D3 Stew: Sharpen Your Knives

D3 Stew: Sharpen Your Knives

While reading a fantastic article this week by Ben Falk of Cleaning the Glass – by far the best basketball blog on the interwebs right now – I came across the concept of Gestalt: a German word representing the principle of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts.

The idea speaks to how players fit with one another on rosters, mesh within the system and help give form to the overall team. It scratches the very core of team building in sports.

Team building is a dynamic, sensitive and complex process. For those of you who’ve gone through the hassle of assembling FPF rosters before, you’ll know that it’s never as easy as player A + Player B = championship. Personalities clash, similar talents override each other, and roster holes appear out of nowhere.

It takes a perfect mixture of finely attuned attributes to build a winner. Pure athleticism needs to be paired with consistency. Fiery passion needs to be balanced by cooler heads. A kaleidoscope of intermingling traits needs to be delicately cultivated in order to bring out the trust that will be so very important from here on out.  

We don’t need to look very far for proof of this concept at play. For those of you who were around, last winter’s div 3 was an excellent case study of the profound impact of Gestalt on team building:

Our winter 2017 champions, the Coyotes, were a rag-tag collection of friends, who individually would be far off from anyone’s top 10 list of talented players. Still, what they demonstrated above all else was remarkable consistency, and the ability to play off each other’s best strengths. There was clear synergy at play when they took the field together, as they flowed in unison like they were beating to the rhythm of their own drum. Still, take away their QB, and the majority of that roster is now playing together in div 4 this year, no longer capable of competing at this level.

Furthermore, take any individual player from that team and insert him in a div 3 roster. I’m sure he’ll do fine. Maybe even become a key depth piece of his new team. But he’ll never carry them to a 10-0 record and perfect season like he did with Coyotes. There was an undefinable greatness to that team when they played together. Everything just fit perfectly. They had Gestalt.

Now look at your team and consider if you have that perfect team fit.

This time of year the level of competition goes up several notches. Games are much tighter and the margin of error shrinks to a nearly non-existent level. Often times what elevates one team above the rest is not how much overall talent they have, but rather, when the game comes down to the wire, who in their heart of hearts knows that their teammate will do what he needs to do in the moment. That implicit trust. That perfect fit. That’s the Gestalt that this year’s winner will need to have.

Good luck to all in round 1.

  

 

Big Board

This wraps up the first season of Z-scores as an added tool to consolidate differing statistical measures into a unique value. Like I mentioned before, it’s not perfect, but it’s fun.

By looking at how a player performs against the field, it adds a nice wrinkle to the old FPF formula of simply measuring player A vs B. Its 2018 people, with the amount of sophisticated analytic tools readily available at our disposal, a quick eyeball test of overall stats and gut feeling is outdated. There’s layers of depth to the story waiting to be unearthed by digging a little deeper beneath the surface. Hopefully this is just the beginning.

Without further ado, here are your top 10 rankings through week 11:

PLAYER	GP	YDS AV	Y-Score	TD AV	T-Score	INT AV	I-Score	PV
Alex Holowach	10	240	2,20	5,3	1,57	1,1	-0,39	4,17
Alex Lever	6	221	1,33	5,3	1,62	0,8	-1,09	4,05
Mario Porreca	10	232	1,87	4,9	0,99	0,9	-0,92	3,78
Dylan Taylor	10	205	0,59	5,5	1,86	0,9	-0,92	3,37
Joey Taylor	10	195	0,16	4,8	0,84	0,7	-1,44	2,45
Phil Cutler	9	198	0,32	4,7	0,65	0,9	-0,95	1,91
Sean Avraam	8	203	0,54	4,1	-0,14	1,0	-0,66	1,06
Ryan Lelinowski	10	202	0,47	4,4	0,26	1,3	0,13	0,59
Myles Gibbon	10	183	-0,39	4,3	0,12	1,0	-0,66	0,38
Vince Nardone	10	179	-0,59	4,5	0,41	1,1	-0,39	0,21

 

 

