And then there were 2: Ramphins and Bend Don’t Break in the finals

One more game until we crown our Div E winners, and I don’t think many people believed these two teams would face in the finals. Seeds 10 and 14, 6-4 and 5-5 records in the regular season respectively. This is now Bend Don’t Break’s 5th playoff game. Playing that many games in a season can only help with chemistry and momentum, but might mean some players are bruised and banged up.

Bend Don’t Break vs. Hail Marty’s

It seems they’ve taken another step in the playoffs, and their most recent win in the semi-finals versus Hail Marty’s was dominant. Winning by 14 against a team which looked virtually unbeatable throughout the season is impressive. Limiting the best offensive team in the regular season to 14 points is unbelievable. They limited Brandon Vickers to only 39 yards and a TD. Marty Freedman was only allowed to score twice and threw 3 interceptions. 

Luke Moreau was once again great defensively with a pick and 2PDs. His offensive performance was even better, throwing 4TDs and 0 interceptions. Dominic Weidner was incredible as well, catching all 4 balls thrown to him for 64 yards and 2TDs. The team got picks from Joseph Shporer and William Gillespie too. Josh Notte kept up his offensive production with another 59 yards and a TD. 

Bend Don’t Break’s turnaround

Bend Don’t Break are really coming along, and Luke Moreau has been by far the best QB in the playoffs. He’s the the only QB with over 12TDs with 17. His 4 picks thrown in 4 games are also an improvement from the 12 in 9 he had in the regular season. Josh Notte and Dominc Weidner are 1st and 2nd in playoff receiving yards and TDs. 4 picks and 16 (!)PDs in 4 games is devastatingly worrying for Ramphins. 

Sheldon Dumeignil’s struggles

8 wins in a row for Ramphins is a wonderful feat. After their disappointing start to the season, they’ve had the biggest turnaround I’ve seen. Unfortunately, the win against FSU in the semis wasn’t particularly impressive on account of FSU being 5, and them also being without their QB Justin Schwartz. 

Sheldon Dumeignil only put up 24 points against 5 players. I’m not going to lie, that has me a little worried. His playoff stats are very underwhelming. His 74.1 QB rating is not up to par for a championship QB, but Div E can be very volatile and QBs are usually inconsistent. Only 7TDs thrown in 4 games usually shouldn’t get you to the finals, but it did. He has been running very well with the ball to his credit, averaging over 10 yards per rush on 15 attempts. 

Ramphins’ depth

Ramphins’ defense has been amazing in the playoffs though, especially Jessy Dumeignil who’s been all over the field at safety. Opposing QBs are scared to throw it deep when he’s around, and that can have an impact that doesn’t show up on the stat-sheet. Billy Guay has also been great on D, with 2 picks and a pick 6. These guys will need to have a great game. The all-around offensive output for Ramphins has also been encouraging.

Matchup spotlights

Sheldon Dumeignil vs. Luke Moreau

I’m going to give this one to Luke Moreau, and pretty easily. Not only has he been fantastic throwing the ball, he’s made some great plays on defense. Sheldon Dumeignil can be great in any given game, but his inconsistency has me a little worried.

Jessy Dumeignil vs. Dominic Weidner

I’m giving this one a tie, on the account that Weidner has been the best receiver in the playoffs so far and Jessy Dumeignil has been the best defender. Jessy Dumeignil hasn’t had the most impact offensively, with only 4 catches, 87 yards and 3TDs in 2 games. Dominic Weidner hasn’t been great on defense with 0 interceptions and only 1PD. Jessy was better offensively in the regular season and Weidner was better defensively in the regular season. Both guys are 2-way monsters and are the best field players on their teams.

Chad Dumeignil vs. Josh Notte

Chad had 11 sacks, 4 interceptions and 4PDs in the regular season, but his defensive impact in the playoffs has been underwhelming. 0 sacks, 1 interception and 1PD is not enough. Meanwhile, Josh Notte has come out of his cage and rampaged. 6 sacks and 2 PDs in 4 games is great, but his offensive impact has been even greater. Despite being the second option on offense, he leads the playoffs in yards with 206 and has 5TDs as well. He’s already surpassed his regular season totals in yards, TDs and sacks. I have to give this one to him.

The rest of the guys

Ramphins’ depth surely beats Bend Don’t Break’s. After Weidner and Notte, there aren’t many offensive threats. Arden Finkelstein is the only other player with more than five targets with 18, but he does have 84 yards in 4 games, with 2TDs. The strength they have is that there are no defensive liabilities and Joseph Sphorer has taken a step in the playoffs. 

Ramphins are more efficient defensively, picking off the QB more often. They are averaging 2 interceptions per game, and already have 2 pick 6s. 

Prediction

I’ve been hammering about how solid Ramphins’ squad has been the last two months. Sheldon Dumeignil ended the regular season strong, but has struggled a little bit in the playoffs. Their defense has been the main reason for their success in the playoffs, and that will be the key today. 

I wonder how comfortable Luke Moreau will be throwing against such a solid defense, and it will be even more true if Chad Dumeignil rushes the same way he’s done all year. I don’t necessarily think that this will be a shootout, but if Sheldon Dumeignil finds his groove back in this one, I can see both QBs throwing 4TDs or more. 

Both QBs will need to get their legs moving to extend plays, as it is a strength for both. Playoff performances favor Bend Don’t Break, especially since the emergence of Josh Notte. 

Jessy Dumeignil will be the key player of this game for me. Luke Moreau hasn’t faced such a good defender yet in the playoffs, and he will need to be careful throwing in his zone. 

Dominic Weidner and Josh Notte have been nothing short of fantastic this playoff run, but Ramphins have the pieces to slow them down. 

I believe this will be a great game, and I’d be surprised if one team beats the other by more than one possession. My head tells me Bend Don’t Break is going to win this one, as they’ve simply been the best team by far in the playoffs. My heart tells me Ramphins are going to end the season with the banner, as they always seem to find ways to win. 

I really like Ramphins’ energy. It’s a great group of guys and they truly bring their everything to every game they play, and it is the finals. 

I would really like to see this one go to OT, and I think both teams are pretty much evenly matched when it comes to converts in the regular season, with Ramphins completing for 40% on 1s and 25% on 2s, while Bend Don’t Break converted 42.1% on 1s and 25% on 2s, but in the playoffs, Ramphins are only converting at a 33.3% clip for both 1s and 2s, while Bend Don’t Break converted on 43.8% of their 1s and 75% of their 2s. I think both teams should try to go for 2 as much as possible with a game that’s going to be very close, and Bend Don’t Break seem to have the upper hand on converts, but Ramphins go for 2 more often. 

It will be close but I think Bend Don’t Break will end with the championship, and I would love to see the 14th seed go from being in a play-in game to winning it all.

Final score prediction: 33-31 Bend Don’t Break

Good luck to both teams today!