Playing for Keeps: Butter for your popcorn

Campbell’s law states that once a metric has been identified as a primary indicator for success, its ability to accurately measure such success tends to be compromised. The reason for this is simple: The more any indicator is used for decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the processes it is intended to monitor. Simply put, we tend to corrupt the things that we obsess over.

You don’t need to look any further than the next FPF field to see the proof of concept. Scoring more touchdowns leads to a greater chance at wins. For QBs, scoring more touchdowns and gaining more yards also leads to a greater chance to win the coveted QBOY award. Somewhere in the heat and fever of the mid-season push, good QBs start to believe that going for the QBOY award also gives their team a greater chance at winning the championship. This is where the confirmation bias takes over. It’s just not true. We need to understand the difficulty of winning a a championship. The rarity of it. All the unique and fine-tuned pieces of a team moving in perfect synchronization, like a symphony orchestra. It has nothing to do with individual awards.

The problem is that by playing primarily for the award, QBs will try to be as risk-adverse as possible, in an attempt to lower their INTs. Sure, they’ll try to maximize their volume stats, but will most likely do so by beating the other team over the head with their tried-and-true plays. Old faithful, all year long. Just faster and more often. The early-to-mid portion of the season is the time where offenses need to experiment. Attempt the go-to trips play, throw in some unorthodox ripples to catch defenses off guard, play around with clock management. Incorporate some risk now, so that you can have some unpredictability in your deck come playoffs. By playing for the award each night QBs get tight and fail to implement the necessary creativity that will serve their team when it matters most.

Also, we get the unfortunate case of strong QBs pounding on defeated opponents to an unnecessary level. Get the win, improve your offense, and move on to next week’s matchup. And maybe try to have some fun along the way. This is the way of the Samurai as far as I’ve come to understand it.

Around the Divisions

Scary moment late in the second half between STL and Clockmakers this week, when Carmine Pollice got blown up by Antonio Lanni on a coincidental collision along the goal line. Despite landing awkwardly and drawing a grimace from everyone in attendance, the veteran snapper sprung right up and remained in action. When asked how he felt he replied: “would feel better if I held onto the ball.” This is the type of hard-nosed football that has come to characterize STL this season, and carried them to a gritty 38-26 beat down on the Clockmakers this week.
11 pm is killing the D-Boys. The late night scheduling has caused them to scramble for players the past two weeks, leading to a pair of losses with less-than-stellar div 1 rosters. Currently sitting at 1-4, on the outside of the playoffs looking in, with two more 11 pm games on the slate, they desperately need a feel good win to bring this group together for a stretch run. Hopefully we’re not witnessing the downfall of a proud FPF franchise.
In my opinion this is the best week of the year for Div 1/2 matchups. Div 1 has never had tighter spreads (see Avraam’s section below) while the Div 2 rankings can shift in a major way after this weekend.
I’m seeing a discouraging trend of winning quarterbacks electing to continue the game when up with less than 4 plays to go. If you have the first down, you should ice the game, plain and simple. Stop chasing gravy stats in order to boost your chances at a trophy. Your more dignified opponents in the race are not taking those cheap stats, so do you really feel proud pouring them on? Respect for your opponent is key. Down the line, people will remember your character on the field and forget your stats.
Waste Yout’s AJ Gomes was suspended this past week for 3 OCs on the year. Every 2 OCs/URs combined from here on out will result in an additional week’s suspension. It’ll be interesting to see if certain opponents will use that to try and bait him. If you thought that was a lot of majors, WY teammate Jersey Henry has 4 on the year. Cooler heads will surely prevail for the strong, but erratic Waste Yout roster down the stretch. They can no longer afford to be without either piece.
One of the Original Gangsters at the rushing position, Ryan Aridi, is currently leading the pack with 9 sacks in 6 games in Div 2. This puts him squarely in the face for DPOY as well. He goes around telling everyone that he’s lost a step, but don’t be fooled, the Hall of Famer has still got it.

Recaps

Flag Moi L’Sac vs Waste Yout

In his first game as a freshly minted Hall of Famer, Dan Lazzara showed up to Hebert on Sunday night with an unorthodox Waste Yout roster to face off against the powerhouse Flag Moi L’Sac. Missing from WY were the suspended AJ Gomes (1 week for 3 OC’s) and the underrated defensive presence of Jersey Henry. FML were without two-way star Mikhaïl Davidson, but by rolling out an 8 man personnel they were deeper than usual.

