A look ahead at Week 13 – Divisional Round

Week 13.

The best games are really upon us in my opinion. This is where things get really interesting. Okay, sure, we’ve seen a few upsets last week, but the potential for more really expands as Week 13 kicks off. Why? Simple, really. Parity is at its finest. It’s tough to tell which team is stronger at this point of the season; will the bye-week kill the high seeds’ streaks? Will teams get tired of playing so many games back-to-back? Who’s got what it takes to last? I’m getting off-rails here; this isn’t Peeze’s private journal.

FPF is aware of the possible frustration playing this coming Saturday is to certain players. It sucks, it really does, but we’re restrained in our timeframes and Div 4 has A LOT of playoffs games to be played. It is also explained by why we’ve got the quarterfinals 3 days after the divisional rather than a full week. We apologize for the inconveniences this could produce for many of you, we really tried to do our best here. Hey, Saturday is better than Sunday!

As you might have noticed, my articles are getting shorter and will continue with the same tendency until the road show. Why? Well, it’s nothing against you guys, really. I do enjoy what I do, but the content is reducing with every passing week. I used to have 40 teams and 20 games to discuss with you, now I’m down to 16 teams and 8 games and soon to only have half of that. I’ll do my best, but writing just to fill out pages kinda reminds me of my CEGEP years and I doubt you really want to read all the BS I wrote back then just to fill out the minimal amount of pages they asked of us.

Anyways,

Week 13 – Divisional Round

A few intriguing thoughts before we kick off the divisional round :

This looks a lot like the kind of top 16 I would’ve predicted (give or take a team or two) pre-season
This week and next week might become the best two weeks in Div4 we’ve seen all year. If you have time, get to Lachine.
GM and Moe are a lot better on the podcast when they “enjoy it” and are laid back.
Also, Eagle sounded way too good at choking; clearly not his first time.
Team Ethnik pulled a great upset, but I’m not that shocked Crisp lost.
I’d love to see half the bye-week teams losing this week.
It’s funny how much the FPF playoffs are all about matchups; you could lose a shot at the title just because of the way the seeding crumbled around you.
Is this the time Marco in the Middle really turns it on or will they lose because they don’t care enough?
Shmoney remains a question mark to me
Could Dragons have their 2nd playoff win in a row due to luck?
God, this week has amazing matchups; let’s get to it.

Playoff Picture

Conf A	Team	PTS	W(P-F)	DIV	PA	Conf B	Team	PTS	W(P-F)	DIV	PA
1	6 Fast Guys Plus Ryan	17	8	[3-1-0]	263	1	Grip n Rip	16	8	[2-2-0]	227
2	Coyotes	16	8	[4-0-0]	215	2	Game Changers	16	8	[4-0-0]	216
3	Shmoney	16	8	[3-1-0]	232	3	Shamrocks	15	7	[4-0-0]	255
4	CREAM Team	14	7	[3-1-0]	282	4	Backyard Bullies	12	6	[3-1-0]	229
5	69ers	14	7	[4-0-0]	313	5	Maloudes	16	8	[3-1-0]	185
6	Recipe 4 Disaster	14	7	[3-1-0]	242	6	Two and a Half Dans	16	8	[4-0-0]	222
7						7	Marco in the Middle	11	5	[3-1-0]	219
8						8
9	Ghosts	11	5	[2-2-0]	310	9	Dragons	11	5	[1-2-1]	275
10	Team Ethnik	11	5	[1-3-0]	296	10
11						11
12						12

Previews

6Fast Guys Plus Ryan (1st) vs Team Ethnik (10th)

Previous matchup : 44 – 26 6Fast Guys Plus Ryan

Analysis : Last week, Team Ethnik pulled a serious upset by beating Crisp in a not so close game after all. This week, they face possibly the division’s strongest team and a much more complete team than Crisp was. That being said, Team Ethnik really surprised me last week by keeping their composure and playing smart football. They studied their opponent, took away their key plays and forced them into making bad reads and bad throws which revolved in a W. This week, they’ll somehow have to take away Viens’ ability to constantly connect with his brother when things get rough and to shutdown Brisebois’ insane YAC ability. Do they have what it takes?

This matchup will come down to how efficient Team Ethnik’s QB (which I’m assuming is Lawlor considering Garofalo is injured) can be against a fast and steady rusher and if he can complete passes and keep his offense on the field when under pressure. If he starts to lose his cool and crumble, this will get out of hand fast like the last time these two faced. Team Ethnik needs to take control of this game and use 6Fast’s confidence as their demise. They will not shutdown their offense like they did against Crisp, but they’ll have to minimize the damage.

