D3 Stew: High Stakes

D3 Stew: High Stakes

With playoffs around the corner we’re now entrenched in the final throes of the regular season. For some, the balance of their season remains tenuously grasped. For others, it’s now a matter of semantics, with final seeding left to be negotiated.

Whatever your current vantage point may be, the hope of the second season looms on the horizon for 16 teams. To our vanquished friends – Looney Goonz and JYD – we say thank you for your competition. For the remaining teams with finals aspirations, everything gets a bit colder this time of year. Keep your wits about you at all times, for a momentary slip could mean an excruciatingly longer offseason.

With some critical games taking place tonight and carrying into week 11, take a look below to get caught up on all the most relevant information from the division.

Good luck to all, unless I’m playing against you of course.

 

 

Big Board

Z-score is the number of standard deviations from the mean a data point sits at. For our purposes, the Z-Score will measure how far a player ranks either above or below the divisional average at your position. The higher the Z-Score, the better you’ve ranked in comparison to your peers. These were introduced here: they aren’t perfect, but they’re fun.

For QBs, I attributed equal weight to each of the measurable statistical categories. That means Yards, TDs and INTs all have an equal impact on the final rating. The final player value (PV) is achieved by summing all the individual scores for each category.

Without further ado, here are your top 10 rankings at QB through week 9:

PLAYER	GP	YDS AV	Y-Score	TD AV	T-Score	INT AV	I-Score	PV
Alex Holowach	8	243	2,09	5,4	1,56	1,1	0,55	4,20
Mario Porreca	8	236	1,80	5,1	1,24	1,0	0,87	3,91
Phil Cutler	7	211	0,86	5,0	1,08	0,7	1,59	3,53
Joey Taylor	8	203	0,52	5,3	1,40	0,8	1,50	3,42
Dylan Taylor	9	204	0,55	5,4	1,64	0,9	1,15	3,35
Sean Avraam	6	202	0,49	4,2	0,03	1,3	0,03	0,54
Ryan Lelinowski	9	197	0,30	4,3	0,24	1,4	-0,25	0,28
Myles Gibbon	8	179	-0,41	4,3	0,13	1,1	0,55	0,27
Frédéric Morissette	9	181	-0,34	3,9	-0,32	1,2	0,31	-0,35
Neil Etinson	8	207	0,68	3,9	-0,34	1,8	-1,03	-0,69

 

Some Observations:

The top 3 all took hits in value this week following below average games, making it a legitimate sprint to the finish line between the top 5…The Taylors – Joey and Dylan – benefitted the most for the second consecutive week, putting up high TD totals and keeping the INT slate clean… Ryan Lelinowski knows how to rise to the occasion, delivering a strong performance in a clutch upset over Maloudes this week, keeping Dirty Dawgs in playoff contention…Myles Gibbon teed off on JYD’s patchy defense, proving once again that he can throw down with the best of them on any given week…Welcome to the top 10 Frédéric Morissette!

 

Bigger Board

For WRs, I used a weighted average assigning Yards and TDs 4X as much value as REC in the final player value (PV).

Here are your week 9 rankings for the top 25 WRs:

PLAYER	GP	REC AV	R-Score	YDS AV	Y-Score	TD AV	T-Score	PV
Alex Pilon	5	5,6	2,29	97	3,93	2,6	3,59	10,78
Marco Bertoldi	8	4,1	1,11	62	1,82	2,1	2,70	6,40
Daniel Mancini	7	4,3	1,24	69	2,25	1,9	2,20	6,34
Dave Chitayat	8	4,6	1,51	62	1,82	2,0	2,47	6,23
Matthew Rupcic	8	5,5	2,21	48	1,04	2,1	2,70	5,73
Robbi Dejean	7	4,7	1,58	64	1,97	1,6	1,67	5,37
Theo Bekelis	9	5,4	2,16	58	1,62	1,7	1,84	5,33
AJ Gomes	7	5,0	1,81	69	2,25	1,3	1,13	5,12
Joel Malkin	8	5,0	1,81	73	2,49	1,1	0,83	5,03
James Crowe	7	4,0	1,01	67	2,15	1,3	1,13	4,72
Jonathan Garfinkle	8	5,8	2,41	54	1,35	1,5	1,53	4,64
Shaq Lattimore	8	4,3	1,21	58	1,64	1,5	1,53	4,63
Adrien Kellman	8	2,8	0,01	53	1,34	1,8	2,00	4,46
Jordan Allard	8	3,8	0,81	52	1,24	1,5	1,53	3,96
Danny D’Amour	8	4,1	1,11	45	0,87	1,5	1,53	3,57
Khalil Kerr	5	2,6	-0,11	54	1,39	1,2	0,97	3,11
Zach Zwirn	9	4,0	1,01	45	0,83	1,3	1,22	3,07
Mathieu Gratton	8	3,8	0,81	43	0,69	1,3	1,07	2,62
Justin Cerantola	8	4,0	1,01	49	1,09	1,0	0,60	2,58
Justin McLean	9	3,4	0,57	47	0,98	1,1	0,81	2,56
Guillaume Bourassa	7	3,4	0,55	42	0,65	1,3	1,13	2,56
Ryan Aridi	9	3,9	0,92	49	1,07	1,0	0,60	2,54
Matt Kirouac	5	4,0	1,01	53	1,32	0,8	0,22	2,39
Jeremy Anderson	9	3,4	0,57	44	0,76	1,1	0,81	2,28
Travis Moses	9	3,7	0,74	50	1,15	0,8	0,18	2,02