Following a FML touchdown from ANP to his brother Sam on the opening possession, we got to witnesses Lazzara’s tailor-made strategy for operating with this lineup. Understanding that the matchups were not in his favor, he elected to go with short routes all night, hoping to control the clock and keep ANP on the sidelines, while limiting his potential for turnovers. After a clutch run on fourth down for the conversion, he hit snapper Khalil Kerr on a quick goal line slant for the score.

Eschewing his usual cautious and accurate approach, ANP heaved a deep ball into traffic on the first pass of his second drive. The ball was batted in the air and picked off by Jarryd Taylor. WY suddenly had some vigor, as they sensed an early edge in the game.

Dan had ice in his blood in the early part of this game, as he converted another fourth and 5, this time in his own half. He chipped away at the FML defense and after several plays positioned his team at the opponent’s 5 yard line. Trusting the agility of Jarryd Taylor in short, he slung a dart into the angular chest of his receiver on a smash-out from the goal-line. The FML defender was stubborn and got just enough of his arm into the play to rip the ball out before the catch was completed. The ball traveled in the air briefly before landing in the Vendrame’s bread basket for the pick. Lazzara, known for getting hot faster than a microwave, momentarily lost his cool at the perceived non-call and quickly got on the referees about it.

A quick exchange of scores pursued between the two teams, with Dan rebounding from the previous possession by dropping an absolute dime in-between two defenders to James Ohayon on the post. On the final drive before half FML got to the WY 1 yard line with exactly 1 play to go. ANP, as cool as they come, took the snap and calmly manipulated the defense with a look-off and pump fake before delivering the score to Vendrame along the back end zone line. FML took a 19-14 lead into the break.

With a full half of observation under their belt, FML adjusted to Lazzara’s play calling and quickly shut down his scratching and clawing the second time around. The problem with relying on short passes is that they require a high success rate in order to work. Any small hiccup can quickly throw off an otherwise fluid drive. That’s just what happened out of the break, as a huge sack by SNP on third down put the WY offense in a fourth and 15 predicament from their own zone. WY reluctantly elected to punt, and were immediately punished with a 30 yard post TD from ANP to Prevost. You could sense the hope starting to fade from the underdogs.

The next drive saw the flood gates poor open for WY, as Dan took two more sacks from SNP, and turned the ball over on fourth down.

Despite being too late for his team, Zach Jauniaux made some noteworthy plays down the stretch in this game. The first came on the following drive, where he bodied up vendrame perfectly on deep ball coverage and snatched the interception away at the ball’s high point. He followed that up with a beautiful 35 yard Willy Mays like over-the-shoulder touchdown catch with the defender draped on him.

In the end, picking off ANP two times was not enough for the short-handed Waste Yout, as they succumbed to a 38-20 deficit and fall back to .500 on the season. FML move up to 3-1-1 and remain only a half game back from Braves for the top spot in the division.

King’s Landing vs Killa Bees

Heading into this game it was no secret that King’s Landing desperately needed a win in 2019. With a full roster in tow for only the second time this season, this represented their best chance to get back in the conference B playoff race. Killa Bees have been an interesting team to date. Their 1-3 record before the game was indicative of an inexperienced flag team in a high division, but the surprising amount of close games spoke to their deep tackle football experience.

One stat that goes hidden is that Sean Avraam has only thrown 2 interceptions on the season thus far, good for a first place tie in the division. He’s been carefully managing the offense through the lean weeks, and making the best out of what’s provided to him. This week he finally had his major weapons back, but with a lack of chemistry they still showed that they have some work to do going forward. Still, the relief was palpable, as Vendrame and Jauniaux led the team with a combined 113 yards and 3 TDs. Another overlooked aspect has been the absence of Steve Sanner the past 2 weeks. This team really believes in the hard-nosed veteran, and he rewarded them with a solid effort on both sides of the ball.

In order to have succeeded throughout the year, the Killa Bees were supposed to develop as a whole. Ideally we should be seeing less Simon Charbonneau-Campeau and more from the rest of the roster. This hasn’t been the case as of late. SCC was Mr. Everything for them this week, raking up 97 yards and a TD on offense, while sacking Avraam twice form the rush and forcing him into many more incompletions. Charles St-Martin throws a sharp dagger from QB, but lacks the touch to make some of the trickier throws on this small FPF field. He added another 3 INTs to his season total of 8, the most in the division over the first half of the season.

