2nd-and-Short (Div 4) – Week 6 (Midseason Breakdown I)
18-02-2014 12:00 AM
It’s that time of the year again: time for the midseason breakdown. Or as I like to call it, the week without sleep. With 52 teams, you’ll forgive me if I keep my thoughts on each team brief.
Seeing as the division is set up under a one-conference, four-subdivision system, I’ve decided to merge the East and West subdivisions together in today’s breakdown and will be merging the North and South ones in Thursday’s article, just to spice things up a bit.
Before we move on though, just a note: the following rankings are based on a combination of what I’ve seen, the stats and my own personal gut feeling. If you feel slighted by where I’ve ranked your team, by all means use it as motivation the rest of the season. If you’re happy with where I’ve ranked you, well, just remember that your ranking today doesn’t guarantee you a spot in the playoffs tomorrow. Let’s get to it.
26. Kingdom (0-3-1): A common theme among teams towards the bottom of a division is the lack of a consistent quarterback. It’s one that certainly applies to Kingdom, for whom expected starter Brad Puklicz, who led the team to a 6-4 record with 40 touchdown passes in Division 5 last year, has played just a game and a half so far this year. It’s tough to foresee things getting much better if Puklicz isn’t able to finish out the season.
Prediction: 1-8-1
25. Dragons (1-3): The problem for Dragons isn’t so much quarterback play as a seemingly down season from the receiving corps. The team has been plagued by dropped passes, and that’s never a good sign in a largely passing league. Dragons have shown they can win in years past, finishing 7-3 in Spring 2011 and 6-4 in Spring 2012. For one reason or another, however, the winter seasons haven’t historically been too kind to this long-time group of friends. It appears this season will only continue that trend.
Prediction: 2-8
24. Banana Republicans (1-4): Considering just about everyone on this 11-man roster comes from a different team or has never played in the league, I can’t say I’m surprised to see that they’ve struggled so far. Having a top quarterback can often help hide a team’s lack of chemistry, but Seth Galina, who threw just 13 touchdowns in nine games for a 1-9 Vis Motus team in Winter 2013—his only season as a full-time QB in FPF—simply isn’t one of them yet. If receiver Duraney White continues to take over games as he has so far this team should definitely finish with a few more wins by season’s end, but the key word there is few.
Prediction: 2-8
23. T.C.O. (2-3): Having finished 8-2 and 7-3 in Division D and 5 the last two seasons, respectively, the only way I’ve been able to make sense of T.C.O.’s subpar season thus far is a mix between the inability to make the jump to D4, the loss of DB Matt Rupcic to injury, and the addition of the periods between the “T” the “C” and the “O”. For real, you shouldn’t mess with your team’s juju like that.
Prediction: 3-7
22. Fruit Loops (1-4): Their record shows 1-4, but it’s one that could easily be the opposite. Fruit Loops have competed in every single one of their games aside from a blowout loss to The Family, and the fact they’ve done so despite featuring a roster with only three players who have ever played in the league is quite the achievement. This team has the talent to make the playoffs. I just think 1-4 is too great a hole to dig out of.
Prediction: 3-7
21. Quack Attack (1-4): I love that they unleashed the beast that is Jérémie Gauthier last week in a major upset of Lynx. I only wonder why they didn’t do so sooner. The team’s offence clearly wasn’t clicking with Hugo Lachaine at quarterback, but it’s suddenly become one of the division’s most dangerous ones with FPF’s version of Michael Vick taking the snaps. Of course, the question now is how long he can make the magic last. Gauthier took Division D by storm last year, running for anywhere between 50 and 180 yards a week in each of the first six weeks. But once rushers started figuring him out and kept him in the pocket, the game was up, most memorably resulting in a six interception game against Le Zoo in Week 7. That being said, if Quack Attack have any hope of righting the ship, Gauthier is it.
Prediction: 3-7
20. Longhorns (2-3): It’s been quite the up-and-down season for Longhorns, starting with a one-point loss to a 1-4 team and heading into Week 6 coming off a one-point win over a 3-2 team. It seems like when Jon Moodie gets into a rhythm this team can compete with some of the division’s best, and the fact they went 9-1 in Division D last year is a testament to that. But that’s also what worries me—you never know what you’re going to get with Longhorns. At least, that’s the feeling I get after seeing Moodie struggle to complete a single downfield pass one week and then hit speedster Adam Rosen on a deep bomb the next.