Bigger Board

PLAYER	GP	REC AV	R-Score	YDS AV	Y-Score	TD AV	T-Score	PV
Alex Pilon	6	5,5	2,25	99	4,14	2,5	3,57	11,03
Robbi Dejean	9	4,6	1,49	66	2,19	2,0	2,60	6,88
Dave Chitayat	9	4,6	1,49	60	1,79	2,0	2,60	6,35
Marco Bertoldi	9	3,8	0,87	57	1,62	2,0	2,60	5,91
Theo Bekelis	10	5,7	2,41	59	1,74	1,7	2,01	5,81
Daniel Mancini	8	4,0	1,05	62	1,92	1,6	1,86	5,39
AJ Gomes	8	5,1	1,95	69	2,34	1,3	1,13	5,28
Adrien Kellman	10	2,8	0,08	53	1,36	1,9	2,40	5,04
James Crowe	7	4,0	1,05	67	2,22	1,3	1,20	4,91
Jonathan Garfinkle	10	5,9	2,57	53	1,38	1,4	1,42	4,60
Shaq Lattimore	10	4,2	1,21	55	1,51	1,5	1,62	4,57
Jordan Allard	10	4,3	1,29	54	1,42	1,5	1,62	4,48
Matthew Rupcic	10	4,7	1,61	41	0,61	1,8	2,21	4,29
Joel Malkin	10	4,5	1,45	66	2,13	1,0	0,64	4,18
Khalil Kerr	7	3,0	0,24	60	1,81	1,3	1,20	4,09
Danny D’Amour	10	4,0	1,05	49	1,10	1,3	1,23	3,46
James Nowakowski	7	4,0	1,05	37	0,42	1,6	1,76	3,25
Justin McLean	10	3,5	0,64	51	1,23	1,2	1,03	3,24
Jad Aridi	10	5,8	2,49	45	0,90	1,0	0,64	2,88
Zach Zwirn	10	3,9	0,97	45	0,88	1,2	1,03	2,87
Mathieu Gratton	9	3,9	0,96	43	0,79	1,2	1,08	2,81
Carmine Pollice	9	4,0	1,05	50	1,20	1,0	0,64	2,81
Jeremy Anderson	10	3,4	0,56	44	0,81	1,2	1,03	2,65
Guillaume Bourassa	8	3,4	0,54	40	0,57	1,3	1,13	2,46
Sebastien Simon	10	3,2	0,40	51	1,27	0,9	0,45	2,42

 

 

 

 

10 Things

In honor of the upcoming playoff round, I borrowed a segment from NBA cult hero Zach Lowe of ESPN.  Here’s 10 things I like and don’t like heading into the playoffs:

 

1. The Brotherhood’s Man defense

Anyone who’s played against them knows the feeling of lining up against their top 4 defenders. There’s nowhere to hide, no easy outs. You just have to load up, throw caution to the wind and heave it into the teeth of their defense…fingers crossed. For good offenses that rely on consistency, that’s not your desired game plan. And that’s the thing about this alignment and scheme, they force you off your game plan. They demand that you beat them with plans B & C.  Yielding an absurd 19.2 points per game on the season, they may mix in the 4-1 situationally, but when crunch time comes you can bet to have 4 lockdown caliber defenders squared up directly in front of your best receivers.

Everyone will be watching Jamal Gitten’s ankle this weekend, hoping for an Achilles heel. With Theo now hot at QB, If the month off granted Jamal enough time to heal, then the conference A playoffs may just be a formality, as Brotherhood look to finally finish what they started last winter. 

 

2. KGP’s sudden identity crisis

I spent so much time hyping them up as the dark horse of conference B this year that I didn’t even see the unraveling that was taking place over the past few weeks. The crushing loss to QB Movement was surprising, but forgivable due to a backup roster. Then they survived by the skin of their teeth against a struggling Maloudes team, but once again they had a roster comprising of mostly subs. The season concluded and suddenly they have only 6 eligible players for playoffs. Hardly the depth required to make a serious playoff run.

Even more concerning is the re-aggravated injury to star receiver James Crowe. Reports list him as questionable at best for this Saturday, meaning that KGP could attempt to make another infamous 5 man playoff run again. Last time they did that they pushed the Incredibles to the brink in an impressive showing, but it’s certainly not a positive habit.

We’ll see how this weekend plays out for the boys in yellow, but at this point they’re a far cry from the intimidating powerhouse they showed earlier in the year.

 

3. The Darksiders 2nd Half offense

It’s no secret that Jeremy Anderson and Travis Moses were a two-man show pulling the Darksiders offense for large stretches earlier in the year, but a late season hot streak from Jaylan Grandison has helped them diversify heading into the tournament. You can no longer put all your resources in locking down the right side of their O, as Grandison can hurt you in iso matchups. The Dig-Wheel combo from Travis and Jeremy remains lethal, as the spacing concepts used in this offense put extreme pressure on the deep-to-intermediate levels of the field. Fred Morisette was one of the hotter QBs over the second half of the season, averaging 5 TDs per game. A once cumbersome offense came to life with the improved play from one of the most polished signal callers in the division.

If they can summon some of that defensive juice from the first half of the year, while keeping Fred focused and dicing up defenses, they should have a puncher’s chance in conference A.