In the end, some field mismanagement led Killa Bees to come back in the game, as King’s Landing elected to go for it on fourth and short from their own territory while up 25-12 late. After having their lead cut to a one score game, King’s landing found themselves in a similar position on the next drive, this time fourth and long. After a too-long-for-comfort debate, they wisely elected to punt it, giving Killa Bees four plays from their own starting line. Give St-martin credit for moving his offense into scoring range, but he threw the game-sealing INT on the last pass of the game from 15 yards out.

King’s Landing finally removed the monkey from their back, and look to double up next week versus a slumping Alkaholics. Killa Bees will take their 1-4 record into a bludgeoning versus STL.

Finest find their groove against Monstars

Much has been made recently about the Finest’s two game losing streak, but if the spectre of three straight losses loomed over them in any way, it was certainly not on display Monday night at Hebert. With a full roster in tow they took on a shorthanded Monstars team, featuring special guest Myles Gibbons at QB. Let’s just say Kevin Wyeth would made sure this game went next to perfect for his team.

Gibbons, throwing his first FPF pass in a year, was predictably rusty on the opening drive. An initial turnover on downs gave the Finest favorable field position, with Wyeth hitting Jerome on the corner route for the opening score. After a relatively quiet 2 week period from Jerome (at least by his standards), his retour de force was vigorously announced with 68 yards and 4 TDs on the night.

Gibbons quickly found his groove on the second drive, shifting the rusher before finding Ryan Aridi on a wide open streak down the right sidelines.

An exchange of four consecutive touchdowns pursued. Highlights included Jerome making Hall of Fame toast out of Jad Aridi on a 40 yard bomb. And Sam Mashtoub reeling in a pair of ridiculous sideline grabs as Gibbons continued to cook from behind the line of scrimmage.

The Finest got the ball back for the final drive of the half with 4 plays remaining. Wyeth manoeuvered his team to their opponent’s 7 yard line for the last heave. As is customary in tight quarters, Wyeth went to his big man Akked Moore on the goal line. Usually as sure handed as they come, this time the ball slipped through his paws, skidded off his shoulder and flew precariously in the air. The young Mashtoub happily plucked off the gift and began sledding his way towards the Finest’s endzone. With no one to stop him but Wyeth, he turned on the burners and gave his team a surprising lead heading into the break – all to the soundtrack of Jad Aridi’s iconic “Let’s Goooo!”

The opening drive of the second half saw the Finest quickly grab back the lead. A second turnover on downs of from Monstars gave the Finest the chance to extend it. Wyeth nestled a perfect dagger in the back of the end zone for Jerome’s fourth score of the night. All the hype from halftime quickly vanished, and the Finest took back the driver’s seat in convincing fashion. Wyeth finished the game with an amazing 23 of 24 completions, for 228 yards and 6 TDs, with the lone blemish mentioned above.

An exchange of touchdowns – including a slippery Bekelis and a high rising Hogue – left Monstars with the ball and one minute to make up a 7 point deficit. They quickly moved to midfield with 5 plays remaining, but then abruptly stalled. With two plays left Gibbons took a disastrous sack from Hogue, pushing them back even further. The final heave of the game sailed out of the endzone, signalling the return to the win column for the Finest, with a 40-33 victory.

Khantroversy survive pesky Nighthawks

Nighthawks rolled out their most impressive lineup of the season on Monday night at Hebert, giving the heavily favorited Khantroversy team a run for their money. The legendary Hurricane connection of Rick Nincheri and Robbie Robinson hasn’t skipped a beat over the years, as Robbie tossed on a black jersey for the first time this year and tore up Khantroversy for 101 yards and 2 TDs on 7 catches. Nincheri was sharp in this game early on, using his favorite weapon repeatedly at all levels of the field. He finished the night with another impressive showing, adding 246 yards to his season total.

With the Nighthawks offense humming early on, they threatened to take a one score lead into the half. However, with 2 plays left from the opponent’s 10 yard line, Dan Lazzara was able to break free from the rusher and find the newly inducted Hall of Famer Jad Aridi at the goal line to tie the game at 19. Jad celebrated the career accomplishment with a big line of 10 catches for 88 yards and a pair of TDs.

The momentum turning moment of this game occurred right after the break. The Nighthawks, who had pushed Lazzara to multiple fourth down scenarios in the first half, could never come up with the final play on defense to break serve. Lazzara found himself in familiar territory on his opening drive of the second half, on 4th down at the opponent’s 7 yard line. Rusher Hinsley Adams fired off a blistering sprint and had Lazzara dead to rights on his back foot without a read, but fortune was not in the cards for Nighthawks, as the usually sure handed rusher completely whiffed on the gimmie sack. Lazzara was then allowed to step up in the pocket and find Thierry Gerville in the back of the end zone for the go-ahead score.