Key matchups : Anthony Garant’s rushing vs Team Ethnik’s QB (Lawlor or Garofalo)

Prediction : 38 – 25 6Fast Guys Plus Ryan

Backyard Bullies (4th) vs Maloudes (5th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : Backyard Bullies are coming off a bye-week and I’m pretty sure they weren’t too happy about the matchup they ended up getting. The Bullies are an excellent FPF team and they’ve proven they can compete with any given opponent. That being said, Maloudes is a matchup nightmare for most teams and knowing how Backyard Bullies use their athleticism to their advantage in most games, they’ll have to switch it up a bit this week. They’ll matchup well on defense against Maloudes’ swift receivers, but I’m more concerned with their offense than their defense. Frezza will find ways to score, he always does, but can Rich Humes do the same?

In what happens to be the worst matchup the Bullies could get, there’s no easy road to the Championship. Rich Humes has seen higher talent and knows what to expect from strong football athletes; there’s no intimidating this guy. Thibault has a serious edge on Humes knowing he can take away the whole scrambling option, but that doesn’t mean the Bullies’ offense cannot work otherwise. I’m expecting the first half to be a very close contest and it’ll come down to who adjusts better in the 2nd half to take it away from their opponents.

Key matchups : Sebastien Thibault vs Rich Humes

Prediction : 32 – 20 Maloudes

Shamrocks (3rd) vs Two and a half Dans (6th)

Previous matchup : 21 – 18 Shamrocks

Analysis : I gotta admit, I love this matchup. First, for personal reasons; The Dans can knock Shamrocks off and I’m pretty happy with that deal because I’d hate facing Shamrocks later in the playoffs. Second, because both these teams are favorite and one will lose. Third and foremost, it’s an amazing matchup. Last time these two teams faced, Shamrocks won and gave the Dans their only lost of the season, which is quite remarkable. That being said, it was in Week 3 when both teams were sorta struggling and didn’t find their rhythm yet. I do not expect to see the same teams we saw 10 weeks ago take the field.

Doug McKernan knows what to expect from this Dans’ defense and will find ways to carve it upside down. He’s great at it. He has weapons QBs dream of and he uses them exceptionally well. This game will come down to Shamrocks’ defense and how they adjust to this unorthodox’ offense. I do like the idea GM brought up of having Jourdain Alexis rush Joey Taylor and shutdown most of their options, but I also like to see the Alexis brothers roam the field and use their skills to frustrate the Dans’ receivers for 44 minutes. If Shamrocks can make the stops to give McKernan the ball back in a timely fashion, this game is theirs. Otherwise, we could see the Dans move forward; their defense will make a much-needed stop. I think Shamrocks’ trio of quarterback could actually end up being their own demise this time around. McKernan is great at what he does and should stick to it; giving other guys possession could end up in a serious mistake; the Dans are deceptively good on defense.

Key matchups : Alexis brothers vs The Dans’ offense

Prediction : 38 – 37 Two and a half Dans

CREAM Team (4th) vs 69ers (5th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : As the podcast mentioned earlier this week, these two teams use different style of offenses to find success; 69ers like to chuck the ball down deep while CREAM Team is more methodical and find mismatches to exploit. Is one better than the other? I guess time will tell, but both styles have seen success in the past; it really comes down to who is more comfortable doing what. These are two of the best Conference A teams and I’ve been high on both this season.

69ers’ offensive trio has been rocking Division 4 and they don’t plan on stopping just yet. CREAM Team has the defense to put up with their receivers, but will they be able to put a stop to Harbour’s deep ball? If the 69ers are allowed to score quickly and put the pressure on their defense, they will prevail by forcing Humphrey in making a mistake at some point. If, somehow, the pressure comes back on the 69ers’ offense to produce and keep up as they could be trailing early if they don’t start with the ball, we could see the bad side of Harbour shine through and a flaw in their system. We’ve seen them have amazing days and not-so-amazing days. If Harbour plays the way he’s been playing most of the season or like when they faced 6Fast, they will move to the Quarterfinals. The pressure is on him Saturday.

Key matchups : Matt Monat vs Dean Demetriou

Prediction : 37 – 28 69ers

Shmoney (3rd) vs Recipe 4 Disaster (6th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : Shmoney have been blowing teams out of the water this regular season and Recipe 4 Disaster managed to turn tides around to make it here. After last week’s performance, R4D really showed Div4 they’ve improved and deserved serious consideration when it comes to the title. Although R4D might have “more to prove” regarding this matchup, I wouldn’t take Shmoney lightly; they’ve been underdogs since day 1 and proved everyone wrong so far.

Recipe 4 Disaster has been using its personnel to its full potential with many trick plays offensively and a very conventional defense that has been working wonders for them recently. The key to R4D’s defense really comes down to Ryan Aridi’s ability as a rusher to be disruptive; if he can get in the QB’s head and become that threat he’s known to be, R4D’s defense really elevates and it takes a lot of the pressure off Applebaum’s shoulders to lead this team to the promised land. Shmoney’s offense has really been excelling under McGrath’s commands and the threat of Ohayon, Vizzi and the Cecere brothers is a pretty scary thought. This team is loaded and won’t go down without a fight. Forced to play without Joel Malkin, Shmoney will have a small roster but everything they need to shutdown R4D if they play their cards right. McGrath will need to ignore Aridi and do his thing and Shmoney will move to the next round.

