Flo’s Forecast: Round 2 Preview, Round 1 Recaps
30-07-2016 12:00 AM
We’re down to the final four in division A and the elite eight in division B. The only “upset” in either division was the 5th seed Glads taking out the 4th seed Predators on a final play touchdown. There was also a dramatic finish in the Monstars vs. Rainmakers game as Quaysie Gordon-Maule dropped the potential game-tying convert to help the Rainmakers move on to round 2. Elsewhere, Mathieu Rene and his boys struggled out of the gate but thanks to a struggling #NoRegard offense once again, they went into the break leading 7-6 and held on 26-20 with Rene converting on a 3rd down to ice the game. Finally, The Incredibles squeaked by a 5-man Fun Boys squad.
Below are a few in-depth recaps and all six round 2 previews from both divisions.
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Round 1 Recaps:
Ambassadors of Quan 34, Lightweight 21
Turns out bad Simon Dagenais made an appearance for this game as Lightweight struggled to move the ball for much of the night. After failing to score on their first two drives, Lightweight found themselves in a big hole down two scores. On the second drive, a huge game-changing offensive pass interference call was made on a 4th down play where Lightweight scored. Instead of a touchdown, Lightweight had to give it another try on 4th down from the 15-yard line and could not punch it in. They did manage to score before the half and hold the fort on defense to cut the lead to 20-13, but AoQ started with the ball in the second half and scored to regain a two-score lead. On the ensuing drive, Dagenais aired it out for Jamal Gittens, who stuck out one hand and snatched the line drive deep ball right in front of Paul Lapierre’s face for a huge touchdown. On the convert, Gittens went off again as he leaped over a defender, grabbed the ball at its highest point and came down with both feet inbounds to give his team life. After an AoQ touchdown, Dagenais threw an ill-advised interception to Danny D’Amour. However, AoQ failed to put the game out of reach when Gittens continued his great game picking off Alex Holowach in the endzone. Unfortunately for Gittens, his effort was not rewarded as D’Amour picked off Dagenais again on a deep ball down the left sideline. On a day where Alex Holowach played well and made good reads for the most part, Simon Dagenais just couldn’t get it going (he got no help from his snapper Antonin Desgent who dropped everything thrown his way) and Lightweight are left to wonder what could have been had Dagenais been on his game.
Gladiateurs 38, Predators 33
Even though they had a rough regular season behind their struggling quarterback, the Glads are always dangerous in the playoffs no matter what. Alex Lever, who struggled big time in week 10 against these same Predators, had a field day throwing the ball, ending up with more touchdown passes than incompletions. With Alex Nadeau-Piuze there this time around, this was a different team on both sides of the ball. They adjusted well and took away the deep ball for the most part, forcing a short passing game from the Preds. Although they came close, both defenses just couldn’t make any stops. The difference in the game would end up being the number of possessions/plays each team got. With the teams going score for score, the Preds got the ball back with just over four minutes to go down 32-26. Knowing that the last team with the ball would probably win this game, the Preds slowly grinded out the clock purposefully not scoring and eventually did score with three plays left. After a Fred Viens catch on the convert put them ahead 33-32, the Glads’ season looked to be all but over. The Glads then got big chunks of yards on the next two plays and set themselves up for one play from inside the 10-yard line. The rest is history as Lever spotted Nadeau-Piuze all alone in the back of the endzone for the walk off victory. It just goes to show how clock management is so vital and although the Preds thought they did everything right, they left one play too many for the Glads and that ended up being the difference.
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Round 2 Previews:
Division B
CONFERENCE A
#2 Star City (8-1-1) vs. #3 Kings (8-3)
Previous Meeting:
Week 6 – Star City 44, Kings 20
Sure, Star City obliterated the Kings last time these two teams met back in week 6. However, not only have the Kings been playing better since then, they also were missing their best two way players for that tilt in Jad Aridi, Thierry Gerville, and Kevin Gauthier. If Star City comes into this game thinking it will be another easy rout, this could be a trap game for them.
Star City comes off a bye while the Kings come off a sloppy 26-20 defensive battle over #NoRegard in which Mathieu Rene struggled and didn’t seem to be his normal self. The playoffs are always a different beast in FPF but if the Kings hope to upset Star City this week, they’ll need their quarterback to step up and play mistake-free football. With Daniel Lazzara on the other side throwing to his stacked receiving corps like Zach Jauniaux, Quaysie Gordon-Maule, Khalil Kerr, Alex Blanchet and Stephen Casey, there simply won’t be much room for error.