 

4. Laval Finest’s 3 week Vacation

The 450 filled up the season awards and all-star slate this year like the show was designed specifically for them. For the most part, their season has seemed like one long unbroken boulevard of green lights, and they’ve been zipping through like a Sunday stroll.

The past 3 weeks have been particularly easy breezy, stomping out a trio of non-competitive opponents. Their confidence may be at an all-time high heading into the playoffs, but that could also be the ultimate trap.

Some teams have been playing for their playoff lives for over a month now, sharpening their knives and getting accustomed to games where 1 mistake could be the end of the line. The playoffs don’t care what your regular season record was.

If Laval’s Finest comes into the playoffs soft, they might be able to fall back on their talent alone to get them past a first round matchup against an outmatched Dirty Dawgs opponent, but as of round two all bets are off.

I’m not saying that they definitely will fall victim to the soft schedule trap. They’re loaded with experienced, upper divisional FPF talent. They also have guys who’ve been battling each week in divisions 1 and 2, where the margin for error is much smaller than our humble division.

Still, any sports fan has seen his favorite team slip far too often from complacency. It’s the hardest trap to avoid because it’s one that we set for ourselves, in our own minds.

 

5. QB Movement’s ability to march

Out of the new teams in the division, they didn’t have the surprisingly successful record like Hometown Heroes, or the gutsy wins like LGM. But if there’s one thing that you can’t deny about QB Movement this year, it’s that their offense has consistently scored enough points to keep them relevant each week.

Mostly flying under the radar in conference B, they quietly poured in 30.9 points per game on offense, good for T-6th in the division. They run an explosive offense, with Myles Gibbon executing professional throws in the intermediate-to-deep levels of the field. Their best games come when they find balance between the deep ball and the short game. They have the depth to take the top off with WROY finalist Adrien Kellman, or move the chains with Yohan Miron or Sonny Elias.

With an aggressive man defense more conducive to creating turnovers than forcing incompletions, this is exactly the kind of team that could shock a high seed in the first round of the playoffs. You know that their offense will score, which puts just enough pressure on opposing QBs to start tensing up. We’ll see if an accomplished, big game player like Gibbons will elevate his game on the heightened stage this weekend. One thing’s for certain, Top Sauce won’t be getting a free pass to the second round against them.   

 

6. The Dans weltering flower

Far be it for me, a humble FPF staff writer, to find fault with the great 2HD defense, colloquially known as “The Flower”.  They allowed a ridiculously low 20.9 points per game, good for 3rd lowest in the division throughout the course of the regular season. They hadn’t allowed more than 20 points in a single game until week 7. They made arguably the single greatest statement win in week 8, with a devastating beat down on the then red hot Hometown Heroes.

Still, throughout all of that, they showed just enough cracks in the right light to suggest a weakness to a certain style of play. Purple Reign exploited them in week 7, touching them up for 45 points. More recently, a severely depleted Dad Bods did the same in week 11, with Sean Avraam coasting to a near perfect game against them.

They remain one of the top 3 powerhouses in the division, without debate. Still, of the top 3, they also remain the most matchup prone. There’s a trio of teams in conference A that feel like they have the right formula to exploit their defense in these playoffs. Whether or not 2HD can pull some new tricks from up their sleeve will be an intriguing storyline to follow in a highly competitive conference A.

 

7. ODB’s Grind

One of the great surprises out of div 3 this season. Week after week, they would give trouble to the so called “good” teams in the division. Each time, the reports out of the opposing camps would be similar: Aggressive defense…Div 2 caliber…They hold a lot…Tight in red zone…Caught us off guard…

Any way you want to look at it, what it all amounts too is an underrated dark horse in conference A. I don’t need to tell you that they’re a scrappy, savvy and proud bunch of FPF legends slumming it in the mid divisions. Everybody can recognize the names. Still, we pass them over on a weekly basis. Attributing their success to some kind of fluky coincidence, rather than giving them the respect they deserve.

At this point, there’s no doubt that they prefer it that way. So we won’t start now. Step into the ring with them, they shouldn’t present much of a challenge…They shouldn’t last 12 rounds…they shouldn’t keep up with you for long….They shouldn’t…

 

8. The Walking Dead: Purple Reign edition

The enigma of Purple Reign has been baffling me all season. At the beginning of the season they looked flat defensively, like a doormat waiting to be scored on. Then, with their playoff hopes in jeopardy, they pulled up their bootstraps and played 4 weeks of incredible, hardnosed, defensive minded football, propelling them all the way to a game out of 2nd place in the conference.

Finally, a week before playoffs with a chance to gain a favorable seating, they fell on their faces again against Brotherhood. None of the emotion, pressure or pride that they played with in the previous matchups. They looked like purple zombies parading around the field.