 

Some Observations:

Robbi Dejean took a hit in the standings this week, finally feeling the repercussions of the slew of backups QBs throwing for LGM recently. Fortunately he should regain his footing with Lever back this week…Matthew Rupcic blew the roof off Hebert on Tuesday with a 5 TD game, the first of the year in div 3. He was the major mover this week, thrusting himself all the way up to 5th from 10th last week…My preseason predication for WROY, Dave Chitayat, had another strong outing, and now sits neck and neck for the overall WR stats league…Joel Malkin has finally eclipsed the top 10 after a big game against Heroes. He’s the overall yards leader after 9 weeks… Jonathan Garfinkle continued his stellar season for KGP with another strong outing. He forms a potent 1-2 punch with James Crowe…With no Marco Bertoldi this week, Guillaume Bourassa went off and carried the Bearskins offense in a close loss…Welcome to the top 25 Matt Kirouac! His addition was the turning point in ODBs season.

 

Playoff Scenarios

As I say every year, please use this as just a primer for playoff scenarios. All teams remain entirely responsible for knowing their own requirements for playoff seeding and ranking.

Enjoy responsibly!

Conference A

A	EQUIPE	GP	W	L	T	PF	PA	PTS	+/-	DIV
1	2HD	9	7	2	0	315	177	14	138	[3-1-0]
2	Darksiders	10	6	4	0	265	276	12	-11	[4-0-0]
3	Hometown Heroes	9	6	3	0	297	278	12	19	[2-2-0]
4	The BrotherHood	8	6	2	0	200	141	12	59	[3-1-0]
5	Purple Reign	8	4	3	1	285	264	9	21	[1-2-1]
6	ODB’s	9	4	5	0	189	261	8	-72	[0-4-0]
7	Dad Bods	8	4	4	0	184	189	8	-5	[3-1-0]
8	Lightweight	9	3	5	1	198	244	7	-46	[0-3-1]
9	Recipe 4 Disaster	9	3	6	0	198	199	6	-1	[2-2-0]
10	Looney Goonz	9	1	8	0	211	315	2	-104	[1-3-0]

 

Some Observations:

• Remember that both sub-conference winners immediately assume 1st and 2nd place in the conference.
• If 2HD win their final game and Brotherhood win out against Dad Bods and Purple Reign, Brotherhood will assume 1st overall position due to H2H.
• Should a 3-way tie emerge between 2HD, Brotherhood and Hometown Heroes at 7-3, it will come down to PA between 2HD and Brotherhood thanks to superior DIV Records. Hometown Heroes would finish 4th in the conference.
• If Purple Reign win out their final two games against R4D and Brotherhood, they would surpass Darksiders in their sub-conference and finish second overall in the conference.
• With 1 game left ODBs can’t finish higher than 5th.
• Should Purple Reign lose a game and Dad Bods win their remaining 2, they will still finish second behind Darksiders in the sub-conference due to H2H.
• With 1 game left Lightweight can’t finish higher than 6th.
• R4D has a must win tonight against Purple Reign. They could finish as high as 7th if they win and ODB + Lightweight lose their final game.

