Playing for Keeps: Half man, half amazing

To begin this week, I’d like to dedicate a special shout out to Vince Nardone, the first selection of the 2019 FPF Hall of Fame Class. You all know him well, so I’ll share a brief impression of having played against him a few times over the years, and now playing with him.

Coming up the ranks in FPF as a QB, it was always a special date to have a Vince-led defense on the schedule. Something to circle on the calendar with a red marker. That day, you knew, you’d need to be extra sharp. One less beer the night before, watch what you eat the morning of. Keep the game day routine sharp.

You knew a chess game awaited you that evening. He would challenge you mentally even more so than physically. For every move you made, he had a counter, for every counter, a counter-counter. He turned the turf into an unwinding minefield, with game-ending traps uncovered only when it was too late. If there was ever a defensive player who reached into my mind while I was on the field, and predicted my next move before the idea even came to me, it was this guy. We’ve all lived the experience of seeing a Vince-designed shoot fire off just as soon as we decided where to throw the ball. The inevitable agony of watching the defensive piece move into our line of fire, just as the ball releases from our fingertips. No going back. Crap. Nice trap.

The most impressive part is that he did it all with his ability to lead others. An outstanding defensive player of great capability on his own, his greatest asset is his ability to get even better athletes than he to follow him. Buy into his ideas, go where he tells them to go on the field. There aren’t many players that I’ve seen over the years command the type of respect he does from both teammates and competitors alike. For that reason he’s the gold standard of a Hall of Famer. When you think of him, you think of excellence.

Congrats Vince, long overdue.

This week we continue to nix the standard, formulaic article, in favor of a more creative approach.

Consider this the second half of a two week “midseason special.” We’ll take a look at intriguing storylines from across both divisions, in a borrowed segment from ESPN Zach Lowe’s “10 Things” articles.

4 Things (I like and Dislike)

ANP, the new sheriff in town

Alex Nadeau-Piuze is flexing right now, averaging 252 yards and 6.5 TDs with only half an INT per game. For historical context, the greatest yardage season ever was 2493 passing yards, produced by the maestro Rick Nincheri in 2013. The two greatest TD seasons ever were produced by Kevin Wyeth with 66 and 65 TDs (in 2013 and 2014). ANP is chasing history at his current pace. He’s like James Harden chasing Wilt Chamberlain for consecutive 30 point games. Only the legends sit before him at this point.

His stats were obviously boosted by the ridiculous 279 yard, 9 TD game versus Got-Fat, but even outside of that game he’s been phenomenal each week. Working with an at times shallow receiving corps, he’s managed to move the ball fluidly and finish drives at will against the best defenses in the league. If his top receivers are in regular attendance over the final 6 games of the season and he doesn’t miss a game, we might be witnessing at minimum a top 3 season all-time. Even if we factor in some second half regression and he falls just short of the record books, it feels like the torch has begun to be passed.

Still, the moment of truth will only bear out in the playoffs, when the inevitable Flag Mon L’Sac vs MTL Finest showdown transpires. That will be the defining moment when the greatest FPF player of all time will either pass the baton to the next generation of premier gunslinger…or…not…

The Braves takeover is nearly complete

The Braves joined FPF in winter 2017 and immediately took division 2 by force, winning the title in their inaugural season, with Jonathan Maheu throwing 60 TDs in his first attempt. It doesn’t feel like a very long time ago, but consider this: at the time Kyrie Irving and LeBron James were teammates on the Cleveland Cavaliers: two nights ago they faced off against each other as Celtics and Lakers. Things change fast, sometimes faster than we can keep tabs on.

That’s the kind of rapid, meteoric rise the Braves have witnessed so far in this league. In only 5 seasons prior to this winter they’ve captured 2 titles, steadily rising up the ranks each year. Finally, this season they’ve arrived as one of the premier contenders in a deep division 1. At 3-1-1 they sit atop the div 1 standings, and their 66 +/- is an amazing 53 points higher than the next ranked opponent. Their most recent stretch of matches has been the most dominant: first their shocking 52-25 beat down of the Finest, and this past week their 49-19 demolishing of the upstart Monstars. With each passing week they look more and more like the new favorite in division 1. Their roster is loaded from top to bottom with hard-nosed, two-way stars. Most importantly, they built their success from the defense up. They’re capable of playing man against any offensive alignment, but their true strength is their aggressive zone.

