Selections, Predictions and Rumination

Peeze’s Playbook

Divisional Round

 

By Paolo Della Rocca

 

The Selection Comittee

I learned this week that many FPF players are irrational when it comes to their teams.  Once again, I want to stipulate that while I did pitch this idea as a measure of resolving what has been an awful first round in division 6 and D for years, I was not involved in the selection committee.  That committee was comprised of Moe Khan, Simon Dagenais, and Stefano Berardi.  None of these gentlemen played in the division and as scorekeepers they saw many of your games.  To help them they were provided a weekly spreadsheet that analyzed which team’s has the most difficult schedule.  Will be linked on Facebook where the article is posted.

 

Where the committee was right

For the most part I agree with much of what the committee decided.  I was happy to see a lot of teams move between E1 and E2 and what I believe will happen is that we’ll have a more entertaining playoff series then we’ve had in recent years.  ORSA was one team where I thought the committee really took their time to analyze a team that was far from perfect but had a decent resume and has shown good results thus far.  Ducks are also an example of intelligent and measured analysis. I expected them to be a high seed E2 playoff team and that’s where they were seeded.

 

Where the Committee was Wrong

I think Number Juan was rewarded for having an easy schedule. Their second half of the season as brutal and they went 6-4 despite having the easiest schedule in division E.  Los Avocados were ranked a little low in my opinion.  I had them ranked as the number 1 team.  It does seem that the committee was more impressed with teams competing in E1 than E2 which is somewhat disappointing.  EZW was a clear E1 team to me but the committee instead has placed them as the top seed in E1.  We’ll see if their path to the finals is as easy as I believe it to be.

 

Playoff Overview

I hate predictions; so I predicted every game!  This is because I clearly don’t mind contradictions.  I’ve included some rationale but media pundits in FPF and elsewhere don’t actually know anything.  Cheers to not knowing!

 

Division E1

 

#1 Glogang vs. #16 Bulldogs

In order for Bulldogs to have a chance they will need to limit the deep ball from Arno Desjardins. They had 15 combined interceptions on the season and Bulldogs main rushers Jared Boidman and Noah Mendelson combined for 5 sacks on the season.  They will need to be at their best as Desjardins is mobile and has the best arm in the division bar none.  For Glogang, they are a great team but at times their receivers can look average.  Sifax Kaced will need to step it up and I believe he will.

 

Prediction: Glogang 31- Bulldogs 19

 

#2 The U vs. # 15 Savages 

Savages are a better team than expected but this is an awful first round matchup.  Savages will gain confidence early as I expect The u to take a drive to learn David Lombart’s tendencies. Ryan Vanslet is the best receiver in the division and for all the U’s intelligent play they will not have a player who can truly shut him down.  Vanslet will score in this game.  However, I don’t think that Savages will have much else. Expect The U’s Kyle Pedvis and Mikey Schwartz to cut down receivers in the flats.

 

Prediction: The U 25- Savages 13

 

#3 Clinkers vs. #14 Underdogs

Clinkers offence is aggressive and Marc-Andre Desaulniers will likely have room to work down field.  I don’t think Underdogs have the personnel to do what it takes to slow the Clinkers offence.  They need to play high and low on Luis Begin and dedicate a player to stop Francois Martin.  Even then, Underdogs will need to be effective on offence because I don’t think they will get many stops. Brett Rosenberg is very effective at attacking the back of the end zone so if Clinkers stay in lanes Underdogs will frustrate Clinkers all game long.

 

Prediction: Clinkers 39-Underdogs 31

 

#4 Los Avocados vs. #13 Bruins

As mush as I believed Los Avocados were the best team in Division E, I don’t think they’re infallible.  Their defence is soft in the flats and they can be challenged to make tackles in space.  Unfortunately for them this is what the Bruins do best.  They don’t ever feel the need to take big shots down field. A lot of attention will be directed toward Zach Zwirn.  However, I believe this will be a big game for Antoine Hyunh and Alexandre St.Arnaud.  I think it’s in the Avocados DNA to not play agressively on defence for fear of the deep ball and that will hurt them in this game.  If Los Avocados want to keep Gabriel Wiseman from extending plays, Thomas Zorko will need to rush.  Let’s see if he does what’s best for the team.

 

Prediction: Bruins 26-Los Avocados 24

 

#5 Rancerz vs. #12 Los Banditos

If you’re unlike me and you like defence.  This game is for you.  Maxime Ledoux is a great rusher and Jeremie Ledoux and Riccardo Desrosiers are ball hawks that will give Francis Desrochers issues.  Los Banditos have not been the most effective offers and I think they will be more a victim of stalled drives than turnovers.  Rancerz have shown that they can keep up in and win ugly games.  Close wins against Grinders and Clinkers come to mind.  For Los Banditos their go to guy is and always has been Vincent Benjamin.  They will need to get him going in order to expect victory.

 

Predictions: Rancerz 20-Los Banditos 19

 

#6 Guardians vs. #11 Fighting Flamingos

I love forming rivalries against teams.  It makes the job more interesting.  This is a matchup between the mooooooooo and the Hawaiian shirt wearing mf’er.  Both are inside jokes that I won’t bother explaining here so please feel free to inquire.  This is year one in the Fighting Flamingos rebuild. Drew Keiller has been solid if unspectacular.  The issue is that he may need to be spectacular if he expects to beat Guardians high powered offense. Miles Keiller and Brandon Keiller scored a combined 26 touchdowns on the season.  They will score in this game but it likely won’t be enough.  Fighting Flamingos know that on defence the need to key on Etienne Vaillancourt and Kevin Marcil.  Guardians quarterback needs Pat St.Amand needs to take what’s there in front of him and not insist on taking deep shots all game.  If he does this Guardians will be victorious.

 

Prediction: Guardians 33-Fighting Flamingos 27

 

#7 Pension Plan vs. # 10 One Speed: Power

This game features lots of old guys and not enough fast guys.  Don’t watch this game if you can help it.  The only benefit is that the game is at 5:00 pm so Vince Pisano and I can take advantage of early bird specials.

 

Prediction: Pick ‘em

 

#8 ORSA vs. #9 Vultures

ORSA are a fun and exciting team. They’re beating Guardians in week 10 means they can beat some of the established teams in division E.  It’s a good sign moving forward and Antonio Spezia has a wide array of receivers to work with.  The key will be how Benjamin McMahon can contain Spezia. His lack of height does worry me in this game as Spezia looks to deliver short passes as he rolls to one side or the other. Andel Thomas Gordon and Gary McMahon need to be aggressive in the flats on defence and prevent the quick dump-offs.  

 

Prediction: Vulture 26-ORSA 25

 

 

Division E2

 

#1 EZW vs. #16 Sandbaggers

This is the best possible seeding for EZW.  Sandbaggers are strong and are actually not entirely incompetent on offense.  I feel like they will score as the place to attack EZW is with midrange passes (10-12 yards) and this is what the Sandbaggers offence does well.  Tyler Nurse has been decent at rusher but I think Olivier Goddard would be a better presence to rush Jeremy White.  The key for EZW is always how involved Charles-Olivier Lavinge is.  He is a dynamic receiver who will likely say up the overly passive Sandbagger defense.  

 

Prediction: EZW 46- Sandbaggers 19

 

#2 Ducks vs. #15 Les Amateurs des Sacks

The addition of Mat Domon has done the Ducks well.  Renaud and Julien St.Laurent have had very good seasons and are strong contributing members on offense.  However, I’m surprised at every turn that Martin Jackson and Karim Sy-Morissette have not be more involved. Yet, the guy to watch for Les Amateurs des Sacks is Alexandre Croteau who was a revelation this season for the Ducks. For a team that allegedly loves sacks, Les Amateurs des Sacks don’t seem to fit the part.  They recorded 5 sacks all season and their leading sack getter was Vincent Fournier-Landry who had 2 sacks.  This won’t be enough pressure to stop Mat Domon.  On offence they’ll need to rely heavily on Vincent Deschateles but it likely won’t be enough to push them beyond the first round.

 

Prediction: Ducks 25- Les Amateurs Des Sacks 6

 

#3 Number Juan vs. #14 The Replacements

I am truly surprised that Number Juan were not a lower seed.  This is an interesting team with a lot of potential but each time they faced a tough task this season, they failed to answer the call. Number Juan lost to Zone 6 Ballers, Average Joe’s, One Speed Power and Underdogs.  Half of those teams moved into the E1 playoff bracket.  While they won’t have to face them again, there are no easy matchups in the playoffs.  With P-O Belanger not eligible for the playoffs, leading receiver David Di Paola will need to shoulder the load.  It seems as though the team is rotating between Marc-Andre Senecal and Mat Leblanc at quarterback and the first week of the playoffs is usually a difficult time to make roster moves as important as deciding on a quarterback.  A low scoring game favours Replacements and that’s the kind of game I think this will be.  The Replacements defence is adept at taking away the big play and Marco Mallozzi will be pivotal as his strong pass rush will need to keep this game low scoring enough to keep Frank Teoli-Colatrella from letting the game slip away.  Look for Robert De Ielsi to have at least one score in this game.

 

Prediction: The Replacements 12- Number Juan 7

 

#4 Zone 6 Ballers vs. #13 Grinders

The thing we said all season long is that Grinders are not as bad as their record would indicate.   I firmly believe this to be the case. Having to beat Dude Where’s the Endzone in week 10 to earn a playoff spot.  They brought in Mathieu Martel who will not be playoff eligible.  However, the last time Grinders lost by more than a score was in week 2 against Los Banditos.  The concern is the scoring,  While Benjamin Reid did throw for 4 touchdowns four times during the season, he threw for a single TD in 5 games.  This amount of variance is terrifying.  Zone 6 Ballers have struggled with their identity.  However, having made the switch to Alessandro Barazzoni from Jeansley Valbonard at quarterback truly weakens them as a roster.  It has worked in small sample sizes but I do believe this will catch up with Z6B.  Nicholas Gomes-Risso and Kurt Seguin have combined for 19 touchdowns and they will need to truly be number one and two receivers with their best receiver behind centre.

 

Prediction: Grinders 23- Zone 6 Ballers 21

 

#5 Average Joes vs. #12 XD

Average Joe’s seemed to right the ship after having a troubling section of their schedule. Quarterbacks Marc Bellinelli and Jesse St.James have proven to protect the ball.  They are a team with a lot of competent, sure handed players.  What Average Joe’s lack is overall team speed.  They have done well against teams who are not better athletes.  XD has speed to burn whether it’s Derek Sigler, Matt Gottleib or the now playoff eligible Zak Sigler. I believe average Joe’s will struggle with XD in coverage.

 

Prediction: XD 27- Average Joes 13

 

#6 Broken Ankles vs. #11 Jean Guy

The most interesting matchup in this game is between rusher Simon Laporte of Jean Guy and mobile Broken Ankles QB Jonathan Lemieux.  Simon Laporte will need to force turnovers in order for this to truly be a game. They had 13 interceptions this season so this has worked for them with Jonathan Brule and Frederique Meunier lading the team with 3 interceptions each. The Key to beating Jean Guy of course is to take away Emile Lamy as he accounted for 38% of the teams catches this season.  Broken Ankles had an intelligent defence and I think they may move defensive stalwart JD Joly to shadow him.

 

Predictions: Broken Ankles 33- Jean Guy 18

 

#7 Loyola’s Finest vs #10 Degenosaurus Rex

What’s interesting is how Sean Martin has taken to the Foti Evangelista coached, Joey Taylor inspired offence.  Degenosaurus Rex have vastly improved and since Kyle Monat failed to qualify for the playoffs.  Andrew Di Miele, Massimo Cannucci and Nicholas Borelli will need to be the ones in the foreground this week.  I also notice a 5 in the GP column for Joey “TayTay” Taylor.  If Tay Tay can play this game, he should play the game as he is an outstanding FPF player. Loyola’s Finest have been uneven.  Since their week 8 loss to Fighting Flmaingos they have looked great.  The two headed quarterback monster of George Spano and Mike Cerulli have leaned more toward Spano and I believe that that is the best option moving forward. Nick Lombardi is one of the best two way players in the division and I expect him to have an impact in this game.

 

Prediction: Loyola’s Finest 20-Degenosaurus Rex 13

 

#8 A-Side vs. #9 Brewers

I couldn’t be prouder of Brewers.  They took their lumps in the winter season but definitely improved and now have earned a playoff seed in their second season.  They will learn however that the playoffs in FPF are a raised level of intensity and attention to details.  Dight Browne is a game breaker and despite only playing 5 game I am certain Brewers are doing all they can to ensure he’ll be at this game.  If he’s not there a lot will rest on the sure hands of Eric Pawlusiak who is the team’s leading receiver.  The receivers to watch for on A-Side are Brendan Sabloff and Justin Santillo.  They are who pose the greatest threat and will definitely attract the most attention.  This was a lacklustre season for A-Side but they are coming into the playoffs hot (having won 3 straight).  Raphael Levy was throwing for two of those games but this team will probably be in just as solid hands with Jared Buck at the pivot.  A-Side is not without their flaws but they did draw a favourable matchup in the first round.

 

Prediction: A-Side 34- Brewers 12

 

Sunday’s Spectacular Splendor

For further info on this division and the rest of the league feel free to tune into Calling the Audible where Moe Khan, Simon Dagenais, Eagle at Master Control and GM Koletheras will be GM’s hangover, Tiger Woods at The Open and why blimps need more love. 

Tune in to the Facebook Live to join the show or to see us on You Tube or download us wherever you get your podcasts.  Good luck everyone!  Please feel free to reach me @peezefpf on twitter or @ Peeze Della Reeze on Facebook to let me know about the various ways in which I was wrong.