Prediction: 4-6
19. Fun Boys (1-4): With a roster featuring three players who helped Afternoon Delight reach the playoffs in Division 3 last year, and two others who helped KGP Champs do the same in Division C, talent isn’t something this team is lacking. But a strong supporting cast can only go as far as their quarterback can take them, and so far Scott Mironowicz has played well below my expectations for a former Division 2 signal-caller, having completed under 50 percent of his throws this year. That said, this team isn’t so far off—all of their losses were by six points or less and they’re coming off a big win. There’s still time to turn things around, but they’ll need to be flawless from here on out.
Prediction: 4-6
18. 57 (2-3): Simon Dagenais will likely tell you he’s disappointed in 57’s record thus far, but it’s the opposite for me—they’ve actually exceeded my expectations. Starting a quarterback that hasn’t thrown a single pass in the league, I figured a long season awaited the team. But five weeks later and the Pilon family is still afloat and only a game out of a playoff spot. That said, I’m not sure they’ll get it. Alex and Serge Pilon Jr. may be two of FPF’s best receivers, but two receivers a team doesn’t make. Serge Sr. has completed more than half of his passes in just two games so far and thrown just 14 touchdowns. Without more consistency on his part and more plays from the rest of the receiving corps, I can’t see 57 getting very far.
Prediction: 4-6
17. Turf Toe Inc. (2-2-1): The last time we saw Turf Toe Inc., in Division 5 in Winter 2013, veteran FPF QB Kevin Lubin was able to lead the team to an 8-1-1 record behind nearly 28 points per game and a defence that allowed a second-lowest 13 points per game. Flash forward to today—the defence is allowing a respectable19.6 points per game, but the offence is managing a measly average of 15.2. A big reason for that decline: receiver Patrick St-Louis, who led the team that winter season in catches and touchdowns, isn’t on this year’s roster. If Turf Toe Inc. want to finish strong and secure a playoff spot, it can’t rely solely on its defence, especially if it isn’t forcing turnovers like it used to—rather, it’ll need someone to step up and fill that void on offence. Is anyone on the roster up for the challenge?
Prediction: 4-5-1
16. X-Men (2-2-1): X-Men took me completely by surprise with a big 33-7 win in Week 1, but I have to say I’ve been disappointed with how they performed in their next four games. QB Gautama Swamindham already has thrown six picks after throwing four all last winter season, and for a reason I can’t explain a team that has consistently scored 30-plus points a game over the past few seasons hasn’t even broken the 20-point barrier since that Week 1 win. The fact deep threat Wade Williams has only played in two games and caught passes in just one of them is cause for concern, but this is a case where the offence simply needs to get its groove back. A rather tame schedule the rest of the way should help.
Prediction: 4-5-1
15. Channel 4 News Team (3-2): A part of me wanted to believe Channel 4 News Team, who finished 3-7 in the division last winter, had turned a corner after a 3-0 start this year. Another part of me said the team was overachieving, and it sure looks that way considering Jake Applebaum’s squad has lost back-to-back games since that 3-0 start. The deep-ball offence that dominated the first three weeks of the season looks to have disappeared, and that doesn’t bode well for a team with a pretty tough remaining schedule.
Prediction: 5-5
14. Monstars (3-2): When I saw they’d be starting a quarterback who once threw 21 interceptions in six games in a season in FPF, I didn’t expect much from Monstars. While QB Rod Mashtoub has had his share of difficulties, throwing 11 interceptions already, it’s clear he’s nonetheless improved, making safer decisions and throwing nicer deep passes (it helps to have ridiculously fast Hermes Zepeda as the target on most of them). That said, Monstars have only faced one team currently holding a winning record, and they lost that game by two scores. We’ll only find out what they’re really made of in the coming weeks.
Prediction: 5-5
13. Primetime (2-3): I truthfully didn’t expect the team to gel as well as it has at this stage. On paper the Daoust brothers-Those Guys merger hasn’t yet resulted in the success this new team likely had hoped, but it’s definitely coming along. This team could easily be standing at 3-2 if David Daoust hadn’t needed to replace an absent Cody Hemsley at quarterback last week. Not to mention the fact that Primetime have allowed over 30 points against in just one of their five games so far. That kind of defence, coupled with a QB on par for his best statistical season yet, makes a playoff spot well within reach.
Prediction: 5-5
12. Knights (2-2-1): Much like Fruit Loops, aside from a blowout loss to Eskimo Brothers—a game in which starting QB Antonio Lanni didn’t play—Knights have battled every single week so far this season. And that’s a great sign for a team whose starting quarterback is in his first year playing the position full-time. The addition of Division 2 receiver James Crowe has obviously played a big part in that success, with Crowe leading the team in receptions, yards, touchdowns and pass deflections. But he might be playing too great a part—in the two games Crowe has led the team in yards and receptions, Knights are 2-0. In the two games he’s been held to one catch, Knights are 0-1-1. If Knights want long-term success, they’ll need the rest of the cast to step up.
