a dangerous trade off. Not only is it difficult to just reach his flag, but you also need to absorb the contact that he generates in the process. There’s nothing quite like it in all of FPF.

Apart from being a human projectile, Serge also further solidified his WROY award with another huge game of 119 yards and 3 TDs on 7 catches.

The Braves won this game on the exchange before and after halftime. With 5 plays left before the break they marched the field and set up the score to Chevalier with only 2 plays to go. Chevalier ran in the +2 to extend the lead to 22-19 heading into the half. Starting with the ball on the other side, the Braves marched and once again capped off the drive with a 5 yard drag to JD. Maheu hit Mike Pierrecin over the middle for 2 to extend the lead to 30-19.

DK would play catch up the rest of the way, always trailing by the difference in extra point converts.

In the end, the Braves added value was simply too much as they closed off a hard fought game 38-33. It was the type of game that DK will definitely store in the memory bank, and make the necessary adjustments when these two div 1 powerhouses meet once again in the playoffs.

King’s Landing subjugate Prospect Squad

Call me gullible but I actually had high hopes for this Sunday night spot at Hebert. Expecting a thriller between two red hot teams in division 2, I quickly had the steam let out of my sails after the first few drives.

Prospect Squad had trouble clicking on offense right from the onset. A very inconsistent first drive resulted in a turnover on downs just past midfield. Sean Avraam was all business, quickly responding with a deep post to Vendrame up the middle for the first score of the game. We’d be hearing a lot of Vendrame’s name called on this night.

Prospect Squad temporarily regrouped, as Mario Porreca found his grove and hit a streaking Alex Roberge from 14 yards out for the tie. But the magic wore off quickly after that.

Avraam kept feeding his top dog, working Vendrame on a crossing route past midfield. The stud slot receiver took the pass and turned up field, breaking several poor tackling attempts on his way to a second touchdown.

Still hot on the following defensive drive, Vendrame intercepted Porreca on an over-thrown ball over the middle. The Vendrame show continued until the final horn, as he put together 99 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns with 2 interceptions on defense. The man sure knows how to make an entrance.

Eddy Lee, who was battling a serious case of something nasty in his eyes, unable to open them more than a slant, used his veteran instincts to jump a slant route in the second half and pick off Porreca for the third time of the game.

It’s pretty easy to say that Porreca had his worst game since joining Prospect Squad. He was playing so well before this one that he was due for a bit of a letdown. He was just overthrowing everything, missing a few open receivers early on that could have resulted in key offensive plays. Even when his throws were on target, his receivers weren’t helping him out either with dropped passes.

The most disappointing part of watching Prospect Squad was the utter disorganization of their defense. They were all standing 7 yards back off the line of scrimmage, rampantly pacing and curelessly starring at each other right up to the moment of the snap. They’re an athletic and talented group, but they’ll need to get a lot more structured on the defensive side of the ball if they hope to make a ripple in the conference B playoffs.

As for King’s Landing, what can you really say. They’ve been one of the hottest teams over the past month. Since making some key mid season roster changes they’ve reeled off four straight wins, but all against lousy opponents. We don’t really know anything about this beefed up King’s Landing roster at this point, besides the fact that they beat who they’re supposed to beat. The true indication of their playoff readiness will be displayed over the next two weeks, as they finish their schedule with huge tilts against Khanroversy and #NR.

Power Rankings

In Div 1 the power rankings haven’t changed from last week. However, expect some key shifts to come next week.

FML 6-1-1 (/)
Braves 6-2-1 (/)
DK 4-4 (/)
Montréal’s Finest 4-4 (/)
Monstars 4-5 (+1)
D-Boys 3-5 (-1)
Got-Fat 2-5 (/)
Waste Yout 2-5 (/)

Braves 2.0 8-1 (/): They keep cruising along. They should clean up their schedule nicely this week against Prospect Squad.
YCSWU 8-0 (/): Did it big this week with a bit of a scattered roster. It was a feel good win for the guys present. This week they face their toughest challenge in weeks, in more ways than one.
#NR 7-1 (+1): Clearly I made a mistake bumping them down last week. They pushed their way back into the third spot by flexing the offensive weapons this week.
STL 6-2 (-1): Seriously disappointing loss in a high scoring shootout. The fact that they couldn’t muster a stop without Theo is concerning heading into the playoffs.
Terror Squad 5-3 (+1): Here they come. Tied for the third best win streak in the division. But in reality, they’re the hottest team over the past few weeks.
Bad Boys 4-5 (+1): Got the solid win in a bit of a spotty game versus Clockmakers. They’ve been hot and cold over the past month. But their ceiling always remains as a top 4 team.
Khantroversy 4-5 (-2): Oh mighty Khantroversy, what happened to thee? 3 straight losses makes them the anti-Terror Squad over the past month.
Kings Landing 4-4 (/): Don’t look now, but they can go from the cellar to third in conference B this week with a win over the struggling Khantroversy. We knew it was only a matter of time before these well known vets inserted themselves into the thick of the division. Well done.
Alkaholiks 3-4 (+2): They get a major boost here for knocking down one of the top ranked teams. Spring was in the air early for these old boys, as they played a near perfect game. Would love to see them keep up that level of play.
Prospect Squad 3-6 (-1): Wasn’t the loss that was concerning this week, but how bad they looked in it. Their defense had no clue which way was up, let alone how to form a decent coverage at this level.
Clockmakers 2-6 (-1): From bad to worse each week. Finally some reprieve from a brutal schedule against SYO. Looking forward to seeing what they do in an important “get right” game.
Nighthawks 1-6-1 (/): They deserve major credit for pushing NR to the brink in an old fashion shootout this week. Nincheri vs Wyeth lived up to the billing…and then some.
Killa Bees 1-7 (/): Good to see them out at the field competing hard and having fun even in a tough season. Charlie throws an absolute bullet.
SYO 4 Life 0-7-1 (/): Good for them for getting a solid roster out to the field and scoring some points against a very strong Braves 2.0.

Avraam’s Spreads:

I decided to spice things up for the projections this season. Welcome to Avraam’s Spreads, where the old head of FPF will play bookie on a weekly basis, handicapping the games for us with just the right amount of juice. No need for picks this week, as most of the games have already commenced, but here’s the layout of the divisions.

Braves (-6.5) vs Finest

Got Fat vs DK (-8)

Monstars vs Waste Yout (-5)

Flag Moi L’Sac (-5.5) vs D-Boys

NR (-15.5) vs Killa Bees

Kings’s Landing (-2) vs Khantroversy

YCSWU (-8.5) vs Terror Squad

Bad Boys (-13.5) vs Alkaholiks

SYO vs Clockmakers (-6)

Prospect Squad vs Braves 2.0 (-16)

STL (-13.5) vs Nighthawks

That’s it for this week. Week 9 of FPF is officially in the books, and week 10 has already begun. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can hit me up on Facebook. If you’re craving more content please check out the Calling the Audible podcast featuring Moe Khan, Peeze and Simon, it’s a healthy dose of absurdity to get you through the week. Thanks for taking the time to read this, and make sure to check back next week to find out how week 10 shook out!