On the following possession Nincheri finally ceded the game’s first turnover. He slung a sharp deep pass to a streaking Robinson, but Jad’s close pursuit put him in position tip the pass at the final moment. The ball bobbled in the air momentarily before being secured by Sam Mashtoub for the interception. It would be the only mistake needed for Khantroversy, as they cleaned up their offensive drives the rest of the way and finished with a 39-25 victory.

If the Nighthawks can keep the same roster together next week they should be in good position against a struggling Prospects Squad. As for Khantroversy, Dan Lazzara will get a chance to double down on his revenge versus the Braves this winter, with a dust up against the undefeated 2.0.

Victoire de caractère de Terror Squad aux dépens de Prospect Squad

(texte de Nicolas Belleau)

L’impasse semble se dénouer au retour de l’entracte alors que Prospect Squad mène 13 à 12. Kevin Lubin continue son beau travail en pression en rabattant des passes.

Ses talents de playmaker des deux côtés du ballon conduisent d’ailleurs au court touché du CFLer Alexandre Chevrier qui fait 18-12 en faveur de TS. Anthony Tanguay inscrit le converti d’un point.

Dès la séquence suivante, Lubin impose encore un intense stress sur Mario Porreca, mais se blesse sévèrement en ratant de quelques centimètres un sac. Il n’en faut pas davantage à Porreca pour prendre son élan et décamper 25 verges plus loin afin de redonner espoir à son club. Le pivot rate cependant sa tentative sur la transformation et l’égalité persiste avec quelques minutes à faire au match.

Gonflé à bloc, TS gruge du terrain avec notamment une longue course du dangereux relayeur Tam Vilaydeth. Or, les hommes d’orange vêtus manquent d’opportunisme dans la zone payante quand Tanguay rate un one hand catch et que Pat Jérome aboutit sur la ligne des buts du fond avec l’objet ovale.

Le jeu subséquent est toutefois digne d’un scénario hollywoodien! Le remplaçant rusheur Cristian Turenne fonce vers Tam et le retient vigoureusement. Ce dernier n’arrête pas de jouer malgré la pénalité et repère Serge “Clutchy” Pilon Jr. qui attrape, roule au sol, se relève et marque un majeur primordial. Jo Duclair y va avec le converti.

Vraisemblablement affamé, Pilon Jr. effectue ensuite une interception sur une longue passe de Porreca.

Chevrier accepte ultimement une petite offrande de Tam avant de filer sur les 30 verges le séparant de la zone promise. Dynell Pierre réduit trop peu trop tard l’écart grâce à un belle réception sautée, mais Pilon Jr. en ajoute en terminant sa journée de travail sur un pick-2. Un gain de 35-25 pour Terror Squad.

Power Rankings

Braves 4-1-1 (/): They been making a mockery of the division the past 3 weeks. This week will be their judgment day, as the winner will assume first place in the standings.
FML 3-1-1 (/): Same as above. Please no tie this time.
Montréal’s Finest 3-2 (/): Back on track with a big statement win last week where Wyeth was as close to perfect as it gets. This week they need to cement their turnaround by weathering a desperate D-Boys on the early slate.
Monstars 3-3 (+1): The mixtape has been kinda fun the past two weeks, but please bring back Rod Mashtoub at Q. We all miss the giant slayers.
Waste Yout 2-2 (+1): This team needs to focus more on improving each week and less on the refs. They don’t want to get the rap of being the “head case” team in the division. When on and focused they’re as talented as Braves.
DK 2-3 (+2): They’ve put together a couple of flashy wins against celebrated opponents working through shorthanded rosters. It’s time for DK to announce their legitimacy with a big win against a fully stacked contender. This week, perhaps?
D-Boys 1-4 (-3): 11 pm, the time when most get ready for sleep, D-Boys are at fields scrounging for players. They need to somehow work past the scheduling and salvage their season. At the end of the night, their opponents are still out there beating them past midnight.
Got-Fat 1-3 (-1): Took a step back this past week with only 7 players listed against a red-hot Braves. This week is a critical moment to see if they can rebound and salvage their postseason hopes. Plain and simple, they need a second win asap. Their advantage is that they’ve played a game less than the field.