Key matchups : Ryan Aridi vs Shawn McGrath

Prediction : 37 – 31 Recipe 4 Disaster

Game Changers (2nd) vs Marco in the Middle (7th)

Previous matchup : 25 – 24 Game Changers

Analysis : Last week, Matthew Bishara gave me love for predicting his game the way I did even if he disagreed with me at first. I’ll try to keep up this week. Game Changers are this team people seem to either underestimate or expect them to be Gods amongst men, but no one seems to get it right, ever. This week, they’re facing another similar team in Marco in the Middle who I can’t seem to figure out week-in and week-out. Maybe because they don’t seem to play up to their full potential or because I expect them to be better than what they’ve been playing, either way, both teams are pretty effin’ difficult to decipher.

Matthew Bishara excels when he’s not facing a top-tier rusher as he creates additional time with little movement and finds his receivers adequately. Although GC will take away Bishara’s deep ball effect, I’m uncertain the effect they’ll have against Eric Bishara’s phenomenal YAC ability. This game might come down to who shadows Eric Bishara for GC’s defense and how Gordon Hogan manages to keep his side of the field in-check. By restraining Sakiz’ ability to distribute the ball well, Marco in the Middle’s defense could end up creating more turnovers than they’d actually need to win this one, but that’s a lot of pressure on one guy…! I believe both teams will be able to create turnovers and score points on each other’s mistakes, but the game will really come down to Matthew Bishara’s ability to keep drives alive against a gritty defense and punch it in when it’ll really matter. He has the talent and the matchup to do so, pressure’s on him this week.

Key matchups : Tim Maag vs Eric Bishara

Prediction : 26 – 24 Marco in the Middle

Grip n Rip (1st) vs Dragons (9th)

Previous matchup : 38 – 19 Grip n Rip

Analysis : Seeing how we’ve faced before, I won’t be giving that much intel to Grip n Rip by revealing how Dragons’ actually play their game. Last time around, Vinny Gualano and Sean Avraam had a defense I couldn’t put my finger on and they kept me on my toes most of the game with clutch plays. I feared a rematch, but without Vinny Gualano, this team simply isn’t the same; they lose their best defensive player and the dual-threat him and Avraam compose on offense. Does this mean we get a freebie? Not a chance. This squad is highly talented and they know what they are doing. Will this absence hurt their chances? Definitely. This does this mean they don’t stand one? Not at all.

Dragons’ new-found rusher, Nicholas Fortier-Poulin has been devastating against opposing quarterback in this last stretch of the season and is giving life to a Dragons’ defense who seemed to have lost their way. With his impact and Maxime Cote’s return, this is not the Dragons’ we’ve seen all year and it shows in their last 3 games of the season. Sean Avraam will have to come up with a strong gameplay to knock the Dragons’ defense off their rhythm early in this game and shutdown my top 2 receivers in Fortier Poulin and Cote to reduce my throwing options. It’ll come down to a grinding battle of who can drive the field the most rather than who scores the most. I do not foresee a very high scoring game as both offenses might end up frustrated after every whistle is blown.

Key matchups : GnR’s safeties vs JFFP and Maxime Cote

Prediction : 26 – 21 Dragons

Coyotes (2nd) vs Ghosts (9th)

Previous matchup : N/A

Analysis : This matchup is simply fabulous. Two very high-octane offenses facing off against one another in the divisional round for a shot at the Ship. I really like how these two teams fare against one another. Considering both teams can score at ease against any given opponents, this could be the type of game that breaks the 80 combined points.

Alexis Gaumont seems to struggle when the rusher against him is troublesome. We’ve seen him have amazing games and very poor games in back-to-back weeks and the difference really has been the opposing rusher. If you can take away his 3rd read or his moving options, Gaumont seems to lose his rhythm and has a hard time retrieving it as the game goes along. I expect Coyotes’ offense to fire on all cylinders against this newly found Ghosts’ defense and break havoc as the seconds tick. Ghosts will be putting up with the Coyotes’ numbers and I expect whoever starts with the ball to lead most of the game. This might end up in a battle of converts where both QBs manage to throw 6 TDs and make defenses look bad. An interception will be countered by a punt and it’ll come down to who gets the additional points as this game will be within a score after the full hour has gone by. Could we see overtime?

Key matchups : Coyotes’ rusher vs Alexis Gaumont

Prediction : 43 – 42 Ghosts

This is it for Saturday’s version of my article. I hope you enjoyed it. If you didn’t, you can always blame G.M. Kolethras for having a real life or the person responsible for hiring me in the first place. I can always be reached on Twitter @DagenaisFPF like many of you have done in the past. Our email also works: [email protected] but Twitter is the new era, get with the times. Closing in on the final tour of the season, the media members lasting in the playoffs are thinning by the day.