Predicting the playoffs with current standings part 1: Play-in and half of the wild card round

Week 8 has concluded which means the playoffs are coming soon. This season in Div E, 20 out of all 22 teams will be playing at least one playoff game, starting with the play in round for teams 13 to 20. After that, the 1st seed will get the lowest remaining seed, the 2nd seed will get the 2nd lowest remaining seed, etc. There are 5 rounds of single-elimination games until we crown the Div E winner. I will predict the playoffs if the current seeds were to play each other starting with the play-in round and the first 4 matchups of the wild card round. Tomorrow, I will post part 2 which will have the rest of the wild card, the quarter finals, semi finals and finally my predicted champion.

The play-in

The 8 lowest seeds that qualify for the playoffs (Tex4s Chooches, Texas Whales, Area 69, Bloodline, Les Habitations BR, Satriales, OnlyFlags and Bend Don’t Break) play each other (13v20, 14v19, 15v18, 16v17).

Bend Don’t Break (13) vs. Tex4s Chooches (20)

The drop off between the good teams and the bad ones is quick in Div E this season. The 4-3 Bend Don’t Break who have been solid all season get a struggling and beat down Tex4s Chooches who have lost 8 games in a row since winning their season opener against Bloodline. A rematch of Week 5 in which Chooches got steamrolled 25-0, the outcome shouldn’t be much different. Bend Don’t Break have only gotten better as the season progressed and have won their last two games convincingly (by a 39-12 blowout against Les Habitations BR and a surprise upset over Cover 3 Inches Long by a score of 19-12.) With Luke Moreau getting more comfortable at QB for BDB, both through the air and with his feet, Bend Don’t Break would score at least 4TDs. Their defense being their strength, they stop the struggling Chooches offense and leave themselves with short fields. Chooches struggle both on offense and defense and are only able to score once, with a final score of 26-6 in favor or BDB.

OnlyFlags (14) vs. Texas Whales (19)

Another relatively unfair matchup, the 3-3-1 OnlyFlags face the 1-7 Texas Whales. OnlyFlags have been struggling recently, coming off back 2 back losses to Meat Lovers and Ramphins, two solid teams just above them in the standings. George Spano has struggled against the best teams he’s faced. He threw 4 interceptions and only 1 touchdown in the blowout loss to Ramphins, but Spano has been very good when playing against lower competition. In this hypothetical matchup, Spano does very well and throws 4TDs while only throwing one or two picks. Zachary Mastromonaco is too much to handle for the Texas Whale defense and adds at least 2TDs and an interception in the game. The Whales have only one win this season, and it came to the worst team in the division, Grand Daddy Purp. Unable to find any sort of consistency on both sides of the ball, they are unable to stay close to OnlyFlags in this game and lose by at least two possessions, by a score of 31 to 12.

Satriales (15) vs. Area 69 (18)

We finally get an interesting game in the play-in with the 2-4-1 Satriales squaring off against the 1-5-2 Area 69. A rematch of the week 4 33-33 tie, a lot has changed since for both teams. Area 69 lost their 3 games since, but they had an impressive 26-24 loss to Cover 3 Inches Long, and 2 blowout losses to Ramphins and Show Me Dem TDies. With only 6 points in their last 2 games, there is source for concern when it comes to Area 69’s offense. Michael De Seta has thrown 1 touchdown and 9 interceptions in his last two games. He has been unable to click with his receivers and the team has looked plain awful. The teams they’ve faced are really good, but to have any hope of a little run in the playoffs, they would have had to be competitive, and they weren’t even close. Satriales should take care of this game easily, with a 31-14 win.

Les Habitations BR (16) vs. Bloodline (17)

The 2-6 Habitations BR face the 2-5 Bloodline in a week 2 rematch in which BR destroyed Bloodline 40-6. Since then, Habitations BR have been trending down and Bloodline have been trending up a bit. Benoit Robidoux has taken a huge step back, and only has 16 TD passes and 12 interceptions. Michael Binette McDougall and Simon Viens have been great at the receiving position, but the rest of the roster is lacking. BR have only beaten Texas Whales since and have been blown out by all the other teams they have faced. As for Bloodline, Justin Fraser has improved, and Eric Boisvert and Nathan Duguay have been his two best receivers. These two teams are very similar, with QBs who don’t pick up many yards, and don’t score a ton, with two main receiving options. I think BR’s experience is going to be the deciding factor, and would edge Bloodline in a closer game than before (27-12).