Braves 2.0 5-1 (/): Finally dropped a game this week to Bad Boys. Will be interesting to see how they respond against a couple of tough conference B opponents in the next 2 weeks.
YCSWU 5-0 (/): Comfortably cleared SYO from their schedule. Next up a heated game versus a trending Bad Boys team.
#NR 4-1 (/): They keep taking care of business. Not much left on the schedule from here on out. Expect them to move up a spot or two before the season is out.
STL 5-1 (/): Massively underrated at the 4th spot. Great value to pick them right now for a Div 2 championship run.
Khantroversy 4-2 (+1): Heating up at the right time, with 2 very tough games ahead. Dan lazzara is quietly having a valuable season, with only 2 INTs so far.
Bad Boys 3-3 (+1): They definitely get the nod for team of the week, after knocking off a previously undefeated opponent. Let’s see if they can do it all over again.
Clockmakers 2-3 (-2): Went back to looking unimpressive versus STL. They did not live up to the intensity put forth by their opponent. Sneaky big game this week if TS brings out the A-squad.
Alkaholiks 2-2 (/): Small roster with dearth of talent meant major pains for them this past week. Fairly tough schedule the rest of the way will give us a good indication of just how deep they can reach.
Nighthawks 1-3-1 (/): The new look Robbie Robinson and Cerantola offense looked great this week. Sadly it did not help their porous defense. I like them to build some momentum in the second half IF they can bring out a similar squad each week.
Terror Squad 2-3 (/): Similar to above, if they can keep Jerome and Pilon each week look out. Keep a close eye on these guys over the second half of the year.
Kings Landing 1-4 (+1): Announced a major new addition this week, let’s see if they can get all their big guns out at the same time. Only issue is they may have too many cooks in the kitchen right now.
Killa Bees 1-4 (-1): Trending downwards after a second consecutive ugly loss. They play hard, but they need to be more efficient on both sides of the ball.
Prospect Squad 1-5 (/): Tough loss this week in a close game against a solid opponent. Keep your heads up and keep chipping away.
SYO 4 Life 0-4-1 (/): Continued to look better since the addition of Cerantola at pivot. They need to get more organized on defense ASAP.

Avraam’s Spreads:

I decided to splice things up for the projections this season. Welcome to Avraam’s Spreads, where the old head of FPF will play bookie on a weekly basis, handicapping the games for us with just the right amount of juice. Featuring bonus picks from the odds maker himself.

D-Boys vs Finest (-6)

Alex’s pick: D-Boys

Sean’s pick: Finest

Simon’s pick: Finest

Monstars (-2) vs DK

Alex’s pick: DK

Sean’s pick: DK

Simon’s pick: DK

Got Fat vs Waste Yout (-6)

Alex’s pick: Got-Fat

Sean’s pick: Waste Yout

Simon’s pick: Waste Yout

Flag Moi L’Sac vs Braves (-1)

Alex’s pick: FML

Sean’s pick: Braves

Simon’s pick: Braves

STL (-10) vs Killa Bees

Alex’s pick: STL

Sean’s pick: STL

Simon’s pick: STL

Kings’s Landing (-3) vs Alkaholics

Alex’s pick: King’s Landing

Sean’s pick: King’s Landing

Simon’s pick: King’s Landing

YCSWU (-4) vs Bad Boys

Alex’s pick: NA

Sean’s pick: YCSWU

Simon’s pick: Bad Boys

Terror Squad vs Clockmakers (-6.5)

Alex’s pick: Terror squad

Sean’s pick: Clockmakers

Simon’s Pick: Clockmakers

SYO vs #NR (-14)

Alex’s pick: #NR

Sean’s pick: SYO

Simon’s pick: #NR

Prospect Squad vs Nighthawks (-6.5)

Alex’s pick: Nighthawks

Sean’s pick: Nighthawks

Simon’s pick: Prospect Squad

Braves 2.0 (-2.5) vs Khantroversy

Alex’s pick: Braves 2.0

Sean’s pick: Khantroversy

Simon’s pick: Braves 2.0

That’s it for this week. Week 6 of FPF is officially in the books, and week 7 is quickly approaching. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can hit me up on Facebook. If you’re craving more content please check out the Calling the Audible podcast featuring Moe Khan, Peeze and Simon, it’s a healthy dose of absurdity to get you through the week. Thanks for taking the time to read this, and make sure to check back next week to find out how week 7 shook out!