In div 2 they comfortably sit at the top of conference A with a pristine 5-0 record. Since week 1, no team has come within single digits of them by the final score. With his dissection of Nighthawks this past week, Maheu has assumed first place in the QBOY rankings. HOF nominee JD Chevalier is just unstoppable at this level. No one can follow him 40 yards downfield.

The Braves currently sit in first place in divisions 1 and 2. We’ve never had the same franchise win both of FPFs top divisions in the same season. If the Braves can finish what they’ve started so far this winter, their takeover of FPF will already be complete.

Curious case of the Monstars

Largely disregarded before the season, slated to finish with a mediocre record and fade down the stretch, this team came out swinging and made the biggest splash in the first few weeks of the season. Even after the recent Braves debacle, which of course occurred without their starting QB and star player Rod Mashotub, they still impressively hold down the second spot in the standings. They’ve demonstrated the mark of a mature team by pulling off some narrow victories at the end of tight games. The defense has a booming 9 INTs in 5 games, the best mark in the division, to go along with 6 sacks. They’ve proven that they’re here to ball, and are thoroughly entrenched as a legitimate div 1 contender. This team is definitely not a gimmick.

Still, there are a few troubling signs under the hood. A closer look shows that Mashtoub is the lowest rated QB in the division (see ratings below). He’s struggled mightily so far, the only QB in his class to average under 200 total yards per game. He’s also averaging a troubling 1.5 INTs per game. He’ll need to elevate his play in the second half of the year to match his stout defense. Also, a quick glance at their victories shows that they’ve beaten the bottom half teams in the division. We’ll need to see them upset one of the favorites before the #Monstars2019 tag becomes a real thing.

A dust up against an expectantly irritated MTL Finest this week should be a good indicator of where they stand in the hierarchy. After that, they repeat the schedule from the first half of the year. It’s hard to ask a young team to do more than win games, such as they’re doing, but it feels like they need to fine-tune their play a bit in the second half of the season in order to make us all believers.

Stuck in Neutral

A quick glance at the division 2 standings reveals a glut of veteran teams currently floundering to sub .500 and negative +/- seasons to begin the year. These are teams comprised of the staples of FPF, the household names that we’ve become accustomed to hearing throughout the years.

Terror Squad, Nighthawks, King’s Landing and Bad Boys have all stumbled out the gates in 2019. Incomplete rosters, some due to injury or absence, others due to poor construction, are mostly to blame for these inauspicious starts. However, not to be overlooked is the changing guard of the league. Div 2 is being overrun by an influx of middle division stars congregating and making their push in the premier divisions. YCSWU, STL, Khantroversy and #NR are all well-built teams with young and hungry dogs in the race, eager to prove themselves to the fledging guard of the leagues former elite.

Of the struggling teams above the most likely to emerge as a challenger by season’s end is Bad Boys. Finally complete and healthy this past week, we got a taste of their potential as they gave Khantroversy a run for their money. Nicolas Arsenault-Hum looked good in his second action of the year, showing burst on offense while covering a healthy range of the field on defense. His integration into this lineup will be the determining factor for their outlook. The team is talented and deep enough to contend in this division. The question will be the play of Patrick Chénard at pivot. While he was inaccurate this past week, completing a shade over 50% of his passes, we’ve seen him turn it on in the past when the games begin to matter. He’ll need to start sharpening his blade for the second half of the season, as Bad Boys have a brutal schedule down the stretch.

The next most likely turnaround should be the winless King’s Landing. Currently sitting in the cellar of a stacked conference B, this team is finally crawling out of the death row part of their schedule, with greener pastures ahead. More importantly, the A-version lineup that was only present versus YCSWU should finally begin to show more consistently. There’s no doubt that they’ll need both Anthony Vendrame and Zach Jauniaux to compliment Vinny Gualano on offense for this team to thrive. Sean Avraam is a crafty quarterback, but asking him to win with their first half lineup was too tall a task for anyone. They’ll need to get more selfish on defense if they truly want to thrive, and get their best players out there on both sides of the ball. The potential is there, the only question left is if they possess the resolve to make it happen. The beers will always be cold, but they taste far better after a win…or a string of wins…

Player Value Rankings (Div 1)

This is the second part of a special dive into individual player stats. I decided to take a deeper look into player rankings at the QB and WR positions, introducing the Z-Score to rank players by available stats.