Prediction: 5-4-1
11. Team Ethnik (3-1-1): It isn’t of any fault of their own, but to put it bluntly I have yet to see Team Ethnik get a truly noteworthy win. Their only game against a team I consider a clear cut contender, The Replacements, saw Ethnik shutout 20-0. Still, three wins is three wins, and they’ve definitely exceeded my expectations considering they’re coming off a 4-6 season in Division 5 last winter. If the switch to Angelo Garofalo at quarterback is permanent, I like it. Mike Mendell is off to a rough start this year, completing under 48 percent of his passes while throwing six picks to eight interceptions. Garofalo and his penchant for extending plays with his mobility could give the offence the spark it needs if it’s to compete with high-scoring offences like Lynx’s—the kind of high-scoring offence Ethnik will surely meet again down the road if they’re to make the postseason.
Prediction: 5-4-1
10. Two and a Half Dans (2-2-1): They may only have won two games thus far, but looking only at their record would be doing this team an injustice. They lost to the 5-0 Healthy Scratches on conversions, beat The Family, one of last year’s D4 semi-finalists, and are coming off a Super Bowl XXXIV-like loss to The Replacements, with Foti Evangelista deflagged inches away from what would’ve been a game-winning catch. I like QB Joey Taylor’s ability to extend plays and I like that he’s able to keep defences guessing by spreading the ball around evenly. A bad second half against Smokin’ Aces aside, THD have shown up to play in every one of their games so far. There’s no reason to believe they won’t continue to do so.
Prediction: 5-4-1
9. Project Mayhem (2-3): Recovering from an 0-2 start to get to 2-3: good. The fact they should actually be 3-2 after having to forfeit a win due to going over the cap with a sub: promising. The fact they started 3-2 before finishing 3-6-1 in Division D last spring: worrisome. That being said, my gut tells me a similar collapse isn’t in the cards for this team this season. QB Normand Bellemare is playing exceptionally well, the defence is getting turnovers across the roster sheet, and a favourable remaining schedule awaits. Though I’m still unconvinced Mayhem are among Division 4’s elite teams after struggling to finish above .500 in divisions D and 5 in past seasons, that doesn’t mean they can’t still be a force to be reckoned with, especially not with one of the division’s best receiving corps and one of its most underrated defences.
Prediction: 6-4
8. Coyotes (4-1): After going 4-6 in their first season playing in Division 4 last year, Coyotes looked headed for much of the same this year following an 0-1 start this season. But three wins later Sammy Feder and the boys are 4-1 and look to have finally adapted to the division’s speed. The obvious story here is the play of receiver Josh Feder, who has caught just about everything thrown his way and is the unquestioned leader right now in the race for receiver of the year. But I’m more impressed with the overall consistency of the team so far, with their only loss coming by a single score. If Coyotes are able to stay toe-to-toe with Predators in a few weeks, I’ll be more than impressed—I’ll be convinced they’re a real contender.
Prediction: 6-4
7. Eskimo Brothers (3-2): I said early on that if they can adjust to higher competition, Eskimo Brothers can surprise this season. They’ve definitely proven that, with the likes of receivers Corey Oliver, Stephen Georgy-Pond and QB Mitchell Muir stepping up to show that this team is more than just Shawn Steen. What they haven’t proven yet, is that they can keep up with the division’s big boys, with both their losses coming in the form of blowouts to obvious contenders in Predators and Healthy Scratches. Big wins over struggling teams is nice, but if you can’t keep up with the division’s best, deep playoff runs are hard to come by.
Prediction: 6-4
6. The Family (3-2): The Family proved to be better than their 6-4 record showed last season, making it all the way to the Division 4 semi-finals. I think the same is true at the midway point of this season. Unlike many other teams in the division, The Family don’t have a single go-to-guy who, if you shut down, will magically lead you to beat them. You have to account for everyone on offence. Though I’m not predicting a particularly strong second half to the regular season for The Family, that’s more to do with the tough games they have ahead of them as opposed to a reflection of the team’s ability—you’d be mistaken if you thought I didn’t believe they can compete for the championship.