Also noteworthy is the fact that unknown stud defender Abdul Rahim won’t be suiting up for Star City as he only played in three games this season. In those games, Rahim had four picks, a couple of them highlight-reel worthy. Who replaces him on defense? Stephen Casey?
Although I don’t see the Kings winning this game ultimately, I do see them putting up a great fight and making it closer than some people might expect with Star City scoring on their final drive to win by 7.
Prediction: Star City 39, Kings 32
#1 STL (9-0-1) vs. #5 Gladiateurs (5-6)
Previous Meeting:
Week 1 – STL 32, Gladiateurs 19
A week 1 matchup between the two means that we really can’t anything from that game. So much has happened since then, and most importantly, Alex Lever is playing good football as of late, something that could not be said for most of this season. The Glads are just one of those smart, experienced teams that just know how to win games in the playoffs. They’re coming off a thrilling last-play victory against the Predators that saw them lose the lead with three plays left, only to march the field in two plays and complete the miracle with an Alex Nadeau-Piuze touchdown on the final play.
The Nadeau-Piuze factor is huge for this team. When he is there, it seems as though Lever is much more at ease knowing he can count on his big man to make plays for him. And defensively, it enhances their defense quite a bit. STL is coming off a bye week after their impressive 9-0-1 finish. Does the week off hurt them here considering how well they were playing? I think it does in the first half and they come out a little sloppy. What STL cannot afford to do is underestimate the Glads or take this game for granted because although they are more talented and more explosive, the Glads are great at slowing down the game to a boring level and frustrating the other team in doing so.
STL has incredible two-way players in Kyle Lebofsky, Jamie Ojeaha and Guillaume De Palma, and a quarterback in Dylan Taylor that has great chemistry with them. The last time they played, the Glads had no answer for Lebofsky as he went off for 124 yards and 3 touchdowns. Can they stop him this time around? The Glads will need to play their boring brand of football and take STL out of the game mentally if they hope to come away victorious. I think they can do that and if they can hold STL to five possessions all game like they did to the Predators last week, I think they win this in dramatic fashion in a big upset.
Prediction: Gladiateurs 33, STL 32
CONFERENCE B
#2 2HD (7-3) #3 Ambassadors of Quan (7-3-1)
Previous Meeting:
Week 5 – Ambassadors of Quan 46, 2HD 20
2HD may be coming in as the higher seed, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks they are the favourites in this game. Ambassadors of Quan have been on a tear as of late, whereas 2HD finished off the regular season with a bad loss to the Kings. Add in the fact that 2HD suffered their worst loss of the year back in week 5 against AoQ by a whopping 26 points, and you see why most would side with AoQ in this game. However, you can never count the Dans out because when this team is a well-oiled machine and Joey Taylor spreads it around efficiently, this team is capable of beating any team in this division.
Matt Kirouac’s health will also be key in this game’s outcome. Having injured his ankle in the final game, we’ll see if Kirouac can suit up for his team, and even if he does, can he be the impact player the Dans need? At rush, his absence I think benefits the team because Danny McFee is a beast and is a better option to face a guy like Holowach. But on offense, Kirouac has proven to be very important to the Dans attack. If he doesn’t play, Marc-Antoine Viens will need to have his finest game of the season.
When AoQ gets into the redzone, they probably have the best redzone target in the division in giant Paul Lapierre. His height and good hands is matchup nightmare from anywhere on the field, but especially in the redzone where Alex Holowach seems to favour his big target.
Ambassadors of Quan are on a roll right now and I don’t see them falling victim to the Dans gimmicky offense. The game will be tighter than the last time around but ultimately, Danny D’Amour will pick off Joey Taylor and seal the Dans fate.
Prediction: Ambassadors of Quan 38, 2HD 26
#1 Grip N Rip (9-1) #4 The Incredibles (7-4)
Previous Meeting:
Week 10 – Grip N Rip 38, The Incredibles 32
The two teams that I thought were capable of beating Grip N Rip in Conference B are still alive: Ambassadors of Quan (who did beat them during the regular season), and yes you guessed it, The Incredibles. It seems that when Vinny Gualano plays against a Vince Nardone team, it’s never easy, and the offense more often than not has struggled some. Nardone claims to have the formula to rattle Gualano and get him off his game. It didn’t quite work a few weeks ago in the season finale when these two teams met, but with both teams having time to make proper adjustments, which team can gain the advantage?