The question now falls on whether or not they can summon that extra level of defensive presence when they desire. All good players or teams can attain an elite level of play for stretches throughout the year, but the true championship contenders find balance and can turn it on in the clutch. With a tough matchup on deck against the always hungry Hometown Heroes, Purple Reign won’t have the luxury of waiting any more to find out about themselves. They’re jumping right into the deep end in conference A.

 

9. Top Sauce’s Grit

You have to hand it to them this winter, as I don’t think there was another team that we so eagerly watched each week, with the expectation that they would fall off at some point.

First, we questioned their vaunted defense, claiming that they hadn’t faced stiff enough opponents at the onset of the season to declare them elite. They finally slipped against Laval’s Finest in week 5. That’s it for them right? Back to mediocre? No way. They bounced right back and finished strong, yielding an incredible 17 points per game on the season, good for 2nd in the division.

Next, we questioned their offense once Vince Nardone went down with injury. Surely he was looking at an extended absence, and Top Sauce would be left in a decrepit state, scrambling for bottom barrel backups…Right? Not so. Vince heroically returned the very next week, beating everyone’s best guesses of a return date.

But still, he looked hobbled and they barely managed a score against KGP. That definitely spelled the end of Top Sauce’s run. We started to pen their obituaries. A fine season. They outplayed the expectations. No shame in succumbing to injuries…Wrong again!

Top Sauce came out fierce in week 11 and delivered the type of commanding beat down on DTM that passes a clear message to all other teams in the division. They’re going for the championship.

As much as they’ve proved us wrong for doubting them this season. The stigma will never leave them. Now we turn our attention to the playoffs, where they’ve suffered a pair of first round exits in the past two years.

The monkey is on their back, and it now weighs more than it used to.

The pundits will never stop doubting them. It’ll be up to them to take away our choice.  

  

10. Drop the Mic’s inconsistency

 The portrait of a talented but volatile team. One week they can throw down with the best in the division, pouring in points at will on offense and coming up with the gritty stops on defense. The next week they could show up with a patch work roster, and stumble around for half the game searching for their footing. They truly are a wildcard team in conference B, as much of a mystery to themselves as to their opponents.

Still, they have that good wildcard juice. The randomness of their explosions this season makes them unpredictable, and difficult to game plan against. If you polled the top seeded teams in conference B on who they would most want to avoid in the second round, I’m confident the answer would come out unanimous.

With the top QB-WR pairing in the division they’re primed to wreck some havoc in this winter’s playoff bracket. Outside of injury, there’s no excuses for missing games this time of year. They should have their full roster intact at last and make an honest run for Brossard on April 8th.

 

 

Predictions

 

Hometown Heroes                          Purple Reign

A highly anticipated rematch of the week 9 showdown between these two tough conference A teams. Last time they squared it was a tale of two halves, with defenses reigning supreme (pun intended).

I expect a much cleaner game offensively this time around, as both QBs have a better understanding of what awaits them. There’s an entertaining clash of styles at play, with the Heroes fiery attitude against Purple Reign’s cool and collected approach. Fire vs Water.

I won’t predict this game since it’s by own, but I thoroughly expect both teams to beat up on each other down to the final whistle.

 

Laval’s Finest                                   Dirty Dawgs

All that hoopla above about Laval’s Finest potentially coming out flat, and yet it shouldn’t be an issue this week.

Dirty Dawgs made a remarkable push over the final month of the season to turn their season around and secure the final playoff spot. Ryan Lewlinowski is arguably the single most impactful player in the division. The way he dances around and creates for this Dawgs team is truly a treat to watch. Dave Chitayat is one of the premier offensive weapons in the entire division.

Still, Laval is just way too deep in the talent pool for their opponent to match up with. As much as I appreciate their playoff push, the Dawgs are a bit in over their heads in this one. Expect a close game early, but the gap should grow throughout the game as Laval gears up for their second round matchup.

Score: 40-26 Laval’s Finest

 

LGM                                                   Maloudes

Similar to the point about Laval being complacent, LGM is coming off an easy win against a noncompetitive JYD team in week 11. Hopefully it doesn’t get to their heads in this one and cause them to take unnecessary risks. Because Maloudes are a team that can make them pay.

Although it’s true that Maloudes backed into the playoffs somewhat, not looking particularly sharp over the final 3 weeks, they still have the implicit athleticism and talent to turn it on in an instant. Anthony Beauchamp-Frezza’s mobility might give the LGM rusher some fits. He’ll need to play some hero ball in this one because LGM know how to game plan and can adapt on the fly.