 

Conference B

B	EQUIPE	GP	W	L	T	PF	PA	PTS	+/-	DIV
1	Laval’s Finest	9	8	1	0	321	215	16	106	[4-0-0]
2	Top Sauce	9	6	3	0	264	150	12	114	[3-1-0]
3	LGM	9	5	3	1	275	278	11	-3	[3-1-0]
4	KGP	9	5	4	0	283	240	10	43	[3-1-0]
5	Les Maloudes	9	4	5	0	225	244	8	-19	[2-2-0]
6	The QB Movement	9	4	5	0	283	269	8	14	[1-3-0]
7	Drop The Mic	8	3	3	2	244	255	8	-11	[1-2-1]
8	Dirty Dawgs	10	3	7	0	299	377	6	-78	[1-3-0]
9	BearSkins	9	3	6	0	222	281	6	-59	[1-3-0]
10	Junkyard Dogs	9	1	7	1	231	336	3	-105	[0-3-1]

 

Some Observations:

• Laval’s Finest clinched the conference. A win would secure them home field advantage in the finals against anyone.
• LGM can take the sub-conference and finish as high as second win a win + a Top Sauce loss.
• KGP cannot finish higher than 3rd. They own the H2H over Top Sauce.
• DTM could finish as high as 3rd with a double win coupled with an LGM and KGP loss.
• Interesting scenario if Maloudes beat KGP next week, QB Movement win their final game and DTM split 1 of 2 wins, all teams would finish with 10 points. In that case the rankings would be as follows: KGP → Maloudes → DTM → QB Movement thanks to DIV Record.
• The Dirty Dawgs are temporarily holding the 8th and final playoff spot. A win or tie from Bearskins tonight will knock them out. Skins need a win or tie to keep their season going.

 

 

Power Rankings:

 

1. Laval’s Finest (8-1): Cruising along on autopilot the last 2 weeks. Hopefully a full Bearskins team will give them a tune-up this week before a one week layoff leading into playoffs.
2. Brotherhood (6-2): A lot of roster variance each week but they continue to take care of business. Will be interesting to see how they handle two experienced teams in Dad Bods and Purple Reign in the final two weeks.
3. 2HD (6-2): the 2HD Blitzkrieg rolled over Lightweight this week even more forcefully than anticipated. Their defense is allowing a ridiculous 13.6 points per game in their 6 wins this year. They continue to shut teams down.
4. Top Sauce (6-3): Vince Nardone made a heroic effort to get back on the field only a week after his knee injury. It didn’t pay off. Top Sauce is quickly losing momentum down the stretch. They have a good challenge remaining this week against DTM. They would e wise to take advantage of it as it’ll be their last game for the next 2 weeks.
5. Hometown Heroes (5-3)↑1: Looked to be riding a comfortable bounce back win against Purple Reign this week until a second half collapse delivered their second consecutive loss. They’ve revealed some cracks in recent weeks, but nothing that they can’t fix before playoffs. They have a good opportunity to get right this week against Darksiders.
6. KGP (5-3)↑2: Caught Top Sauce at a moment of weakness and took advantage. They’re starting to creep into the top 5 rankings just in time for playoffs. When their roster is all dressed they’re one of the most talented teams in the division top to bottom.

7. Darksiders (6-3)↓2: The 4 game winning streak came to an end this week against ODBs. Was it the end of a hot streak for an otherwise mediocre team? Or a minor bump in the road for a contender? How they respond this week against an angry Hometown Heroes will go a long way in revealing the answer.
8. Purple Reign (4-3-1)↑1: The thermostat keeps rising after 3 straight wins. The second half comeback against Heroes demonstrated their grit and resiliency. Every team with championship aspirations knows it’s not how you start but how you finish, and they’ve been closing games off strong since February.   

9. LGM (4-3-1)↓2: Took it right on the nose last week with a backup QB against Laval’s Finest. They’re getting their sheriff back this week and have two juicy matchups ahead to build momentum with leading into the playoffs.
10. DTM (3-3-2): They had some quality subs filling in for their missing stars this week, but you could tell the chemistry was just off. What matters most is that they pulled off the much needed win to create a little breathing room in the playoff bracket. They have an interesting matchup this week against a hurting Top Sauce team. 

 

 

 

 The Jamie Bowl

After a grueling, multi-week battle of wits, the final showdown of the Jamie Bowl inaugural season came down to a clash between two wily veterans of the FPF circuit, Commish Has Fallen (Sean Avraam) vs Bullet Club (Doug McKernon).

