Div C Wrap up the Quarter Finals and Semi-Final Sunday

Because they all occurred last week, congrats to Top Sauce for beating Blue Dreamers and Silent Ticklers for edging out EZW, as both teams put up 44 points in their Play-in Round victories. Unfortunately, their victories were short-lived as both teams were later eliminated, Top Sauce by Blessed and Silent Ticklers by The Infantry in the Quarter Final matchup. And then, the upset of the division, Les Gros Coqs beating BBALLERS 34-13.

At first glance you say, how did that blowout even happen, open the box score and see that Gianni Casati and Will Paquette did not play. Yes, HOWEVER, Will Trottier is nothing to laugh at, as QB. In his 1 game played at QB this season, he tore apart the Silent Ticklers, going 15/19, 216 yards and threw 5 TDs, no picks for a near-perfect 153.6 QBR. In that same game he even rushed twice for 25 yards and ran for another Touchdown and put up 55 points. Now, to be fair, Will Paquette, Jeremy Murphy and JD Chevalier all played in that regular season game, but his main target that game was Vincent Beauregard with 3 TDs and 83 yards, and he did play in the playoff game vs. LGC last week. So, to see that Trottier threw for only 103 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs, and for the score to suggest a blowout is still a surprising outcome and could perhaps still be labelled as an upset, but much less than initially expected. I’m not so surprised LGC putting up 34 points. Lefort did his thing on offense, spreading the ball beautifully amongst his receivers (which did not include Alex Bresse by the way) and doing what he does best with his legs, running for 44 yards and a rushing TD. In fact, he started the game with a bang, connecting with Boris Gagnier for a 35 yard TD on the 2nd play of the game. But it was the LGC defense that impressed me the most, picking off the BBALLER QBs 4 times alongside Thomas Lemay‘s 3 big sacks that disrupted Trottier and the BBALLER offense. Lemay’s 3 sacks, each of 10 yards would put the BBALLERS in a predicament on offense, forcing the deep-intermediate route that played into the strength of the LGC defense. Boris Gagnier and Etienne Maillé-Daviau made the BBALLERS pay and played a huge role in the LGC victory with their 2 INTs each. And what did Dom Lefort do? Officially, he put up 20 points off turnovers, but I believe the scorekeeper missed marking Alexis Ferrand‘s 31-yard reception as a touchdown, so the LGC offense actually put up 26 points off of turnovers. That is definitely not a recipe for success for the BBALLERS or any team, but the combination of the pressure put up by Lemay rushing, the smart LGC defensive play-calling, and being down multiple scores, all contributed to the BBALLERS to deviate from their playbook, leading to forced balls and deep shots that LGC anticipated.

So my intro just naturally lead into a game recap of LGC vs. BBALLERS, sometimes that just happens when you go down the rabbit hole of clicks in FPF, finding one interesting stat after another. Some of you might know what I mean.

Quarter Finals Playoffs

#3 South Harmon Institute of Technology vs. #6 Sheeeesh

This is actually an amazing Quarter-Final matchup that could have easily been a Semi-Final matchup. This goes to prove what I’ve been preaching all season: that Division C is loaded with talent and may have had the most parity between all playoff teams. Even though there were clear tiers in Top Teams, Middle teams and Bottom teams, if one of the Top teams have a mediocre day, they can be had by the Middle/Bottom teams.

A big deciding factor in this game is whether Andrew Langburt will get a negative Covid test result in time for 7pm. If he does not, then SHIT has, quite obviously, a massive advantage in this game and can (almost) book their ticket to the Semi-Final. But let’s analyze this game as if Langburt gets a negative result and does up end playing. It will be a lot of familiar faces squaring off in this one, as the Noah Groper‘s, Adam Rockman‘s and even Jakob Boidman‘s on SHIT are familiar with Langburt‘s and Sheeeesh’s offensive structure. And this is where this game becomes an interesting chess match. There’s clearly some intel those three mentioned previously can share with their SHIT teammates to assist their defensive game, whereas the question for Sheeeesh will be how much Langburt will modify his play-calling to give SHIT different looks they aren’t expecting, without changing the play concepts and routes too much so that the Sheeeesh WR’s are not running routes they haven’t run all season. This could work for them, but could backfire as well, as the timing may not be there on new routes. Not only would not having Langburt on offense greatly hurt Sheeeesh, but he does not get enough mentions about his defensive side of the game. He leads, as he so often does (see: W20 – Easy Jake Oven, R19 – Half-A-Stars) his team with 5 INTs this season and would be greatly missed on the defensive side of the ball with his play-calling and his disruptive on-field performance.

As for SHIT’s QB play, I’m sure the team would love to have Jake Applebaum, the team’s Quarterback to start the year, but they are happy with Jeff Rosenblatt‘s play since August 9th. In 5 games, he’s thrown for 1039 yards, 25 TDs and most importantly from the QB stats, just 3 INTs, all while posting a 4-1 record. And he’s built a great connection with Groper, Lepage and (Adam) Rockman. Check out their stats since Rosenblatt began throwing:

Groper – 33 / 362 / 10
Lepage – 19 / 255 / 8
Rockman – 22 / 234 / 2
Combined: 74 receptions, 851 yards, 20 TDs

That’s a lot of damage that Sheeeesh will need to contain if they want to come out victorious.

Oh… and I’m getting some news coming in… *cue the SportsCentre Breaking News music* da da da, da da da!

Yes, it’s official. Andrew Langburt will be suiting up for Sheeeesh as he got his negative Covid result. I even saw it pass through the Twitter universe from a reliable source, Adam Schefter.

