Categories: Division 5ADivision 5BWinter

Calculating the Playoffs Odds, Improved QB play and a Top-10 Sack Record at Play

First of all, welcome back. Second of all, you’re welcome. As you’ve surely seen, it’s now finally MUCH easier to see who’s in and out of the playoffs, as seen in the Overall Standings tab in both 5A and 5B, without the Divisional groups separating teams. With the playoff picture much clearer, let’s take a look at who’s clinched a ticket the big dance.

Division 5B Clinched Playoff Teams ✅

As of 4pm Sunday March 26th

  • Killer Rays
  • The Penetrators
  • Primal
  • Warriors
  • Vick in a Box
  • Les Bleue Dry
  • Green Monster
  • Red Dragons
  • Team Sexy
  • What Could Have Beens
  • Primetime

Division 5B Officially Eliminated Teams ❌

  • Cover 3
  • Ball So Hard U
  • Stormers

Division 5B – Week 11 Happenings 🗞️

  • Brewers got a very important victory to keep their playoff hopes alive with a surprising blowout over Cover 3.
  • Tylar Bianchi was in a rhythm in his game against Stormers, with his best performance of the season, and perhaps his best performance in his FPF career. He did have a game against the Brewers in Division 6 last year where he also put up 7 TDs (and threw no interceptions) with a 151.5 QBR, but this game against Stormers being 5B and only having 3 incompletions must have felt like everything was clicking and was just feeling it. Awesome to see the QBs develop!
  • Green Monster put the baseball wall of defense up on No Punt Intended and held NPI to just 13 points. That said, NPI would go on the next day to tie What Could Have Beens, getting an all-important 2 point convert by Jacob Soles to amass a HUGE point in the standings. The tie could be what catapults them into the post-season.
  • Pocket Rockets are picking up some steam, having put up a minimum of 31 points in each of their last 3 games, including 43 this past Monday night at St-Laurent over the Blues.
  • While they would have obviously preferred the victory, Blues are currently holding on to that last playoff spot with games in Week 12 and 13 upcoming vs. Green Monster and Wolf.
  • In a blowout win over BSHU, WCHB receivers Kaylem Ferdinand, Sean Brown and Adam Leroy all had 2 TDs and 59+ yards. Leroy hit the 500-yard mark and double digit TD mark (10), putting him at the #5 spot in receiving yards as of Sunday March 26th.
  • Bulldogs made easy business of Cover 3, but the 3 INTs from Jordan Schwartz are surely a side oh his thorn as Bulldogs enter the playoffs.
  • We were treated to a great game between the Warriors and Red Dragons on Wednesday night in Laval. After the Warriors tied the game on an Adam Lieblein 21-yard TD, the Warriors, going for 1 took a false start penalty, forcing them to go for 1 from the 10-yard line which was returned by Timoté Nehma-Lacasse for 1 and the lead, 27-26 in the game. After 2 incomplete passes though, a bad snap that sailed juusssttt over the outstretched fingers of Guillaume Boulanger landed in the endzone for a safety, giving the ball and the lead back to the Warriors. The Warriors would punch in another score, leaving the Red Dragons 5 plays for the comeback. A big gain from Lucian Leontiev put RD in a prime position to score. On what was whistled as the last play of the game, and a ball batted down by the Warriors defense, the Warriors rusher, Eden Raffoul was called offside for leaving early and crossing the line of scrimmage, giving the RD’s a second shot at the endzone. A heave made it to the endzone, but ultimately batted away by Mitch Fergenbaum for the win.
  • Primetime had a chance to show what they’ve got against The Penetrators, and will need to try better if they meet again in the Playoffs.
  • Les Bleue Dry could not contain Antoine Chabot as he torched them for 70 yards and 2 TD offensively, but also put up a 3rd TD with a pick 6 off of 1 of his 2 INTs. The guy was all over the field and has speed for daysss.

A Look into Week 12 🔮

  • Week 12 started off with a bang yesterday, as HimU took a beatdown from Team Sexy. Before we continue with HimU’s odds of making the playoffs, Ben Berbrier had a solid night at QB. While only 97 yards doesn’t stand out as fantastic, he made the most of the short fields his defense provided him, never failing to score to… well, he didn’t exactly get the HimU team to shut up, but he scored enough for them to visibly show their frustrations both internally and towards Team Sexy. The affair got a little chippy, but nothing meriting a suspension.
  • Okay, so onto HimU’s playoff chances. While HimU is not technically eliminated yet, it’s not looking good for them. They have a 1-3 divisional record and have given up 268 points. They would need both the Blues and the Brewers to lose out, would need Wolf to lose to Warriors and beat Blues, while wanting the Blues to allow more than 45 points in 2 games. Honestly, that’s not impossible. I think a lot of those things can go their way. I think:

Brewers lose to Warriors ✅

Blues lose to Green Monster ✅

Wolf lose to Warriors ✅

What HimU’s season comes down to is the Blues vs. Wolf game, which is honestly a pick em’ game. If Wolf were to win that game, I can see Green Monster putting up a Max of 24 points against Blues in Week 12, which means Wolf would need to put up at least 22 points in a victory for HimU to squeak in. I’m giving HimU a 37% chance of making the playoffs, which all things considered, are pretty good odds. (I think I got the scenarios laid out right for HimU, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it).