Quarterback of the year Vinny Gualano will look stay away from defensive player of the year Aleksander Papich, he who picked him off in week 10. With Sean Avraam out for the rest of the playoffs, Gualano will look play his game and to get off quick short passes to Anthony Da Silva and Jordan Allard, his two main guys all year, but should also have the explosive J-D Chevalier to feed. The Incredibles’ rusher Alex Sepasi struggled to contain the shifty Gualano last time around sacking him once, but letting him run for 36 yards and two touchdowns. It’s been said again and again, but the key to beating GnR is a great rusher and a disciplined defense.
On the flip side, Greg Stern will need to be near perfect. Last game against 5-man Fun Boys roster, Stern tossed two picks and saw the game finish a little too close for comfort. He’ll need to step up and get the ball to his stud receivers while staying away from any potential game-changing interception. If I’m him, I test GnR with a deep shot to Papich or Peterson to open up the game and set the tone, whichever one Chevalier isn’t covering.
This is a game that has the potential to be a two-score GnR win, or a close Incredibles win. My head tells me that GnR will prevail, but I just get this weird feeling that Nardone will cook up something interesting for Gualano and that Papich will simply enter beast mode.
Prediction: The Incredibles 33, Grip N Rip 32
Division A
#1 Montreal’s Finest (8-2) #4 Rainmakers (5-6)
Previous Meeting (s):
Week 5 – Montreal’s Finest 34, Rainmakers 25
Week 10 – Montreal’s Finest 34, Rainmakers 28
After a terrible end to the season, the Rainmakers refused to go down without a fight taking a close one over the Monstars last week. Although they had just 42 yards combined, the Pilon twins were big in the red zone accounting for three of Ryan Kastner’s five touchdown passes. Against a big physical defense like the Finest, the twins may not have many chances for deep balls but should have opportunities for some YAC given their incredible agility. If I’m Ryan Kastner, I get the ball in their hands as often as possible and try to wear down the Finest D. The Rainmakers have only beaten the Finest once in their history (2012), but they’ve played them close this season while holding the Finest offense to their two lowest point outputs of the season (34). Their offense only mustered 25 and 28 points in those games however. Ryan Kastner needs to play mistake-free football and take the ball out of Kevin Wyeth’s hands. I’m just not sure that it will play out that way.
You can bet that Wyeth is still angry about not making the finals in the winter and will come out on fire in this playoff game. The Finest defense will come up with a play in the second half and will take control of this game for good.
Prediction: Montreal’s Finest 39, Rainmakers 26
#2 All Black Everything (6-3-1) vs. #3 Top Guns (6-4)
Previous Meeting (s):
Week 2 – Top Guns 39, All Black Everything 38
Week 7 – Top Guns 20, All Black Everything 18
So if you live under a rock or haven’t checked the Facebook group in the past week, then you might not be aware that All Black Everything will probably have to field a team of five players for this semi-final game. Now, they must face the team that beat them twice already this season with one less guy. It doesn’t bode well for ABE but I wouldn’t call it impossible. Just this past week, the Fun Boys gave The Incredibles a run for their money in division B. That being said, Top Guns have been playing much better ball in the latter half of the season and the last time these two squared off, held ABE to a season low 18 points. Needless to say, Marco Masciotra will need to be near perfect for ABE to have a chance and will need to frustrate Top Guns with quick, precise throws. If he elects to, Masciotra should be able to buy all the time he needs using his legs, creating room for his five receivers to get open if not right off the snap.
Although it would be a great story and would definitely add another gem to Masciotra’s resume, I just don’t see a team featuring Jamil Springer allow themselves to lose to a 5-man roster. I can see ABE keeping it close for a while but eventually, Top Guns will get a stop and put this game out of reach to clinch a finals appearance.
Prediction: Top Guns 38, All Black Everything 25
Best of luck to all teams for round 2 of the playoffs! If you want to reach me for any inquiries or to disagree with me, feel free to hit me up at [email protected] or DM me @JFloMusicMTL on Twitter.