Playing For Keeps: Opening Round
24-07-2017 12:00 AM
The playoff race went down to the wire this week, with 3 teams vying for the final position in conference A. The Blue Chips started the week off with a win over Smash Bros, momentarily securing themselves the coveted 6th position. HFTH then followed suit by squeaking out a win vs Going Deep, and knocking off Blue Chips. With Peeze and I watching from the sidelines as NoName and Commission went down to the wire…NoName marched the field with conviction on the final drive and punched in the winning TD. Congrats to all three team who made the playoff race so scintillating down to the wire, and did all they could do in week 10. NoName advances as the red hot 6th seed in conference A.
In conference B, FiLP made an inspired comeback against a Neil Etinson-less Bearskins and secured their 5th spot for the playoffs. Red wave and Nuggets then became a battle of win-and-you’re-in, with the loser heading to the golf links as consolation. Red Wave controlled the tempo of the game and sealed their passage to the playoffs with the victory.
With all the playoff matches set to go in a few hours, join me as we take a deeper dive into each individual matchup, and see who has the edge in the first round.
This is Playing For Keeps: Week 10 edition.
Games of the week:
Smash Bros (4th) vs Friends in Low Places (5th)
Previous Encounter: (Week 8) 24-22 Smash Bros
QB: Jonah Cohen vs Danny D’Amour
Both quarterbacks have had success in lower divisions in the past. Both have experienced their share of struggles in a tough div C this spring. However, over the course of the second half of the season D’Amour has limited his turnovers to 3 INTs, while Cohen has quadrupled those numbers with 12 INTs. Come playoff time, protecting the ball and managing field position is monumental. In a one-and-done scenario I’ll take the QB who’s demonstrated a better ability to read the field and limit risk.
Receivers: Smash Bros vs Friends in Low Places (Draw)
Partially due to inconsistent quarterbacking this season, neither team has produced anything near a true number one All Star caliber receiving threat. Justin Lerner and Jonathan Garfinkle are burgeoning talents in this league, with the capability to take over games individually, but they only average about 2 catches per game each, far from dominant receiver territory. Perhaps Joseph Kano has been the most reliable receiver for them this season, but even he averages less than 3 receptions per game. None of the three average mind blowing yards/catch to make up for their low reception totals.
The narrative is similar on the FiLP side. The loss of Kevin Smuda at the beginning of the season created a major opportunity for someone else on the staff to step up in a huge way. That hasn’t happened yet. Brenden Sabloff and Michael Timmis are the major chain movers for this unit, reeling in about 4 catches each per game. But neither of them have produced truly impressive Yards or TD totals this season. Justin Santillo was their top TD threat for the large part of the season, but he’s now off on vacation for the remainder of the season. Perhaps Jared Buck will step up as the finisher for this team around the red zone. He’s come on strong in the past few weeks, but also hasn’t yet shown the consistency to be truly labelled a number 1 receiver.
Defense: Smash Bros vs FiLP
This one wasn’t much of a contest. Smash Bros have been one of the most dominant defenses in the division this season, ranking third in points allowed. Their defensive success has been a true revelation and caught everyone off guard. Garfinkle and Lindor are the headliners, combining for 58 tackles, 4 INTs and 8 PDs. Kyle Pedvis and Justin Lerner shore up the unit with athleticism and field awareness. The X-factor on this unit is Kevin Felima. With 3 INTs in 6 games, his presence may go a long way in titling the momentum of this game. One major caveat however, rusher extraordinaire Vladimir Pirrus is out with a season ending injury and his 10 sacks will need to be picked up by someone else on the roster.
On the FiLP side it’s largely the Danny D’Amour show. Intelligent offenses have adapted to the lack of depth on this unit and have avoided him when possible. Alex Grey has been an excellent deputy this season, flying around the field and breaking up passes even if it means putting his body at jeopardy. He is the true unsung hero of this defense. Other than that, it gets a little thin. FiLP work well as a cohesive unit, trusting each other and relying on the chemistry they’ve built over the years. But they still lack a few defensive playmakers in this division.
X-Factor: FiLP
The major matchup that I’m looking at in this game is Danny D’Amour vs whoever will replace Pirrus at rusher. With only 8 playoff eligible players on the roster, they will be a maximum of 7 if Pirrus is unable to suit up. Whoever steps up to rush will leave a hole on defense that can be exploited by FiLP if they gameplan effectively.