Bullet Club Doug was swinging the heavy bat earlier in the season. He lived by the philosophy that swinging for the fence each time at bat was the only way to go. Jumping out to an early lead in the standings, he began looking too intimidating to pitch to over the plate. However, once the first round of superstars were taken off the board, we learned that Bullet Club had trouble hitting the curve. He started to fade down the stretch and backed into the playoffs with the final spot. He rebounded slightly in the semi-finals, but his flop in the finals was indicative of the difficulty of the Jamie Bowl challenge. Still, an overall successful first season for the 2018 runner up.

Sean came out of the gates strong in week 1, and week-to-week produced the most consistently awesome arrangements of div 3 rosters. He was like an expert florist, plucking seemingly everyday players off waivers and juxtaposing them in such a way as to create ingenious and sometimes stunning lineups. Most impressive was his ability to elevate his game towards the end of the season. When most of his competitors were running out of stamina, having selected the top players earlier in the year and clutching at straws down the stretch, Sean demonstrated his deep appreciation for the div 3 talent pool. He was especially locked in during the playoffs, outscoring everyone in both weeks and averaging over a mind boggling 150 points per game.

Commish has Fallen proved to have the attributes worthy of a Jamie Bowl champion. He took down the field and stands alone as the 2018 champion. For his efforts he’s earned a special St. Patty’s Jameson edition of Ireland’s finest swill.

If anyone is interested in throwing their hat in the ring and challenging Sean in this spring’s edition of the Jamie Bowl, shoot me a line and we’ll hook it up.

To the victor goes the spoils! Congrats Sean Avraam, bringing more fame to your name.

Take a look below to see how the final matchups shook out:

 

Finals

	Commish has Fallen		Bullet Club
QB	Myles Gibbon	27,88	Sean Avraam	17,76
WR	Adrien Kellmen	23,6	Dave Chitayat	22,8
WR	James Crowe	5,1	Francois Deslauriers	1,7
2WAY	Matt Rupcic	47,5	Rich Humes	3
2WAY	Khalil Kerr	16	Chris Milard	10,3
DEF	Brotherhood	31	KGP	27,5
		151,08		83,06

 

 

Third Place Game

*Our semi-finalist victims were both so sure that their loss was a one-time fluke that they decided to side-bet their skills on a bottle of their choosing.

Congrats to Drop Kick Terry Tam on claiming the bronze medal game, and more importantly temporarily shutting up the cocky Panda Jeremy Anderson.

Pay up Panda! Drop Kick has a thirst that only your prize can scratch.

	Dropkick Terries		Panda Panda!
QB	Joey Taylor	36	Theo Ojeaha	22,52
WR	Jaylan Grandison	26,9	Dave Chitayat	22,8
WR	Anthony Lazarra	9,4	Justin McLean	3,2
2WAY	Shaq Lattimore	27,4	Jeremy Anderson	11,8
2WAY	Rich Humes	3	Robbi Dejean	9,3
DEF	Top Sauce	14	2HD	26,5
		116,7		96,12

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Awards

 

QB:

Joey Taylor – 2HD:

19/26 – 200 yards – 7 TD/0 INT – 134.6 QBR

He dissembled Lightweight with ease this week, spreading them out and picking them apart with his patent timing based offense. There’s been no hotter QB in the division over the past month, with an average QB rating of 126.18 over the last 5 games. He’ll look to keep the hot streak going this week against a vulnerable Looney Goonz defense.

 

WR:

Matt Rupcic – 2HD:

8 catches – 60 yards – 5 TDs

He ate the most in the smorgasbord offensive explosion against Lightweight. 5 TDs is a special night. The highest single game TD count so far this year in div 3. Teaming up with Joey a few years back was the best move for Rupcic’s flag career, as it allowed him to flourish as an offensive star. The three-headed receiving monster for 2HD gets scarier every week.

 

DEF:

Francois Deslauriers – Purple Reign:

4 TKL – 3 INT

He was on this list just two weeks ago for an impressive 2WAY performance. Now, the defensive captain of Purple Reign is back after a heroic defensive effort leading his team to a second half comeback. Earlier this season the Purple Reign defense looked lifeless, with no bite. His vision has finally broken through and they’ve become a force to be reckoned with in recent weeks.   

 

2WAY:

Rod Mashtoub – Laval’s Finest:

4 catches – 75 yards – 1 TD

6 TK – 2 INT – 2 PD – 1 TD

His pick 6 to start the game was an omen of a monster game to come. He’s an upper division star in FPF and usually takes a back seat in this diversified offense. But on this night he was the main feature on both sides of the ball. He carried the 450 to their last finals appearance as QB, and this time he looks to take them back to the main stage and finish the deal as their 2WAY star.

 

 

Predictions

 

KGP                                                     QB Movement

KGP were missing a couple of star players on the night, but you can’t help being impressed with the multi-score trouncing put on them by a suddenly red hot QB Movement team. Myles Gibbon is finding his groove just in time for playoffs, riding his main dogs in Kellman and Gerville to back-to-back 5 TD games. More impressively, their defense is starting to make stops, coming up with 2 INTs against a normally mistake-free Cutler at QB.

LGM                                                   Dirty Dawgs

Welcome back Alex Lever! No one is happier than Lethal Weapon 25 Robbi Dejean, who left burn marks on field 3 at Lachine on his way to 82 yards and 4 TDs. This was an incredible back-and-forth game, and Dirty Dawgs simply wouldn’t back down with their playoff hopes on the line. Dave Chitayat vs Dejean was a matchup worth the price of admission, as the two star players went at each other all game. In the end, a Lever led LGM were just too much for the Dawgs defense, who’ll now need to cross their fingers and wait to see if their season will continue.

Looney Goonz                                  2HD

The tough-nosed Looney Goonz defense stood firmly in the path of the red hot 2HD offense and didn’t get run over. They didn’t stop the gravy train but they were able to slow in down enough to make the game surprisingly interesting. It’s a definite positive towards the end of a long season for the Goonz that didn’t go as planned. They should look to build on their solid core and return in spring season for another go at it.  

JYD                                                      Maloudes

I was hoping to see one last fiery push by JYD before they pack it in for winter and begin getting their roster ready for spring, and they delivered. Backed by a huge offensive performance by Carmine Pollice (7 catches, 101 yards and 4 TDs), they took Maloudes to the brink. Although the Maloudes playoff trip is now secured, they can’t be feeling too confident after narrowly avoiding a double loss against the 2 non-playoff teams in conference B. They’ll have an excellent playoff tune-up game next week against a poised KGP team.

Darksiders                                         Hometown Heroes

Erminio Iadeluca went back to basics last night and kept the turnover sheet clean. The proof is in the pudding, when he manages the game he gives his team a great chance to win, as Heroes snapped out of their 2 game funk with a 41-31 victory over Darksiders. The ball was spread effectively, with 4 different Heroes receivers catching at least 1 touchdown pass. When the Heroes play this style of efficient, confident offense and aggressive defense they become one of the toughest teams in the division. The Darksiders are now slinking into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak.

Lightweight                                      ODBs

Simon the Sheriff was back last night, with his badge and ten gallon hat in tow. With his team’s playoffs hopes on the line he was kicking ass and taking names, carving up the ODB defense for 181 yards and 5 TDs. Most impressive was how he kept the turnover sheet clean. For the first time in several weeks he was able to break through cleanly with his top weapon Cory Kennedy. If these two stay in sync they could make things interesting as a lower seed in the first round.  

Top Sauce                                         DTM

I need to see some fight from them before I can get back on Top Sauce bandwagon. The major question mark here will be DTM’s roster, as they brought a backup team last game mid-week at Hebert. If they roll out the B team again this week I think Top Sauce can stall their offense. Ideally, we’ll see two full-staffed power houses of conference B throwing down until the very end.

Brotherhood                                    Dad Bods

Both teams have been facing significant roster uncertainties in recent weeks. Of the two, I’m more concerned about the Dad Bods tonight. They’re a team that relies on excellent depth to maximize their potential. Brotherhood is usually a bit top heavy, so as long as a couple of their big names are present they should be able to challenge anyone in the division. Sean Avraam will be coming in straight off major flight delays from the US. It doesn’t matter, not even air traffic control can hold the Dad Bod from this matchup two years in the making. It should be an entertaining game.  

R4D                                                     Purple Reign

Laval’s Finest                                   Bearskins

We forget, but the Bearksins were once 3-1 at some point this season. 5 straight losses later and they’re now on the outside of the playoff bracket looking in. This is their last chance. They’ll need to lay it all on the line and summon some of the scrappy fight of past years. I think they’ll give Laval a run for their money, but ultimately this will go down as an unfortunate wasted season for the Skins. I DO hope they prove me wrong.  

 

That’s it for this week! Week 9 of FPF is officially in the books, and week 10 is set to start up soon. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can reach out to me @alexholowach1 on Twitter, or hit me up on Facebook. Make sure to check back next week to find out how week 10 shook out