Simply put, the Z-score is the number of standard deviations from the mean a data point sits at. For our purposes, the Z-Score will measure how far a player ranks either above or below the divisional average at your position. The higher the Z-Score, the better you’ve ranked in comparison to your peers. These were introduced here: they aren’t perfect, but they’re fun.

This week we look at Div 1.

Big Board

For QBs, I attributed equal weight to each of the measurable statistical categories. That means Yards, TDs, and INTs all have an equal impact on the final rating. The final player value (PV) is achieved by summing all the individual scores for each category.

Without further ado, here are your Div 1 QB rankings through week 5:

PLAYER	GP	YDS	YDS AV	YDS Value	TD	TD AV	TD Value	INT	INT AV	INT Value	PV
Alex Nadeau-Piuze	4	1009	252	1,41	26	6,5	1,66	2	0,5	1,36	4,42
Jonathan Maheu	5	1065	213	-0,55	28	5,6	0,44	1	0,2	2,00	1,89
Nicola Centomo	3	721	240	0,81	18	6,0	0,98	4	1,3	-0,41	1,38
Kevin Wyeth	4	958	240	0,77	22	5,5	0,31	6	1,5	-0,77	0,31
Rochdi Benabdelkader	4	879	220	-0,21	21	5,3	-0,03	6	1,5	-0,77	-1,01
Dan Lazzara	3	706	235	0,56	13	4,3	-1,27	4	1,3	-0,41	-1,12
Marco Masciotra	4	809	202	-1,08	19	4,8	-0,71	5	1,3	-0,23	-2,02
Rod Mashtoub	4	758	190	-1,71	17	4,3	-1,38	6	1,5	-0,77	-3,86

Some Observations:

As mentioned above, Alex Nadeau-Piuze is doing historical things so far, rooting for him to keep up this pace…Jonathan Maheu deserves major credit, any other season he’d be the top gunslinger with stats like the ones he’s produced so far…Nicola Centomo has been excellent so far, the question is can he maintain this level of play?…I might have picked the worst week to do this ranking, after a decade of being the absolute best, we caught Kevin Wyeth in fourth place following a single poor outing. That speaks more to the phenomenal level of play we’ve seen from the top pivots in div 1 so far this winter. Check back in a few weeks…The rest of the list are negative value QBs so far, meaning overall they’re below average for the division. Of the batch, Rochdi Benabdelkader is playing well so far. If he can clean up some INTs he’ll be back in the black in no time…Marco Masciotra will explode one of these weeks and get back into the race as well…The young guys have some work to do, 4.3 TDs per game won’t cut it down the stretch.

Bigger Board

For WRs, I used a weighted average assigning Yards and TDs 4X as much value as REC in the final player value (PV).

Here are your week 5 rankings for the top 30 WRs from Div 1:

PLAYER	GP	REC AV	R-Value	YDS AV	Y-Value	TD AV	T-Value	PV
Serge Pilon Jr.	4	7,3	2,87	72,5	1,90	3,0	3,31	7,90
Patrick Jérome	4	5,3	1,52	71,5	1,85	2,3	2,18	5,87
Jean-Daniel Chevalier	3	4,0	0,68	77,0	2,12	2,0	1,80	5,45
Mikhaïl Davidson	3	4,3	0,90	71,0	1,82	1,7	1,29	4,45
Georges Gariépy	5	4,8	1,21	71,4	1,84	1,6	1,19	4,45
AJ Gomes	3	5,7	1,80	71,7	1,86	1,3	0,79	4,12
Samuel Nadeau-Piuze	4	4,5	1,01	55,5	1,05	1,8	1,42	3,62
Theo Bekelis	5	4,6	1,08	52,4	0,89	1,2	0,58	2,33
Antoine Boulard	3	3,3	0,23	39,0	0,22	1,7	1,29	2,09
Jean-François Marquis	3	3,3	0,23	47,3	0,64	1,3	0,79	1,97
Theo Ojeaha	3	3,7	0,45	55,0	1,02	1,0	0,28	1,89
Raoul Baroudi	5	3,8	0,54	47,8	0,66	0,8	-0,02	1,03
Quaid Johnson	3	3,0	0,00	34,3	-0,01	1,3	0,79	1,03
JP St-Pierre	3	3,3	0,23	28,3	-0,31	1,3	0,79	0,70
Guillaume Robert	4	3,0	0,00	45,3	0,53	0,8	-0,10	0,58
Tam Vilaydeth	4	4,0	0,68	47,0	0,62	0,5	-0,48	0,42
Justin McLean	3	2,7	-0,22	34,0	-0,03	1,0	0,28	0,26
Khalil Kerr	3	5,7	1,80	43,7	0,45	0,3	-0,73	0,23
Kishon Thompson	3	3,0	0,00	29,7	-0,25	1,0	0,28	0,04
David Centomo	3	2,7	-0,22	30,3	-0,21	1,0	0,28	0,01
Matt Kirouac	4	2,5	-0,34	30,3	-0,22	1,0	0,28	-0,03
Karim Binette	3	4,3	0,90	37,0	0,12	0,3	-0,73	-0,51
Jason Courchesne	5	3,0	0,00	25,8	-0,44	0,8	-0,02	-0,62
Mathieu Lepage	4	3,0	0,00	33,3	-0,07	0,5	-0,48	-0,73
Alex Pilon	3	2,7	-0,22	26,3	-0,41	0,7	-0,23	-0,93
Mike Pierrecin	5	2,8	-0,13	24,2	-0,52	0,6	-0,33	-1,17
Matt Bond	4	2,5	-0,34	20,5	-0,71	0,8	-0,10	-1,19
Thierry Gerville	5	2,0	-0,67	26,2	-0,42	0,6	-0,33	-1,22
Jordan McLaren	4	2,3	-0,50	26,8	-0,39	0,5	-0,48	-1,33
Jonathan Beaulieu-Richard	3	2,7	-0,22	28,3	-0,31	0,3	-0,73	-1,47

Some Observations:

3 things to bank on in life, the third is that Serge Pilon Jr. will be the top receiver in any division that he plays in. The man is a walking legend…Speaking of legends, Pat Jerome basically had an invisible game offensively last week and still sits in second place. Speaks to the beastly season that he’s had to date…Jean-Daniel Chevalier and Georges Gariépy are the Thunder and Earth, the one-two punch that make the Braves filthy…Mikhaïl Davidson is the key to FML’s championship hopes. He elevates their offense to another level…While Samuel Nadeau-Piuze is the Steady Eddy, who’s consistent production sets the pace for this lineup on a weekly basis…AJ Gomes wants to prove that he’s one of the very best in the league, and he’s doing it so far this year. He’s both slippery and explosive…There’s some widespread belief that Theo Bekelis has become the best snapper in the league. The way he’s playing I don’t see a logical argument against it… Jean-François Marquis has been sneaky impressive so far for Got Fat. He’s not the quickest but he knows how to play the angles and use his height to his advantage… Quaid Johnson’s 3 game suspension hurts the D-Boys depth on O, look for Justin McLean to fill the gap in the meantime…Guillaume Robert has been clutch for FML. He steps up BIG in games when they’re missing starters.

Power Rankings

Braves 3-1-1 (+1): They’ve been in demolition mode that pas 2 weeks. Low-Key trap game ahead this week?
FML 2-1-1 (-1): The fact that they slipped from the top without even playing shows just how tenuous the grasp on the first ranked spot is right now.
Montréal’s Finest 2-2 (/): They should be riled up for this week’s game. After consecutive losses, a young and thriving team senses blood and will come to ravage them.
D-Boys 1-3 (/): This week is a huge game for both teams involved. Strong veteran teams underperforming out of the gate. One of them will fall to 1-4 on the season.
Monstars 3-2 (/): Here we go. This team seemingly has “prove-it-to-us” games each week. They lost to D-Boys but beat Waste Yout. Round 3. Chance to shake up the division. Show us where you stand!
Waste Yout 2-1 (/): Did they learn what they needed to from last week’s loss? Dan Lazzara versus the Sheriff. Has the makings of a high scoring showdown. I love it.
Got-Fat 1-2 (/): Here we go boys. Big challenge before them this week. The hottest team in the league comes to town looking to continue smashing everything in their path. Can you slow them down?
DK 1-3 (/): See D-Boys above. This might actually be more important for DK even.