Prediction: 6-4
5. Smokin’ Aces (2-1-2): This team may not be the same without Daniele Gentile as quarterback, but that doesn’t make it any less a potential contender this year. Seven of the nine players on the roster have played in higher divisions, most going all the way up to divisions A and B. With that kind of resumé, there’s no question this team is stacked on both sides of the ball. All it’ll really come down to is whether QB Anthony Bozzo will be able to adapt to the division come playoff time. The fact he’s completed just under 48 percent of his passes and thrown for only 10 touchdowns while throwing eight picks doesn’t exactly make the Aces a team to fear like they were last winter. But they very well could be so long as Bozzo continues to improve.
Prediction: 6-2-2
4. The Replacements (3-2): QB Matt Bishara may not lead the division’s most traditional offence, but if there’s one thing The Replacements know how to do is win, and that’s good enough for me. This team lives on its ability to convert third and fourth downs with clutch plays on offence and a defence that gives up very few big plays, and it’s led to positive results so far. However, as the team’s losses to Primetime and Lynx have shown, the lack of a traditional aerial attack makes it difficult to come back from a deficit when the defence does allow those big plays. Still, I don’t see them allowing many more the rest of the season.
Prediction: 7-3
3. Healthy Scratches (5-0): You know you have a good team if you’re blowing out teams without your starting quarterback. Healthy Scratches have seen Cedric Langevin step in for Anthony Vendrame at the position the past two weeks and if anything the team is performing better, with the gameplan of Langevin running wild and the defence allowing nothing deep working to perfection. As great as it’s been for the team, if Langevin remains the starter going forward, he’s going to need to prove he can pass the ball consistently if the team hopes to remain perfect the rest of the way.
Prediction: 8-2
2. Predators (4-1): Bombs Away is a more suitable name for this team considering the amount of deep passes QB James Floreani has thrown to Mathieu Brunet for touchdowns. Of course, if you live by the sword you die by the sword, as evidenced by Floreani’s three-interception day in Predators’ loss to 57. But four great days out of five isn’t a bad ratio, and one I’m sure Predators are perfectly content with.
Prediction: 8-2
1. Lynx (3-2): I know they’re coming off a big loss and they’re brand new to the league, but this is one case where my gut overrides the stat sheet. Running QBs like Jérémie Gauthier are far and few between, and Lynx are unlikely to face that style of offence moving forward. That little blip aside, Lynx have dominated just about every game they’ve played—and that’s despite the fact they’re still getting accustomed to FPF football. How dangerous will they be once they’ve finally finished doing so? Here’s an understatement: very.
Prediction: 8-2
Picks of the Week:
15-10 brings me to 71-53—good, but not great as I was bested once again by Simon Dagenais, who finished 17-8 to go up to 78-47.
Brocassion vs. Jaggerbomb
57 vs. Kingdom
Fun Boys vs. X-Men
Eskimo Brothers vs. Turf Toe Inc.
Coyotes vs. Project Mayhem
Predators vs. Monstars
Les Maloudes vs. Les Prédateurs
La Sauce vs. BearSkins
Backyard Bullies vs. KGP Lite
69ers vs. Angry Beavers
The Replacements vs. Banana Republicans
ZOO vs. Six Fast Guys Plus Ryan N/A
Checkmate vs. Trapstars
Quack Attack vs. Two and a Half Dans
Fools of the Country vs. Lockdown
Healthy Scratches vs. The Family
Gotham Knights vs. Sea Assassins
Primetime vs. Dragons
The Junks vs. Mustangs
Ball Busters vs. Outlaws
Channel 4 News Team vs. Knights
T.C.O. vs. Longhorns
Fruit Loops vs. Smokin’ Aces
Pickle Fiasco vs. Flying Comics
Playground vs. Les Affreux
Team Ethnik vs. Lynx
Fantasy Football
And before I forget, here are the results of this week’s matchups in D4 fantasy football:
Peeze (204.3) vs D’Aquila (191.7) : Peeze
Simon (122.4) vs Justin (168.2) : Justin
Brent (113.2) vs GM (158.2) : GM
Mat (103.6) vs Roger (156.66) : Roger
The standings after two weeks:
1. GM (2-0, +75.1)
2. Mat (1-1, +52.7)
3. Roger (1-1, +30.44)
4. Justin (1-1, +16.04)
5. Eagle (1-1, +10.1)
6. Peeze (1-1, -4.13)
7. Brent (1-1, -36.9)
8. Simon (0-2, -151.61)
***
3,500 words later, I’m clocking out. Check back Thursday for the rest of my midseason breakdown. As always, my email is [email protected] and my Twitter is @JBlanchFPF. I’m gonna go drink a Red Bull now.