Ok so back to the breakdown… so can Sheeeesh stop the 3-headed WR monster on SHIT? This is a defensive assignment that hangs on Langburt (while back playing, how close to 100% is he?) Ariel Librati and DonnDre Borden. CAN they stop SHIT’s trio? Maybe. Can they contain them and not let them break free for big yards and GAP plays (as Russell Wilson calls them – Game Altering Plays)? Yes, they can. But will they?

On the other side, can SHIT stop what appears to be a 4-pronged attack from Sheeeesh’s WR core in Benjamin, Librati, Bertoldi and Borden. I’m less convinced about the SHIT defense stopping the Sheeeesh offense than I am about the Sheeeesh defense stopping the SHIT offense, at least from a player personnel perspective at DB/Corner. In fact, a matchup that merits discussion in the SHIT defense is Groper rushing Langburt. Groper racked up 18 sacks on the season, tied for 2nd best in the division. This will be interesting to once again, see how adjustments are made in-game, if ever Groper disrupts Langburt and the Sheeeesh offense. I’m thinking of a particular Langburt favorite play with Librati, especially near the goal line that may be neutralized.

Alright well it’s prediction time. I’m thinking the offenses will have a field day, but give me Jeff Rosenblatt to score 1 more extra point convert than Sheeeesh. There’s nothing to hide here, since the stats are there to prove it, but Sheeeesh go for 2-pt converts more than any other team in FPF. They won’t convert as many in this game, and is their demise in this one.

Prediction: SHIT 33 – 32 Sheeeesh

Semi-Finals Matchup

So with SHIT predicted to win, let’s continue and preview the Semi-Final Matchup. We’ve got the #1 Blessed seed facing the #5 Gros Coqs and the #2 Infantry squaring off against the #3 SHIT.

#1 Blessed vs. #5 Les Gros Coqs

Okay, so if these 2 teams were to play 10 times, there’s only 1, maybeeee 2 games in which LGC would come out victorious. So there’s not much analysis to run by here, but for Les Gros Coqs to come out with the victory, their path will need to be to match every score that Blessed will put up and match the long drives that Stephen Harripersaud is known for. So they need to match each Blessed score, match the long drives, and CANNOT, I repeat CANNOT turn the ball over on offense. As good as last week’s victory was again the BBALLERS, Lefort did throw 1 INT. He cannot make that mistake again, even if LGC happen to find themselves up by 2 or 3 scores like they did against BBALLERS. Blessed is just too dangerous to give them an extra possession and will make you pay if you do. The other thing LGC will need is at least 1 stop on D. If they can stop the Blessed offense from scoring just once, especially if early in this game and the game is tied or within reach, they will have renewed life.

I know if your Blessed reading this, your wondering what about our time to be talked about?? Well honestly, the only thing Blessed has to be careful about it not looking past LGC and executing their plays like they have all season. The thing they do have to be careful though, will be Dom Lefort‘s running ability. Terry Babalis might have the most important defensive assignment on the defensive side for Blessed, limiting the time Lefort extends the play, because as good as the Blessed defense is, no one can cover a set of 5 receivers all day long.

In too many scenarios though, I see Blessed winning the important matchups over Les Gros Coqs.

Gimme Blessed to move onto the Div C final!

Prediction: Blessed 38– 26 Les Gros Coqs

#2 The Infantry vs. #3 South Harmon Institute of Technology

Now this matchup too has a favorite in The Infantry, but this underdog team in SHIT has the potential to make some noise and pull off the upset. They last played on August 23rd and The Infantry took it quite convincingly 38-20. From what the stats tell me what happened on the field, I see the smaller WR core of SHIT, which rely on their quick acceleration and top-end speed to make plays happen, run into bigger guys that can keep up with them athletically in The Infantry. For example, not many people can catch Noah Groper once he gets the ball in space. That’s right, not many, but there are some, and they happen to be on The Infantry in Rory Semerjian. And the reason I know that is because I end up saying to myself the same sentence : “not many people can catch Rory when he gets the ball in space”. And if he were to manage to get passed Rory, he then needs to pass Jaylan and his long legs that cover more ground, faster.

Where SHIT must take advantage of, is Noah Groper‘s speed and aggressive play rushing on the defensive side of the ball, where hopefully Groper‘s efforts are rewarded with a team interception, or a big sack that makes it 3rd and 18. One or 2 plays on defense can change the field position, and when you flip field possession on a drive in FPF, it means your close to scoring range. A couple of frustrating series like these from The Infantry, and SHIT is right in the game with about 5 minutes remaining. With SHIT in possession of the ball, they will have the experience on the team to know that their main objective is to let the clock run down, and then to score. Because whether or not you do score, you’ve milked the clock down so that now the opposing team only has 1 drive to execute for the win. Tilt the odds in your favor where you can, this is what FPF experience gets you. Another one is a good use of your timeouts. For example, Peeze has always said to take your 2 timeouts in the end of the 1st half if you need to, because you know you need them now, and you don’t know if you will need them later. And while I agree each time he says it, once you go through it in person, you immediately see its obvious, it just took someone pointing it out for you to realize it. This is what SHIT has in Jeff Rosenblatt, and the small details like this will help SHIT beat the favourite Infantry.

Otherwise, much like Blessed, as long as they execute their playbook, and their defense makes instinctive plays like they have all season, they are the favorite in this one for a reason.

I like what Corey has as weapons on offense and like I mentioned, the instinctive defensive awareness abilities that The Infantry has, so give me the Infantry to advance to the Div C final.

Prediction: The Infantry 38 – 26 SHIT

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Okay, so that’s my prediction for the final, Blessed vs. The Infantry! So lets play it out and see where it all lands for the finals.

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Cheers,

Iggy