  • Ball So Hard U will try to end their season with at least 1 win, while one of their opponents, Pocket Rockets will try to officially clinch a playoff spot.
  • Red Dragons will once again have a great test before entering the playoffs, this time against The Penetrators. I have to say, the player who’s come alive in FPF in 5B and impressed a ton is Timoté Nehma-Lacasse. In his rookie FPF season, he’s put up 440 yards and 15 TDs along with 3 INTs, a sack and 3 PDs. He’s emerging as a VERY solid 2-way player for this franchise.
  • Killer Rays vs. Vick in a Box should be a good, but tough test for Jeff Tayeh, to see how far he’s come in his development. He shouldn’t measure his success in this one with wins and losses however, rather how he plays, reads the defense, moves the ball upfield and whether or not he scores. For Killer Rays, they try to go undefeated on the season, with a small hiccup in the form of a tie.

Trophy Talk 🏆

  • It’s a 3-way race for QBOY and will come down to who will have the better game in their final game of the season between Boulanger, Goodman and Tayeh. Boulanger leads with 43 TDs (Passing and Rushing) while Goodman and Tayeh are tied with 42. Goodman has thrown the least INTs (6), and has racked up the most yards overall (1716). VERYYYY interesting discussion. Can’t wait to see how this one plays out.
  • 2-way player of the year is also INCREDIBLY close. As a reminder, this is the most valuable award of them all, as it means you were dominant on not just 1 side of the ball, but both. If I was picking (and I’m not), I would give 2-way to Antoine Chabot, which then gives Receiver of the Year to Max Burah.
  • That leaves Defensive Player of the Year…. my prediction: Vincent Bolullo with 22 sacks. That is a ridiculous amount of sacks, and having discussed with Vince, he has a close eye on the record books at the record career. With a couple more sacks, he could enter the Top 10 in most sacks in a season. The most ever? 29 by teammate of mine, “Sackary” Alberts-Gill (a.k.a. “The Cocaine Bear”).

Game Picks – My picks in Bold 🎯

Pocket Rockets vs. Ball So Hard U

Green Monster vs. Blues

Ball So Hard U. vs. Primetime

Les Bleue Dry vs. Bulldogs

The Penetrators vs. Red Dragons

Warriors vs. Wolf

Killer Rays vs. Vick in a Box

Week 11 – Team of the Week

Time to see who balled out in the tight games of Week 11

QBs of the Week (2)

QB1 – Justin Goodman (The Penetrators): 18/27 (66.7%), 252 Passing Yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs

QB2 – Tylar Bianchi (Killer Rays): 17/20 (85%), 226 Passing Yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 1 Rushing Attempt, 16 Rushing Yards

Receivers of the Week (5)

WR1 – Kendell Copeland (Blues): 8 receptions, 8 targets, 136 yards, 2 TDs, 2x XP1

WR2 – Tyler Gurberg (Killer Rays): 6 receptions, 6 targets, 92 yards, 3 TDs, 2x XP1

WR3 – Jacob Salvail (Pocket Rockets): 4 receptions, 4 targets, 90 yards, 3 TDs

WR4 – Zac Lyman (Primetime): 4 receptions, 4 targets, 117 yards, 2 TDs

WR5 – Nicholas Fon (The Penetrators): 5 receptions, 6 targets, 106 yards, 2 TDs

Honourable Mention: Kaylem Ferdinand (What Could Have Beens – Game 2): 5 receptions, 6 targets, 86 yards, 2 TDs

Defensive Players of the Week (5) + 1 Rusher

DB1 – Saige Adams (What Could Have Beens – Game 2): 3 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 PD, 1 Def TD

DB2 – Craig O’Brien (Pocket Rockets): 5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 Def TD

DB3 – Cory Dankner (Bulldogs): 1 tackle, 1 INT, 1 PD, 1 Def TD

DB4 – Matthew Cadogan (No Punt Intended – Game 2): 2 tackles, 1 INT, 2 PDs

DB5 – Sean Brown (What Could Have Beens – Game 1): 5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 PD

Rusher – Vincent Bolullo (Red Dragons): 2 tackles, 4 sacks

Epilogue

Alright Div 5B, that does it to recap Week 11. If you want more content, there’s always more! Here’s our podcast, Calling The Audible from this past Friday with Moe Khan, Peeze and Eagle at Master Control: