D3 Stew: Root for the Underdog, Buy the Favorites

D3 Stew: Root for the Underdog, Buy the Favorites

They say that although we like to be identified with picking winners (the favorites), we continue to root for the underdogs because we see them as needing to work much harder for the win. Thus the idea of the scrappy team is that they are more deserving than the odds-on favorite.

It’s a sort of risk mitigation, because of two possible losers, the favorite and the underdog, at least by rooting for the underdog you would have the added satisfaction of rooting for the team that was more deserving. It’s like emotional candy to root for the team that technically should lose. The high you get from them winning is also so much greater.

However, when it comes to the important things in life, like buying a car or choosing a prime minister, we tend to revert to the favorites because the cost of losing is just too great. Group dynamics also come into play at this level when your decisions impact multiple people. There’s a much greater moral appeal to make the “right” choice that will benefit the group, which at face value often skews towards the favorite.  

So while in sports it may be fun to bet some value on the underdogs, when the cost of losing isn’t great, in the real world we often don’t have that luxury.

Rest assured, next time Laval’s Finest play against Top Sauce, I’ll keep rooting for the Sauce but my pick will be on the 450.  

Have a great week 6 everybody. Let’s hope the week off doesn’t bring us too much rust.

 

*By the way, the title and the idea for this intro were inspired by an excellent article from Stephen L. Carter in Bloomberg last week.

You can find a link to the full article here: https://bloom.bg/2o0Y5NU

 

 

 

Highlights:

 

5 Dawgs bag 6 Skins

The Bearskins faced off against the winless Dirty Dawgs at Hebert this past Monday in a game that figured to be a fairly straightforward script between two teams trending in opposite directions. As has been the case whenever we think to have anything pinned down in division 3 this winter, spectators of this game were in for an incredible surprise.

The game began in anticipated fashion, with the Dawgs turning it over on downs and the Bearskins making them pay with a quick TD to Marco Bertoldi.

On third down of the following drive Ryan Lelinowski launched a comeback to his receiver down the right sideline. Bertoldi sniffed out the play and jumped the pass for an INT.

Neil Etinson promptly positioned his Bearskins in their opponent’s redzone and hit Guillaume Bourassa on the back-in for the score. It was quickly 13-0 Bearskins before anyone broke a sweat.

The Dawgs were determined not to be pushovers on this night and began marching with authority. Lelinowski found some success working the short-to-intermediate level routes against the Bearskins placid defense. Once they reached midfield he sprung snapper Sahar Cohen loose on a beautiful touch pass to the corner for the score.

In the midst of the touchdown and extra-point convert there was some commotion between head referee Steve Hodhod and the Dawgs Yossi Cohen; resulting in Cohen getting tossed from the game. I don’t know what was said in the trenches between player and referee, but Cohen said some pretty unsavory and hateful things to Hodhod as he was being ushered off the field.

The end result was that Cohen’s case will now likely merit review from the disciplinary committee, and the Dawgs were down to 5 players for the remainder of the game. 

However, as the old cliché goes, it’s not the amount of Dawgs in the fight that counts, but the amount of fight in the Dawgs. This scrappy group had plenty left in the tank.

Seemingly unperturbed by the dismissal for their 6th man, the Dawgs came out of their defensive huddle with a newfound edge. They began taking chances that they wouldn’t have taken before. With 4 plays left in the half and the Skins threatening at their doorstep, Lewinowski jumped a hook route in the endzone and returned it all the way to the opponent’s 15.

A beautiful comeback by Chitayat positioned the Dawgs at the 1 yard line. With 1 play remaining Lewinowski set up a rub play and hit his snapper underneath for the score. A successful convert to Chitayat would send the game into the half tied at 13-13.

The Skins continued to look tense on offense after the break. On their first two drives they had to rely on fourth down conversions in their own zone to stay alive. However, they managed to emerge unscathed, as both drives ended up in TDs on wheel routes; the first to Kevin Libman and the second to Bertoldi.

Amazingly, the Dawgs offense was still firing on all cylinders. Eli Saleh was gashing the middle of the field with slant routes. Chitayat finished the first drive with a TD along the back of the endzone, and Cal Pienaar burned Bourassa on a marvelous stop-and-go to tie the game at 26 on the next drive

With only a handful of minutes left in the game and the ability to do whatever they wanted on offense, the Bearskins could have controlled the clock and punched in the winning score. Instead, Etinson went for it all early, hitting Bertoldi on a deep post route. Chitayat made a diving attempt to break up the pass but fell just short, leaving Bertoldi to stroll into the endzone for the 6 point lead. A failed convert gave the Dawgs a chance to do the unthinkable, steal the game with 5 guys.

The Dawgs went to their bread-and-butter play to get into favorable position. Lewinowski loaded up and fired a perfectly placed comeback route down the left sideline for Chitayat, who showed incredible focus in holding onto the ball while securing both feet in bounds.

With 6 plays left the Dawgs were in Skins territory, looking to finish off the comeback. But the Skins would not give in easily. Using their extra player to their advantage, they began playing a stingy zone with Bertoldi shadowing Chitayat.

The Dawgs completed a few short passes but couldn’t shake the added defender for the score. They found themselves at the 1 yard line with 1 play left, a fitting ending for such a highly improbable game.  

By now the majority of the spectators had figured out what was happening, and had huddled closely around the boundaries eager for the dramatic finish.

The past two plays had seen Lewinowski line up his receivers in trips on the left side, and motion Chitayat over to the right for the iso. They repeated the alignment on the final play, except Betoldi motioned over on defense stride-for-stride with Chitayat, causing Lewinowski to wisely take his final timeout

Coming out of the break they lined up in the same formation, but this time there would be no motion. The Dawgs quickly snapped the ball and Chitayat broke out under the rubs, creating just enough of a window for his QB to thread the ball through for the score.

Chitayat lined up at left wide for the extra point. Everyone in the room knew where the ball was going. He fake jab stepped inside before sledding back out around his defender to the back pylon. Lewinowski laid a perfect touch pass to the spot of his receiver. Chitayat went up, uncontested, and reeled-in the game winning convert.  

The Dawgs deservedly celebrated after pulling off one of the most remarkable feats in FPF. Their offense has been humming for a few weeks now and this sort of game could be the launching point for a second half run.

 

 

Lost in the sauce

“If a man does not have sauce then he is lost. But that same man can also get lost in the sauce.” – Gucci Mane

Wise words to chew on from one of the great modern day philosophers as we embarked on the game of the week in division 3.

The major storyline heading into this one was the battle of the undefeated in conference B. Top Sauce came bursting into the game, but their lack of quality opponents understandably had many pausing before jumping on their bandwagon. Laval’s Finest, on the other hand, was quietly cruising along and taking care of business. Their lack of competition in recent weeks may have momentarily been misconstrued as nonchalance, but this team was filthy.

The game started off with a bang, with Chris Milard sacking Dylan Taylor for a healthy loss. But the wily gunslinger wasn’t tripped up. He got the yards back on the next play, cutting the field in half with a post to Rod Mashtoub. A few plays later he sprung his snapper Theo Bekelis on a creative sluggle up the middle for the score.

Top Sauce’s offense took the field looking to respond. They comfortably marched down field with short passes, capping off the drive with a 7 yard score to Justin McLean. It would be the only comfort their offense would obtain on the night.

Taylor continued to masterfully execute his space-creating offense, looking off Mashtoub on the seam route before hitting a streaking Zach Zwirn down the right sideline for the score.

Laval’s defensive manhandling would begin on the following drive, with Nick Bekelis coming up with a huge sack on second down. A third down PAT from Theo Giannikos put Top Sauce in a precarious 4th and 15 situation. They elected to punt the ball away.

Experienced gunslingers like Taylor live for these moments, and Laval’s offense came out eager to deliver a devastating blow early. Taylor caught McLean trailing in coverage and delivered a strike to Jamie Ojeaha on the post route for the score.

If Top Sauce had any hope of hanging around they needed to score on this next drive. Vince Nardone manoeuvered his team into position with a nice lob above the rim to his big man Rob Allen. However, on first and goal Laval’s defense clamped down and decided no Sauce shall pass. Physical middle defender Januson Vas blew up a slant route on first down. On third down the criminally underrated John Koutris blanketed McLean and smacked the pass away. With the game basically on the line on fourth down, Nardone scrambled left but quickly ran out of real estate. He launched a prayer to the back of the endzone, but none of his players could answer it as it landed on the turf for the turnover.

With 6 plays left before half, the red hot Laval team could ice it before water break. Mashtoub was once again the target over the middle of the field on first down. It was like apple picking for Taylor, as his vertical plays spread the Top Sauce D out thin and exposed them at the seams. Two proceeding deep shots came up just short of their intended targets, finally presenting Top Sauce with an opportunity to make an impact play on fourth down.

Taylor was flushed out of the pocket by Milard and forced to heave a prayer in the direction of Zwirn into tight coverage. The venerable Allen came swooping in but just missed the pat down by inches, leaving Zwirn to gleefully reel in the score on the second last play of the half.

The second half saw more of the same misery for Top sauce, while Laval took their foot off the gas and coasted to the win. As is often the case when two undefeated teams meet up, one of them ended up getting blown out, with a final score of 32-6.

Laval secured the top spot in the power rankings and gave everyone a taste of their latent strength. Top Sauce will continue searching for their first big win of the year, with a chance to redeem themselves this week against a Sean Avraam-less Dad Bods. The hierarchy in Div B has been settled, for now.

 

 

 

 

 The Jamie Bowl

The penultimate week of the fantasy football regular season. Our incumbents clamor for one of the 4 coveted playoff spots. The competition is getting fierce, as our contestants are starting to reach deep into their repertoires to draw the talent that will propel them into the second season.

After this week, there will be only 1 game left for our fearless competitors to claim a playoff spot!

 

Week 4

Match 1

Position	Historian’s Hawks		Dr. Mantis
QB	Alex Lever		Phil Cutler
WR	Carmine Pollice		Chris Valentine
WR	Francois Deslauriers		Sean Brophy
2WAY	Dom Benevento		Adrien Kellman
2WAY	Robbi Dejean		Chris Millard
DEF	Hometown Heroes		QB Movement

 

Match 2

Position	Commish has Fallen		Panda Panda!
QB	Alex Holowach		Simon Dagenais
WR	Dave Chitayat		Joseph Sifakis
WR	Justin Cerantola		Hinsley Adams
2WAY	Jamal Gittens		Dom Benevento
2WAY	Travis Moses		AJ Gomes
DEF	Hometown Heroes		Lightweight

 

Match 3

Position	Dropkick Terries		Bullet Club
QB	Dylan Taylor		Erminio Iadeluca
WR	Vinny Gualano		Robbi Dejean
WR	Jamal Gittens		Carmine Pollice
2WAY	Francois Deslauriers		AJ Gomes
2WAY	Daniel Mancini		Quasai Gordon-Maule
DEF	Hometown Heroes		Brotherhood

 

Standings

Standings	Wins	Loss	PF
The Dropkick Terries	2	1	406,86
Bullet Club	2	1	382,52
Panada Panda!	2	1	343,52
Commission Has Fallen	1	2	370,8
Dr. Mantis Tobbogan	1	2	360,58
Historian’s Hawks	1	2	345

 

 

 

 

Predictions

I tried to be a bit too cute last week with my picks and paid the price going 1-2, brining my season record to 18-11 (62.1%).

This week I’m going to reel it in a bit, and let the favorites do the talking.

 

JYD                                                      Dirty Dawgs       

Battle of the DOGS. I just saw the Dawgs pull off the upset of the year, so I should really ride the heat wave going into a matchup against a struggling opponent. JYD’s defense has been a mess since the beginning of the season. They need to do a much better job executing assignments, and should leverage the wisdom of their legendary star player. This game gave me the most difficulty to predict this week. I don’t know who on JYD will attempt to matchup with Chitayat, but he’ll definitely be priority number 1. Despite all the facts, my gut is telling me to side with JYD in this one. It just seems like they need the win more at this point and their experienced leaders should find a way to get it done. Someway, somehow. I also have some lingering roster concerns on the Dawgs side as we await the verdict on last week’s blowup.

DTM                                                   KGP      

This should be a really good game between two offensive juggernauts. I hope so at least, as I’m banking a lot of my fantasy capital on it. DTM are without the HOF Alex Pilon once again, and there are some injury concerns from the rest of their roster. They’ll need to dig deep to muster another gem against a sturdy KGP defense, but Porreca is throwing heat right now. On the other side, KGP offense impressed me last week with Rose at the helm. They didn’t seem to skip a beat and should only get better with Cutler back at Q. KGP edges out the close win in this exciting game.

Lightweight                                      Looney Goonz

Looney Goonz really disappointed me with their no-show last week against R4D. I thought that could be their turning point, but they ended up coming out flat. I can’t take them until I see some renewed fight from their side. Simon Dagenais is too smart of a QB to not figure out their defense quickly in this game. He should find the soft spots and start picking away until the defense unwinds. It seems like everyone is hanging 40 on the Goonz this year so Lightweight shouldn’t be any different.

Maloudes                                          QB Movement

QB movement made a major stride offensively last week against the Dawgs, and will look to replicate that momentum this week against a struggling Maloudes team. The transition to div 3 has not been kind to Maloudes. They drew a ridiculously difficult schedule to begin the year, and I hope that their confidence hasn’t been shot by some early season blow outs. It’ll be interesting to see how much gumption they show against the Movement. They can still change the direction of their fate with a spirited game this week.

Brotherhood                                    R4D

If R4D struggled offensively against a solid Darksiders defense, then they’re in for another level of stifling defense this week. Brotherhood are firing on all cylinders and barring a disrupted roster they should keep the good times going once again. It appears that Ryan Aridi is no longer rushing for R4D, but it will be interesting to see how they respond this week if Ojeaha gives fits to Miron. This might well be one of those matchups where rusher doesn’t make a difference, since Ojeaha is the premier rush breaker at pivot.

Purple Reign                                     Darksiders

Frenemies face off in a battle of familiar teams. Purple Reign has been in neutral for the most part this year. They’ll need to start taking more chances and playing for wins. Darksiders look sluggish so far this year. They have a strong core but lack the depth of the top teams. One of these teams should use this game as a springboard to launch an extended run.

ODBs                                                  Hometown Heroes

ODBs impressed last week against Purple Reign but they had some fancy replacement players and it remains difficult to predict who will be on the roster sheet for them this week. The safe bet here is the red hot heroes. They run a tricky offense and should find some success with their speed against the ODBs physical man defense.

2HD                                                    Laval’s Finest

I won’t get too cute this week and try to pick against the powerhouse team in div 3. 2HD has been playing stingy defense as of late, but the Laval offense is incredibly potent and is built to pick apart weaknesses. 2HD offense will need to be nearly flawless to keep up with their opponents stride for stride. I think that the Laval defense knows the JT offense well enough to muster a few tough stops in this game.

Dad Bods                                           Top Sauce

No Sean Avraam this week will have the Bods turning to the veteran Rich Humes at the helm for this significant game. You couldn’t ask for more of a quality backup at this level. But I’m worried that the combination of rust and a stifling Top Sauce defensive lineup will halt the Bods offensive plans. Chris Milard rushing Humes will be the key matchup to watch. Also, I wonder if the Bods can matchup with the pure size of the Top Sauce offense. Allen, McLean and Milard can all play above the rim. Dad Bods are more like finger roll guys than jams.

Bearskins                                           LGM     

The most interesing game of the week in my opinion. Despite looking vulnerable lately, the Bearskins represent a key measuring point in division 3. LGM have been a trending team in recent weeks and are playing really good ball. If they can defeat the Skins they’ll further establish themselves as a legit presence in the division. If Robbi Dejean is back it will be difficult for the Skins defense to measure up to Lever and all his weapons. 

 

 

That’s it for this week! Week 5 of FPF is officially in the books, and our week 6 is set to start up soon. If you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can reach out to me @alexholowach1 on Twitter, or hit me up on Facebook. If you’re craving more div 3 content please check out the Calling the Audible podcast featuring Moe Khan, Peeze and Simom, it’s a healthy dose of absurdity to get you through the week. Thanks for taking the time to read this, and make sure to check back next week to find out how week 6 shook out!