Prediction: 33 – 25 FiLP
Junkyard Dogs (3rd) vs NoName (6th)
Previous Encounter: (Week 1) 25-0 JYD
QB: Jason Rossie vs Kristian Cerantola
Throw out the week 1 encounter, as that game was prior to the arrival of Cerantola and Jonathan Grizzley for NoName, when they averaged a whopping 3.5 points scored per game. This time around we’ll see a much more formidable QB matchup, with two veteran gunslingers taking aim at each other for the right to the second round.
Rossie had a solid season for JYD this year, with numbers good enough to make Simon Dagenais an All Star in div B. What he lacked in efficiency he made up for in total volume, and points on the scoreboard win games at the end of the day. He’s coming into the playoffs hot, averaging 5 TDs per game over the last four, which should be enough to win in this division on most weeks.
On the other side is the sometimes erratic, sometimes unstoppable Cerantola. There’s no QB in this division who’s as mercurial as he is. His weekly swings in performance made him completely unpredictable. He can light up any defense in the division with his unique ability to throw rockets and juke rushers, like he did in week 10 vs Commission on the biggest stage of the year. Alternatively, he can put up a dud and beat himself into submission on any given week as well, as he’s often heard yelling at himself after missed plays.
Of the two, Cerantola possesses the higher ceiling, but Rossie possesses the higher floor. With such a tough team behind him, I expect Rossie to put up a solid and composed performance in this one, which should be enough to get the win.
Receivers: JYD vs NoName
The quality and the depth of the receiving staff for JYD should be overwhelming for the NoName defense to account for. Between Jacob Bernett, Alexandre Noel and Carmine Pollice they can strike at any level of the field. Rossie does a good job utilizing each player’s unique skill set, creating mismatches at all times across the board.
The NoName receiving core is largely the Jonathan Grizzley show. He’s as explosive as it gets at receiver, forcing you to respect his ability to take the top off the defense. However, NoName’s ability to remain competitive in this game will fall squarely on the ability of the other receivers to step up and help exploit the holes left open by double teaming Grizzley. Hinsley Adams is the X-factor here. He runs silky smooth patterns, and similar to Grizzley, he’s capable of beating you over the top on any given play. If he has another big game like he did in week 10 vs Commission, NoName will have more than a slugger’s chance tonight.
Defense: JYD vs NoName
Grizzley is the best defensive player in this game, but once again, the JYD unit is just too complete and well-rounded to yield the upper hand. JYD does a good job maintaining their zones and using their size to take away space on the field. Cerantola and his 50% completion percentage on the season should have an even tougher time finding the holes in this tight zone coverage. If you force the ball into their zone they will pick it off, often.
X-Factor: NoName
After all that has been said about both these teams above, NoName still have the QB with the greater potential to go off and light up the scoreboard, and they also have the most talented two-way player in this game. Furthermore, the lack of rushing stats for JYD concerns me. If you can’t put pressure on Cerantola, he will get into rhythm and be a much more effective passer. I think this game remains close despite the significant roster advantage for JYD.
Prediction: 26 – 24 JYD
Impeccable D (3rd) vs Red Wave (6th)
Previous Encounter: (Week 3) 20-19 Impeccable D
QB: Jeff Rosenblatt vs Mario Porreca
As the recent Simon Dagenais All Star selection has demonstrated, we can’t always use statistics as the sole determinant in judging performance. This matchup demonstrates that argument perfectly. Rosenblatt had a marvelous season in div C, arguable the runner up for QBOY. However, Porreca is coming into the playoffs red hot, lighting up defenses in a tougher div B. In a one off showdown, I can see Porreca and his cannon arm having a greater chance to put up a big game. Rosenblatt is a crafty vet, however, and will find a way to march the ball down field.
Receivers: Impeccable D vs Red Wave (Draw)
Impeccable D’s receiving corps attacks like a swarm. They have so much depth and diverse talent that they can strike at any time at all level of the field.
Red Wave’s big 3 may be the best receiving trio in the division, it will be practically impossible to limit all of them simultaneously and all it takes is one mismatch to be exploited for a TD.
This is truly a coin flip. The best positional battle of the first round.
Defense: Impeccable D vs Red Wave
Impeccable D have yielded 43 fewer points than Red Wave this season; however, the Red Wave machine have a whopping 19 INTs, 25 PDs, and 4 defensive TDs. Loïc Robidoux is the X-factor for this team. With QBs trying their best to avoid the Red Wave Big 3, Robidoux fly’s under the radar and makes you pay for trying to pick on him. Expect a tough 4-1 zone from red wave to start, with plenty of shoots throughout the game to mix up Rosenblatt’s reads.
That’s not to say Impeccable D is slouching defensively. Similar to their offense, this unit is so well-balanced that they create a whole that’s greater than the sum of their parts. They are comprised of guys who play with a lot of passion and pride, and won’t back down to any opponent. When looking at the individual matchups in this game, however, I can’t see how they will account for the big play ability of the Red Wave receivers. It all comes down to Porreca. If he’s hot he can split this defense open and take what he wants. If he’s a step behind in his reads, the Big D will swarm.
X-Factor: Red Wave
Red wave possess the ability to score in bunches. Impeccable D play a composed game and wait for their opportunities to strike. I think Red wave will force the issue in this game and make Impeccable D play outside their comfort zone. Advantage to Big Red.
Prediction: 34 – 18 Red Wave
Jagerbomb (4th) vs Show Me Your TDs (5th)
Previous Encounter: (Week 10) 22-19 Jagerbomb
QB: Simon Duchesne vs Jesse Dupuis
Duchesne is a polished and accomplished quarterback in this league, with several successful seasons under his belt and a track record of playoff success. Dupuis is like the up and coming prize fighter. He has a small sample size but so far has knocked out everyone in his way. I give the nod to Duchesne because of the experience he has with the receivers on his roster. Dupuis is definitely a guy that you can’t gameplan against. His unique duel threat style keeps defenses guessing. If he gets hot early on he could definitely win the upper hand throughout the game.
Receivers: Jagerbomb vs SMYTD
It’s a shame for Jagerbomb that they will not have access to the full potential of their receiving staff, or this battle would be much more difficult to decide. Felix Fontaine-Larouche, who was arguably the top receiver in this division at the mid-way point, is gone for the season and leaves a great void in his departure. In to that void steps the reliable Jean-Felix Daloze, who really picked up the slack once their top threat departed. This is a balanced receiving staff that relies on everyone’s contributions to succeed. They’ll need to all chip in a little extra this week if they want to accomplish the enormous task of knocking off SMYTD.
On the SMYTD side the wealth of receivers is ridiculous. Roster inconsistencies have been a major concern, but if everyone is available tonight this staff will be filthy. Alexis Gaumont is the top threat in this lineup. He’s a monster on the outside with gamebreaking skills and the ability to play above the rim. Julien Bellavance and Mendy Cardichon are excellent supporting stars if they’re both in uniform. These guys could both be number 1 receivers on different teams. Finally, you can’t forget about Alex David at snapper, the most reliable receiver this year when the team needs crucial conversions. They are far too talented to contend with when rolling on all cylinders.
Defense: Jagerbomb vs SMYTD
Jagerbomb are one of those teams that excels better as a whole than the sum of their parts. Jean-Felix Daloze and Karl Forgues are the certified stoppers on this squad, and they rely on an outstanding rush from the veteran Francois Hogue. Other than that, if you come in with a solid gameplan and execute with discipline, you will certainly have your opportunities to pick Jagerbomb apart. They play a bend-don’t-break style of defense that preys on undisciplined QBs forcing shots. I have a hard time believing SMYTDs will allow Dupuis to venture too far off the gameplan tonight in this encounter.
For my money, SMYTD have been the most impressive defense in the division this season. For several weeks in the middle of the season they were able to rise above the injury of their starting QB and win purely on defensive merit. If we’re going to talk about guys that deserve an All Star merit without the stats, then you have to give Eric Cantin a nod of appreciation. He does an incredible job orchestrating the moving pieces of this roster and always throwing a wrench into the opposition’s plan A. Jesse Dupuis is also a one-man wrecking ball on defense. He’s a defensive captain’s dream and can take over games by himself without ever throwing a pass. Jagerbomb will need to advance with extreme caution when approaching this unit.
X-Factor: SMYTD
Jagerbomb will only be 6 players for the encounter tonight. They’ve won with 6 players before in the past, as those 6 guys usually have such a strong connection with each other that they make up for the lack of depth. Tonight will be a different story, as they will match up with a team with such outstanding depth that it will require them to have a perfect game to remain competitive. Jagerbomb have a much smaller margin of error in this game. SMYTD will have to play above average to win, while Jagerbomb will need to be perfect.