Braves 2.0 5-0 (/): Nighthawks were like a little flea on a big dog. Easy to shake off. Finally an interesting game on deck this week. Should be a slugfest vs Bad Boys.
YCSWU 4-0 (/): They cleared the “hard” part of their schedule. Is there a trap game in their near future? They need to stay hungry.
#NR 3-1 (/): They’ve been heating up the past 2 weeks. The vision of a repeat is starting to take form. Decent game this week against a bruising veteran team that won’t beat themselves.
STL 4-1 (/): I agree with Simon on podcast, this team is a juggernaut. Will be fun to see them matched up with another heavyweight this week. The clash will be filmed as the GOTW also.
Clockmakers 2-2 (/): Need their full roster present to shore up the defense. Hopefully it all comes together for them this week, faced with another tough challenge.
Khantroversy 3-2 (/): These guys play with a brass, cocky, in-your-face style. It makes beating them all the more sweat. But that’s easier said than done. They’ll roll on offense this week.
Bad Boys 2-3 (/): Looked decent in their first showing as a full team this week. They need a big win to come together as a team and gear up for a second half run. Won’t be easy with the schedule ahead.
Alkaholiks 2-1 (/): We haven’t figured out where to place them yet. This week will be telling. They had a good half in them versus Braves 2.0. What do they have planned for the #?
Nighthawks 1-2-1 (/): Very rough to show up with the short-handed roster they had this past week and expect to compete against a premier div 2 team. Rick continues to battle, but he needs his dogs in this race.
Terror Squad 1-3 (/): This is the game for them. They desperately need this win against a slightly trending, but deeply flawed opponent. I don’t want to think about them taking an L here.
Killa Bees 1-3 (/): With the schedule breaks they’ve had to start the year, they should be .500 by now. King’s Landing has a special surprise in store for them this week. Let’s see how gritty the Killa Bees can be.
Kings Landing 0-4 (/): Put up or shut up time this week.
Prospect Squad 1-4 (/): There’s some buzz that they have good odds to get their second victory this week. It’ll be telling to see just how far they’ve come in the past 3 weeks. Seemed to take a minor step back last week, but that’s okay when you’re trying to build on the fly.
SYO 4 Life 0-3-1 (/): Have a tough matchup in front of them this week, but its all tough matchups from here. They catch a short-handed YCSWU who will need to battle complacency along with their opponent.

Avraam’s Spreads:

I decided to splice things up for the projections this season. Welcome to Avraam’s Spreads, where the old head of FPF will play bookie on a weekly basis, handicapping the games for us with just the right amount of juice. Featuring Simon Dagenais and bonus picks from the odds maker himself.

Waste Yout vs Flag Moi L’Sac (-2.5)

Alex’s pick: FML

Simon’s pick: FML

Sean’s pick: FML

D-Boys (-5) vs DK

Alex’s pick: D-Boys

Simon’s pick: DK

Sean’s pick: DK

Monstars vs Montreal’s Finest (-6.5)

Alex’s pick: MTL Finest

Simon’s pick: MTL Finest

Sean’s pick: Monstars

Got Fat vs Braves (-11.5)

Alex’s pick: Got Fat

Simon’s pick: Braves

Sean’s pick: Braves

STL vs Clockmakers (-2)

Alex’s pick: STL

Simon’s pick: STL

Sean’s pick: Clockmakers

Killa Bees vs King’s Landing (EVEN)

Alex’s pick: King’s Landing

Simon’s pick: King’s Landing

Sean’s pick: King’s Landing

YCSWU (-10) vs SYO 4 LIFE

Alex’s pick: NA

Simon’s pick: YCSWU

Sean’s pick: YCSWU

Terror Squad (-3) vs Prospect Squad

Alex’s pick: Terror Squad

Simon’s pick: Prospect Squad

Sean’s pick: Prospect Squad

Alkaholics vs #NR (-2)

Alex’s pick: NR

Simon’s pick: NR

Sean’s pick: NR

Khantroversy (-7) vs Nighthawks

Alex’s pick: Khantroversy

Simon’s pick: Khantroversy

Sean’s pick: Khantroversy

Braves 2.0 (-3.5) vs Bad Boys

Alex’s pick: Braves 2.0

Simon’s pick: Braves 2.0

Sean’s pick: Braves 2.0

That’s it for this week. Week 5 of FPF is officially in the books, and week 6 is quickly approaching. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can hit me up on Facebook. If you’re craving more content please check out the Calling the Audible podcast featuring Moe Khan, Peeze and Simon, it’s a healthy dose of absurdity to get you through the week. Thanks for taking the time to read this, and make sure to check back next week to find out how week 6 shook out!