Playing for Keeps: As the pendulum swings

THIS IS THE END OF IDEAS

This week, since I only witnessed 1 of your games live – and don’t want to bullshit through a bunch of recaps – I decided to do the mid-season review article that I didn’t get around to last week. I’ve been giving Div 2 a lot of love so far this year, so this is a Div 1 special.

And since it’s now closer to the 2/3rds mark of the season, consider this more like your NBA All-Star break review:

But first, the latest storylines.

Around the Divisions

With last night’s 41-12 trouncing at the hands of Braves 2.0, the Clockmakers are bottoming out right now. If this were a professional league, they’d be looking to dump some veteran contracts and position themselves for a higher draft pick. Since that’s not the case, they instead get to pick themselves up, figure out what’s gone wrong for them, and use the next 3 games to correct it before the games truly start to matter. No matter how low they finish, there’s not a team in conference B that would be happy to draw them in round 1. They have the experience, talent and guts to pull through, it’s all of them now to make it happen.
How about this Prospect Squad team, in the cellar of conference A after 3 weeks, they bit their ego, called in Mario Porreca to run the offense and since then have catapulted themselves to a current fifth place playoff seeding. Last night’s victory over Killa Bees was a double win, as it also buries the bees deeper into the elimination seat. PS is suddenly a hot team that can make some major waves with an upset in the final 2 weeks. SYO 4 Life are scratching their heads wondering why that couldn’t be them.
After starting the season 0-4, King’s Landing have made a remarkable resurgence in conference A, with a chance to get back to .500 next week. A softer schedule combined with a bolstered roster has made them another serious team in conference A. Last night’s win was a snoozer, but a big matchup awaits them next week against a red hot Prospect Squad. Sean Avraam deserves all credit for steering this team through the rough waters.
#NR looked shaky in a win against an unsteady SYO team last week. I would attribute the somewhat stale performance more towards mid-season complacency than any critically flawed aspect. Cory Pecker took a while to get going, throwing INTs on each of his first two drives with underthrown balls towards Manuel Crisi-Lauzon. He finally delivered in the second half, and iced the game with a gangster rusher-dodge and run to get the final conversion. Kristian Cerantola did not look good in this game, with many of his passes sailing into the next field over. After a brief spike in play, SYO have really tailed off over the last few weeks. Last night they struggled to field a 6 man roster. I hope we won’t be on forfeit alert with them the rest of the way.
Terror Squad look to be peaking at the right time, reeling off 3 straight convincing wins and surging up conference A. Alexandre Chevrier needs to start appearing on everyone’s list of players to watch, as he’s quietly amassed 10 TDs on offense and 3 INTs on D, including 2 pick 6s. The pairing of him with Serge Pilon Jr. is creating a veritable No Fly Zone for opposing offenses. Credit Jasmin Rioux for executing the legendary Flower Defense to perfection. Offenses can’t seem to solve the enigmatic bamboozlement of the flower power. The flower is strong with these ones.

D1 Shakedown

*Note: the teams below are not sorted by ranking, but rather by intriguing storyline. For the regular power ranking see section below.

Montreal’s Finest (3-3) – 4th Place Div 1

Averages: 33.33 PF vs 37 PA (-22 on season)

After starting the season 2-0, they’ve slumped to a 1-3 record over the past 4 games. Their most recent loss to the D-Boys reinforced some of the concerning signals we’ve seen from them so far this year. Their offense averages 33.33 points per game, currently listed as 6th in the division, a far cry from the dominant Finest offenses of years past. Even more concerning, their defense is bleeding out a massive 37 points per game, second worst in the division.

Most surprising has been the only human-level play of Kevin Wyeth this year. Currently ranked fifth on the QB index, his averages are on par with previous seasons, but his INT count is abnormally high. For reference, his current count of 8 INTs is tied for the most he’s ever thrown on the Finest, dating all the way back to winter 2010…over 10 games.

From their receivers, Pat Jerome is having another strong season, ranked in the top 3 at his position. He’s doing his best to carry the team on his back, but it’s become tougher to do when facing the best defenders and bracket coverages each week. After that, it starts to get thin, fast. No Guillaume Ward, no Mike Harrington, no Brian Lariviere, Akked Moore has basically been on a milk carton the whole season, this unit has lost not only depth, but top notch talent. New addition Jean-Christophe Morin-Phaneuf has done admirably while thrust into a star role, but he’s still largely unproven and expectations to carry a historically proficient offense seem too large a burden at times.

With 2 games coming up against the top 2 teams in the division, and 2 games against lower seated opponents, if we anticipate a .500 finish they would likely finish in the 3 to 5 range. Coming into the playoffs as a lower seed is not something that we’ve seen from the Finest in the past, but if they start to pull together down the stretch they would be well situated for an underdog playoff push. Imagine that, the Finest as an underdog. The only problem, by finishing outside the top 2 they’ll likely have to beat BOTH the Braves and FML to once again hoist the league’s most prestigious trophy. Nothing’s impossible with this legendary team, but their lack of depth is a red flag heading into the meat of the season.

D-Boys (2-4) – 7th place Div 1

Averages: 31.67 PF vs 32.50 PA (-5 on season)

They’ve been playing .500 ball over the past four weeks, going 2-2 in that span after stumbling out of the gate 0-2. If you pull out the two 11 pm games, in which they had to scramble to field a roster, they’re still only .500 on the year. The current issues go a bit deeper than the scheduling, as their 31.67 points per game ranks third from the bottom on offense.

Masciotra’s 11 INTs in 6 games is the most in the division, and his current 89.8 QBR is the second lowest mark of his career, far below the standard of excellence he’s attained in previous years. However, not all blame can be attributed to the signal caller, as his receiving corps has been plagued by injury, absence and suspension. Jamal Gittens’ value to this roster was immediately put on display in his first action this year, shredding the Finest for 61 yards and 3 TDs this past week. Getting Theo Ojeaha going down the stretch will be key as well, as the acclaimed receiver went off for 98 yards after treating lingering injuries the past few weeks. The return of Quiad Johnson from a 3 game suspension will help shore up this offense in the coming weeks, as we’ll finally get to see the all-dressed D-Boys lineup in action.

The silver lining has been the sturdy play from their defense throughout the rocky weeks. Allowing 32.5 points per game ranks them as the second best unit in the division. They’ve been consistently stingy, despite the fact that their 5 INTs and 3 sacks are as mid-pack as it gets. The mid-season addition of Travis Moses to this unit was a fantastic move. With the Jordan Beaulieu signing looking like a bust, Travis is right fit for this ball hawking roster. He’s like a PJ Tucker type defender, his contributions won’t appear on the scoresheet, but you won’t have to worry about the outside lane when he’s out there.

We’re witnessing a team fall apart, rebuild and attempt to gain chemistry all on the fly in the middle of a season in which they were expected to compete for a title. With a remaining pair of games against the top two teams in the division, and the other two against middling opponents, a 2-2 record the rest of the way seems fair. Nevertheless, the true test will be the two remaining 11 pm games, as they’ll need to at least split that slate in order to hold par. There will be a lot of movement in the rankings in the next few weeks, and the D-Boys will want to move quickly to secure their position for the playoffs. Their ceiling is as high as third place, but their floor is the basement at this point.

Flag Moi L’Sac (4-1-1) – 1st place Div 1

Averages: 40 PF vs 34.67 PA (+32 on season)

They’ve been the hottest team in the division over the last 4, going a perfect 4-0 over that span and surging into first place with their tie break over Braves. An inauspicious 0-1-1 start gave us pause at the onset, but this team has been pure crack-candy offensive fireworks all year.

Averaging a scintillating 40 points per game on offense puts them in first place by nearly a full 3 point clip over the next best team. Orchestrating the offense is the wizard of football, Alex Nadeu-Puize. He’s perfected his craft, capable of carving up the highly valuable middle of the field with surgical precision. Still holding down the top ranked QB spot (although with Maheu close on his tail), he’s on pace for his first ever 60 TD campaign. This is his master season, and we’re all bearing witness to his greatness. Assisting him on his journey are a pair of unlikely heroes in Samuel Nadeau-Piuze and Guillaume Robert. These are not your typical star quality receivers. Without dominant athleticism or speed, they use their size, angles and mostly grit to carve out their way on the field. The best part about this unit is that Vendrame and Davidson haven’t even begun cooking yet. The big guns should be fresh for a deep playoff run.

Allowing 34.67 points per game puts them squarely in the middle of the pack, and that’s phenomenal for this team. With such a potent and consistent offense, the just need a slightly above-average input from their defense to be an elite team in this conference. The key to their defensive improvement this year has been the pressure, as they lead the league with 12 sacks. The “everyone-pitch-in” tactic isn’t normally advised for a team with championship aspirations, but it’s served them well to date, with 4 different players registering at least 1 sack. The different looks and styles thrown at opposing QBs has given them an edge, and it should continue to work down the stretch.

With 4 games left against the premier teams in the division (besides Braves), they certainly have their eye on first place, but their main focus is the bigger prize still. A first round bye would go a long way to taking them to their first ever finals, and finally discarding the label of the “next” team.

Braves (4-2-1) – 2nd place Div 1

Averages: 37.71 PF vs 25.43 PA (+86)

It’s getting hard to mention FML these days without mentioning Braves in the same sentence. There’s no doubt that these teams have distinguished themselves from the rest so far this season, but it also isn’t hard to see that between the two heavyweights, Braves are better built to go the distance.

They’re adherents of the old adage that defense wins championships, as their suffocating unit averages 25.43 points per game, an amazing 7 points less than the next ranked team. It’s staggering that a Div 1 defense is holding its opponents to just 4 TDs per game. Anchoring this unit is the space eater Georges Gariépy. Similar to Rudy Gobert in the Association, his massive ability to disrupt passing lanes is one of the most valuable traits in the entire league. With 3 INTs and 6 PDs he’s firmly in contention for the DPOY award, that’s if he doesn’t win the 2WAY instead. With 8 INTs and 11 sacks they register in third and second place, respectively. Julien Paiement, another DPOY candidate, leads all rushers in the division. His explosive speed and low center of gravity make him as close to unshakeable as possible. His diving, full extension sacks are becoming his signature move. Just check out the most recent GOTW for proof. There’s a strong argument that the Braves defense is single best unit in the entire league (either offense or defense). At this point, the data certainly supports it.

But just to be sure, they hedge their bets with a second ranked offense, putting up 37.71 points per game. If ANP is a wizard, then Jonathan Maheu is a tactician. His short, succinct, dagger offense is military-like in its efficiency. With the way they connect early in the drive, forcing them into a turnover on downs is next to impossible. They run 6 deep on offense, with everyone getting a healthy slice of the pie. The balance is what makes them so dangerous, as Maheu will go to whichever receiver has the best matchup with the game on the line. Hugely important in their success this year has been their ability to connect on 2-point converts. The Braves 2-point play should be studied by all QBs, it’s the perfect combination of deception and spacing.

They have 3 tough games remaining against the three most historic teams in the division. With the way they’re playing, anything less than 2-1 would be a letdown. I don’t think they have enough time to catch FML for first, but the second place bye will be critical for their championship run. Their Takeover Tour is picking up steam heading into the final leg of the season.

Got Fat (2-3) – 8th place Div 1

Averages: 36.20 PF vs 40 PA (-19)

Through the odd quirk of FPF winter scheduling, coupled with a postponed game in week 1, they’ve only played 5 games so far in 7 weeks of action. With 2 wins in the last 3 games, their reduced action actually helps them, as it puts them only a half game back from the glut of 3 win teams in the division.

If anyone is writing off Got Fat’s playoff hopes already, they’re extremely wrong. This team is doing filthy things on offense, pumping in 36.20 ppg; good for fourth in the division. There’s also less than a point separating them from the second place team on the list. The offense can be most accurately described as Flag Moi L’Sac lite. Similar to ANP, Nic Centomo is having his master season this year. The third ranked QB in our index, he’s throwing with the type of fearless confidence that he displayed when he first started in the lower divisions with Les Monsieurs Chats. The ball is whistling through the field, and it’s finding its way mostly into the hands of Jean-François Marquis. The lanky, slow-footed receiver – who’s never caught more than 7 TDs in a season – is currently on pace for 10 at the mid-point. Defenders may think they have an easy assignment when matched up before him, until the ball is in the air. He’s demonstrated remarkable box-out ability and a keen sense for adjusting to the ball mid-flight. Most importantly for this offense, he catches Centomo’s fireballs with a smooth ease.

They’re also the Flag Moi L’Sac of defense, in the worst possible way. Yielding 40 points per game ranks them dead last in the division. With only 3 INTs and 3 sacks so far, their sieve of a defense hasn’t come close to supporting their powerful offense in a meaningful way. Their prospects on that side of the ball don’t look great in the near term either, as they lack the speed to keep up with the top receivers in the division. They’ll need to get creative at this point, and start risking touchdowns for a chance at a single stop each game. With the way their offense is playing this year, a single stop might be all it takes for them on most weeks.

Also working in their favor is the fact that they avoid both Braves and FML for the rest of their schedule. If they can find a way to pull off 2 wins in the final 5, they may squeeze in to the 6th seed thanks to a tie breaker. However, they’ll be much more comfortable going for a 5 win season and getting a guaranteed playoff spot. They can’t afford a let-down in the next few weeks, as all the teams they play are in front of them in the standings, and every loss from here on out will just further the gap.

DK (3-3) – 3rd place Div 1

Averages: 36.83 PF vs 32.83 PA (+24)

Since bottoming out at 1-3 to begin the year, they’ve won the last 2 games to scratch and claw their way back to .500. With the parity in Div 1 this season, their recent climb up the rankings has brought them all the way from last place to third. This is a great indicator for a seriously talented, veteran team that hasn’t even reached its peak yet.

Powering their recent rise has been the third ranked offense, averaging 36.83 ppg. Rochdi is quietly having another remarkable season at QB, trending towards 57 TDs while completing his passes at a 70% clip. He’s currently the fourth rated QB in a very competitive class. Leading the way for them on offense is the spectacular Serge Pilon Jr., who’s torching the field with 17 TDs, four ahead of the next ranked challenger. Barring injury he’s already got an award locked up by season’s end, either WROY or 2WAY.

Balance is key for this team’s success as they match their offense with the third ranked defense, averaging 32.83 points per game. Their 9 team takeaways ranks second in the division, with the extremely versatile Alex Pilon piling up 2 INTs and 3 sacks for his squad. The defense has been particularly stifling during the recent 2 game win streak, buckling down and allowing a measly 22 points per game.

The one major question I have for this team surrounds their team building strategy, as their most talented 2WAY player Nicolas Arsenault-Hum has been back from injury for a few weeks now, but only has 1 game registered. At this point, he’ll need to play out the remaining 4 games (with a numbered jersey) just to qualify for playoffs. It seems counterintuitive to have your best player on the field, taking reps, but not position him to be playoff eligible.

With a highly anticipated rematch against Waste Yout this week, we’ll see if the defense can hold Dan Lazzara under the 38 points he scored on them in week 3. With games against Braves and FML still remaining, it would be hard to see them moving up any further than their current spot. Holding down the 3 spot would be a good achievement heading into the second season.

Waste Yout (2-3) – 6th place Div 1

Averages: 28.60 PF vs 34.40 PA (-29)

They gave us something to root for at the beginning of the season, starting off 2-0 and building the hype for the next generation of Div 1 talent. Since then, the hype’s worn off, as they’ve come back down to reality dropping 3 straight games. The roster was a bit patchy at the beginning, focusing more on scoring points than getting stops, but missed games and suspensions has disrupted their rhythm drastically.

Ranked second to last in the division, with 28.6 ppg, they’re only ahead of a team who’s starting QB has missed three straight games. Dan Lazzara is doing the best with what he has, which is an up-and-coming roster that’s still feeling out the division. If you remove their 2 week slump against Monstars and FML, they’re producing at the league average. Mercurial superstar AJ Gomes has performed well when he’s on the field, but has gotten too entangled with the refs in the early portion of the season. Now only 1 major penalty away from a multiple game suspension, he needs to realize that he’s on the radar of every referee in the league, and act accordingly. Khalil Kerr has impressed from the snapper position, reeling in 28% of his team’s share of catches. If they can finally align all their pieces and get everyone going at the same time, the potential is still explosive.

The defense has been the anchor for this team early on. Allowing 34.4 points per game ranks them squarely at fourth in the division, topping everyone’s projections for this unit from preseason. They only have a pedestrian 4 INTs and 3 sacks, but they’re tough as cheap steak and their athleticism allows them to force turnovers on downs.

Similar to Got-Fat, the fact that they’ve only played 5 games helps them with their playoff push. Also, they avoid both Braves and FML in the second half of the season. I can see this team going 3-2 from here on out, and finishing with a solid 4-6 spot in the rankings. They’ll be an interesting team to watch come playoffs, since we haven’t seen the best football out of them yet in 2019.

Monstars (3-4) – 5th place Div 1

Averages: 25.57 PF vs 35.14 PA (-67)

Similar to Waste Yout, they impressed everyone out of the gate with a 2-0 record. Since then, they’ve struggled mightily, going 1-4 and entering week 8 on a 3 game losing streak.

With the worst offense in Div 1, they get no break for missing their star QB the past 3 weeks. Even before his departure, they were averaging only 28.5 ppg, which would still rank them last. With a repertoire of talented and athletic receivers, the Monstars will need to significantly boost their 59% completion rate on offense. Low completion percentage with only 10-11 yards per pass is a recipe for trouble, putting them in a bunch of difficult 3rd and fourth down situations. Theo Bekelis has been the bright spot on offense, as the rising star snapper is consistently putting his talents on display at the league’s top level. They’ll need to get Anthony Brisebois going down the stretch, as he’s their true deep threat along with Sam Mashtoub.

Their defense is around the middle of the pack, but at 35.14 points per game there is some room to improve, especially if the offense stays stagnant. The bright spot is their ball hawking ability, as they lead the division with 11 INTs of the year. The multiple week absence of Rod Mashtoub has impacted their defense as much as their offense, as he still leads the league with 4 INTs in only as many games. It will be interesting to see if his missed games hurts him or helps him in the running for the DPOY award.

They only have 3 games remaining on the calendar, and with 2 of them against beatable opponents they really have no alternative but to aim for at least 2-1. A .500 record should help them secure a solid ranking for the playoffs, but should they go 4-6 they’ll be likely be a bubble team, with their fate in the hands of their opponents. That’s not an ideal situation for a team that came into the season with dark horse appeal.

Power Rankings

FML 4-1-1 (+1): Offense keeps humming. They leapfrog Braves with the 1 point victory last week.
Braves 4-2-1 (-1): No shame in losing a close one to a great opponent. They’ll look to close off their schedule now and prepare for the revenge game in the Div 1 finals.
DK 3-3 (+3): The highest rising team keeps surging up the rankings. They’ll look to defend their position over the last 4 weeks of the season.
Montréal’s Finest 3-3 (-1): Starting to feel like a boat leaking water.
D-Boys 2-4 (+2): Volatile, mercurial, erratic are all ways to describe the D-Boys season to date. Through it all, they remain a few good wins from surging up the rankings.
Monstars 3-4 (-2): Giving them a generous pass here since they’ve had a backup QB for the past 3 weeks (all losses). Still, finding the proper replacement is key to team building, and their questionable choices drops them 2 spots.
Got-Fat 2-3 (+1): Love how they came out and put up an emphatic win against a talented but erratic Waste Yout.
Waste Yout 2-3 (-3): They’re in the forest right now, digging through the bushes and searching for the light. I’m looking for their star QB to guide them back to the right path.

Braves 2.0 6-1 (/): Got through the “tough” part of their schedule 1-1. Tricky game this week against an experienced but slipping foe. Should be our last chance to read them before playoffs.
YCSWU 6-0 (/): Just cleared the toughest stop in their second half schedule. Battling complacency will be key for them now.
#NR 5-1 (/): With the way they’re underplaying soft opponents, it’s getting hard to keep them here with a surging STL in their rear-view. This week will be telling, as both teams face tough opponents.
STL 5-1 (/): Huge slugfest this week between two of the premier teams in conference B. Playoff teaser, anyone?
Khantroversy 4-3 (/): See directly above.
Bad Boys 3-4 (/): Nearly pulled off the improbable comeback against YCSWU, while playing with a short roster. Chenard has looked great at QB the last few weeks. His chemistry with Hum is fantastic. No rest this week, as a huge conference game against NR awaits them.
Terror Squad 3-3 (+3): The hottest rising team in conference A keeps on surging. They’ll surpass their the Bad Boys this week with a loss. This could be the dark horse team of conference A.
Kings Landing 2-4 (+3): The time is now for them. They’re making their second half push up the rankings and preparing for a playoff run. They should be back to .500 in two weeks’ time.
Clockmakers 2-4 (-2): They’re free falling right now. They desperately need an easy game to get their mojo back, but won’t be afforded that until SYO in week 10.
Alkaholiks 2-3 (-2): The bottom’s fallen out for them as well, as the playoff teams are starting to run over them. It doesn’t get any easier for the rest of the year, with a murder’s row schedule of games ahead.
Prospect Squad 2-5 (+2): The feel good story of Div 2. Look for them to move even further up the rankings next week, with another win last night.
Nighthawks 1-4-1 (-3): They’re sputtering right now, and need a spark defensively. Rick keeps on digging on offense, but they can’t win if they don’t get stops.
Killa Bees 1-5 (-1): Their prospects are looking very bleak right now, sitting in the basement of conference A. They don’t own the tiebreak against Alkaholiks either, so they’ll need to start winning and hope for some help form the division. Time’s running out though.
SYO 4 Life 0-5-1 (/): Let’s hope they keep coming out to the field each week. If they need help fielding rosters the rest of the way, there’s a bunch of young players who would be happy to get some run in div 2. They just have to ask. Manuel Crizi-Lauzon is a stud. He should get recruited on a good team this spring.

Avraam’s Spreads:

I decided to spice things up for the projections this season. Welcome to Avraam’s Spreads, where the old head of FPF will play bookie on a weekly basis, handicapping the games for us with just the right amount of juice. Featuring Simon Dagenais and bonus picks from the odds maker himself.

Monstars (-7) vs Got Fat

Alex’s pick: Got-Fat

Simon’s pick: Got-Fat

Sean’s pick: Monstars

Braves (-8) vs D-Boys

Alex’s pick: D-Boys

Simon’s pick: Braves

Sean’s pick: D-Boys

DK (-2) vs Waste Yout

Alex’s pick: DK

Simon’s pick: Waste Yout

Sean’s pick: DK

Flag Moi L’Sac (-5) vs MTL Finest

Alex’s pick: Finest

Simon’s pick: FML

Sean’s pick: Finest

Clockmakers vs Braves 2.0 (-8)

Alex’s pick: 2.0

Simon’s pick: 2.0

Sean’s pick: 2.0

Terror Squad (-13) vs Alkaholics

Alex’s pick: Terror Squad

Simon’s pick: Alkaholics

Sean’s pick: Terror Squad

Killa Bees vs Prospect Squad (-4)

Alex’s pick: Killa Bees

Simon’s pick: Prospect Squad

Sean’s pick: Killa Bees

SYO vs King’s Landing (-10.5)

Alex’s pick: King’s landing

Simon’s pick: King’s landing

Sean’s pick: King’s landing

Bad Boys vs #NR (-3.5)

Alex’s pick: NR

Simon’s pick: Bad Boys

Sean’s pick: Bad Boys

YCSWU (-15) vs Nighthawks

Alex’s pick: NA

Simon’s pick: YCSWU

Sean’s pick: Nighthawks

STL (-4.5) vs Khantroversy

Alex’s pick: Khantroversy

Simon’s pick: Khantroversy

Sean’s pick: STL

That’s it for this week. Week 7 of FPF is officially in the books, and week 8 has already begun. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can hit me up on Facebook. If you’re craving more content please check out the Calling the Audible podcast featuring Moe Khan, Peeze and Simon, it’s a healthy dose of absurdity to get you through the week. Thanks for taking the time to read this, and make sure to check back next week to find out how week 8 shook out!