Prediction: 31 – 25 SMYTD
Weekly Fantasy Football:
Week 10 (Final)
I got a solid effort from all my guys this week and pulled off the rubber match win to take the series from Danny.
The QBs were the stars of the weekend, as they both had big games for their respective teams when it mattered most. Simon Dagenais is our week 10 fantasy MVP. He had a big second half leading his team to the brink of a playoff berth. Jordan Mitchell didn’t back down in his encounter either, as he put up a masterful performance for the second consecutive week. Too-little-too-late for both these QBs, as their teams fall just short of the playoffs despite the impressive games to end the season.
Although I won the record showdown, Danny won the overall season score. That puts us at 1 win each and will mean the predictions will be the overall tie breaker to see who wins the beautiful, tasty, frosty cold pitcher of beer.
Alex Danny
QB: Jordan Mitchell (29.12) QB: Simon Dagenais (29.68)
WR: Daniel O’Connor (13.9) WR: Kevin Smuda (0)
WR: Jacob Bernett (10.6) WR: Nicolas Saro (13.3)
WR: Justin Lerner (10.4) WR: Vincent Lauzon (18.9)
2W: Vinny Gualano (6.6) 2W: Vince Nardone (7)
DEF: The Commission (15.5) DEF: Nuggets (9)
Final Score: (86.12) Final Score: (77.88)
Final Record: 5-4 Alex
Final Overall Score: (938.80 – 926.52 Danny)
Weekly Awards
QB:
Mario Porreca – Red Wave:
19/28 – 200 yards – 6 TD/1 INT – 113.1 QBR
Huge game by this gunslinger when it mattered most. In a win-and-you’re-in scenario he brought his A game, and elevated his team to the post season.
WR:
Justin Maclean – Royals:
9 catches – 96 yards – 4 TDs
Gentleman, I entreat you, please try to find a more dominant receiver in the game than this guy. I don’t think you can. He makes the spectacular seem routine each week.
DEF:
Marc-Antoine Vallée – SMYTD:
8 Sacks
Truly a spectacular performance, one of the best ever from the rushing position. In fact, it is now tied for the second most sacks in a single game in the history of the league. What’s more, he used it to propel himself to the front of the defensive player of the year race and steal the trophy in the last week. For reference of how great of a season this was for him, he piled up 24 sacks in only 8 games! Slow clap for your DPOY.
2WAY:
Jean-Francois Daloze – Jagerbomb :
5 catches – 56 yards – 2 TDs
2 TKs – 1 INT – 1 PD
Daloze has really stepped up in recent weeks and has put Jagerbomb on his back down the stretch. He’s one of the most under-appreciated two-ways beasts in this division. I love seeing weeks like this when he reminds us why he’s consistently one of the best out there.
Predictions
Just a few weeks ago I was sitting on my rear admiring my lead in the predictions and dreaming of my frosty cold beer from Danny come season’s end. In the classic tale of hubris being the downfall of man, I got complacent and saw my lead dwindle down to nothing. Last week we came in with a stone cold tie, meaning that the winner of the predictions would be the Grand Poohbah of picking games, the holy prognosticator.
Well Danny made the risky plays that paid off and beat me by 2 games this week, taking home the grand prize. I hate him for this but I need him to throw me the ball at receiver so I will forgive him and congratulate him for his victory. Well done Danny, you deserve it. You should have my job next year if you enjoy stroking egos and writing over 3000 words per week on obscure FPF culture.
- Danny (59-29)
- Alex (57-31)
That’s it for this week! Week 10 of FPF is officially in the books, and with it comes the conclusion of another wonderful FPF regular season. See how fast it goes! I’ve truly enjoyed covering your division this season and I hope that I’ve done it justice each week. For all of those who’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, I hope that you continue to tune in to the league because the playoffs will definitely be intense this season. With the FPF Cup on the way, it’s a great opportunity to watch some high caliber ball and gain some insights for the fall season. As always, if you have any feedback, concerns, comments or just want a shoulder to lean on you can reach out to me @alexholowach1 on Twitter, or hit me up on Facebook. If you’re craving more div C content please check out the Calling the Audible podcast featuring GM and Justin, it’s a healthy dose of sophisticated silliness to get you through the week. Thanks for taking the time to read this, and make sure to check back next week to find out how the first week of the playoffs shook out!