I wouldn’t be surprised in Maloudes hit LGM first in this game. But LGM play with the experience and poise of their QB, and will quickly adapt and give themselves the upper hand.

Score: 34 – 30 LGM

 

Top Sauce                                         QB Movement

There’s a part of me that wants to pick QB Movement in the upset in this game. I like their ability to take deep stabs on offense, they can cover a lot of ground fast. I also think that their man defense has the chance to cause some fits for Top Sauce’s offense.

Still, it’s precisely because I have this feeling that I will pick Top Sauce to hold court. Each time I want to pick against Top sauce they have proven me wrong. Their offense is finely tuned, and shouldn’t have any problems exploiting the mismatches that present themselves on the field.

On defense, Top Sauce is led by arguably the greatest tactician in FPF. Vince knows his opponent’s strengths and will concoct a gameplan specifically suited to taking away Myles’ plan A. I doubt whether the relatively green QB Movement team will have the depth to go win this one with their plan B and C.

Score: 38-33 Top Sauce

 

KGP                                                     Drop the Mic

I really wish that KGP has their full lineup for this one and can make an honest run in this winter’s playoffs. If that was the case, this would arguably be the best matchup in the 1st round.

I won’t speculate too much about what-ifs. Should KGP be 5 guys they simply cannot beat a full team with this much on the line. Even if they’re 6, I’ll stick with what should assumedly be a full and healthy DTM roster to pull off the victory.  

Mario vs Phil should be one of the top QB listings this week, if both of these teams have enough players to compete. I hope from a spectator’s point of view that we get to see that showdown in full force. Fingers crossed.

Score: 34-24 DTM

 

2HD                                                    ODBs

This should be a juicy matchup if ODBs bring out their all-dressed squad. Common opinion on Joey Taylor is that his unique skill set is better suited picking apart zones than tight, aggressive man defenses. Joey has always been one to exceed our expectations, so this matchup shouldn’t be any different.

Still, ODB has a way of getting in your face and making you uncomfortable. They dare QBs to throw tight passes into small windows. The opening that appeared 1 second ago might not be there if you take too much time.

I still like the 2HD defense in this one. They play together well and can confuse opposing QBs with a variety of shoots and disguised coverages. Brandon Aylward is also an extremely underrated rusher, and should be able to stick on Antonio Lanni’s hip if he tries to scramble.

I’d like to see ODB’s make 2HD sweat a bit in this one. Hopefully we’ll have an entertaining game deep into the second half.

Score: 30-25 2HD

 

Darksiders                                         Dad Bods

This game was the most difficult to predict. Maybe it would not have been so hard if Dad Bods had their full lineup. However, injuries and suspensions have greatly hindered the once powerful conference A franchise.

In order to steal this one for his team, Sean Avraam will need to be perfect. He has the ability to tear up an opposing zone defense like few others in the division. When he’s on, he can manipulate opponents with his expert play calling and array of look offs and pump fakes. There’s precedent for this upset too. As an outmatched Dad Bods just took apart full powered 2HD team in week 11. I expect a similar outing from the heart and soul of the Bods, as he uses everything at his disposal to push his boys to the second round and allow them to heal.

On the Darksiders side, we know what to expect from Fred Morissette. He runs 2-3 plays on repeat each game, but he runs them with the precision and timing of a pro. Expect a heavy dose of the wheel-dig combo from Jeremy and Travis on the right side, as Darksiders will look to run their gameplan and wait for Dad Bods to make the critical mistake.

Similar to Top Sauce, I’ve been wrong when picking against Darksiders on so many occasions this year that I’m jaded in picking against them. I’ll take Darksiders in the narrowest of wins, but I fully expect this one to go down to the final play.

Score: 33-32 Darksiders

 

Brotherhood                                    Lightweight

The odds were stacked against Lightweight in this one from the very beginning. This was never a favorable matchup for the 8th seed, as Simon’s gunslinging style and lofty deep balls would have found difficulty against Brotherhood’s aggressive zone-man coverage. The windows are simply too tight against Brotherhood, and Simon would have had to have the best game of his life just to keep his team relevant. Not even to mention how Lightweight would have attempted to slow down Theo…

But now, with news that Lightweight will be without two of their top receivers, and will play 6 men all game…the upset is all but impossible. Hopefully they can last a few rounds with brotherhood in this one, and keep it interesting going into the half.    

Score: 48-13 Brotherhood

 

 

 

That’s it for this week! Week 11 of FPF is officially in the books, and the 1st round of the playoffs is set to start up soon. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can reach out to me @alexholowach1 on Twitter, or hit me up on Facebook. Make sure to check back next week to find out how round 1 shook out.