There is it for the play-in games, with no upset and a very clear line between the okay teams and the bad ones.
Now on to the wild card round, we have the 4 top seeds playing against the 4 winners of the play-in.

Hail Marty’s (1) vs. Les Habitations BR (16)

Hail Marty’s would destroy Les Habitations BR. Marty Freedman has been great in his first season at QB, throwing for 1115 yards, 31TDs and 10 interceptions. Brandon Vickers has been one of the best receivers in the division placing 2nd in TDs with 16 and 4th in yards with 421 yards, while having to share targets with other good receivers like Jonathan Perez. Hail Marty’s defense hasn’t been incredible but their offense has more than made up for it. Marty Freedman would pick apart the subpar Habitations BR defense and put up 40. Benoit Robidoux wouldn’t be able to match Marty’s offense and would only score three times. Final score prediction: 40-19

FSU (2) vs. Satriales (15)

One of the more interesting matchups when it comes to high vs. low seed as Satriales’ rusher could cause some trouble for dual-threat QB Justin Schwartz who has thrown 17TDs and 4 interceptions, but also added over 220 yards rushing and 5TDs on the feet. In their week 1 matchup, the QBs weren’t who they will be, as Mario Palmieri was replaced by George Kalavritinos, and Schwartz wasn’t there. Alessandro Barazzoni and Alex Di Gregorio have been the two best receiving options for Satriales but FSU should be able to handle them. On the contrary, I don’t see how Satriales’ defense contains all 5 of Alejandro Fonte, Jason and Cory Dankner as well as Josh Kastner and Justin Dicaire. FSU have too much depth for Satriales to handle and they will heavily rely on Morelli to pressure Schwartz into making mistakes. I don’t think Morelli’s efforts could be enough though and FSU would come out victorious 32-12.

Meat Lovers (3) vs. OnlyFlags (14)

Woah! Meat Lovers have suddenly jumped up the rankings with a 6-1-2 record and look stronger than ever. Their +131 differential is second only to Hail Marty’s and Manny Bizogias leads the division in passing yards (1307) and TDs (36!). Undefeated in their last 7 games, Meat Lovers have shown that they can really blowout some of the worst teams in the division. Their inability to come out of games against tougher opponents with wins is a bit concerning though, and makes me doubt about how much of a contending team they really are. Ties against Minchia FT and WHO D’EH aren’t bad results per se, but certainly not the results you would expect from a contending team with championship aspirations. When these two teams faced each other, Meat Lovers weren’t able to put a gap in the scoring, and only won by 4 despite George Spano throwing 3 interceptions and Bizogias throwing none. Meat Lovers’ offense is aggressive and risky, and they have some ball hawks on defense (Bizogias, Scalia and Gonsalves). Those three are also the ones leading the offense as Scalia has over 500 yards and Gonsalves has 13 TDs. They would be way too much to handle for OnlyFlags and the lack of depth for Meat Lovers shouldn’t be a problem yet. I think this game would be less close than their regular season outing, with Meat Lovers coming out on top 41-20.

Minchia FT (4) vs. Bend Don’t Break (13)

Side note, I finally took the time to check on google what “Minchia” means. Very funny boys. Anyways, MFT are 6-1-1, with a +117 differential, but are 1-1-1 in their last 3 games with a big loss to Primetime in Week 5 and an interesting tie versus Meat Lovers in Week 6. Their 27-12 win against WHO D’EH in Week 8 is certainly a good sign, and I think the loss to Primetime and the tie to Meat Lovers finally set a fire under these guys’ butts. After starting 5-0 due to a very easy schedule, Matthew Cadogan and Primetime put up 43 points on what had been the best defense in the division up to that point. Every championship team needs a wake up call in the regular season, and I think MFT really needed that loss. Of course, I couldn’t talk about MFT without mentioning their defensive anchor Justin Neemeh who has 3 picks and 12PDs. Neemeh and Matthew Neiss have been the best offensive weapons, but every single player on the roster has done something on offense. All 8 receivers have at least 2TDs this season. This team is deep and has star power. Adam Antel has been solid, with 30TDs and only 12 interceptions, as well as over 1000 passing yards, but he gets sacked a little too often. MFT is also one of the best converting teams, with 18XP1s and 2XP2s. Overall I think this team is a real contender and has a shot at winning the whole thing. A potential matchup versus Bend Don’t Break would be great for Minchia FT, as they like to be very aggressive on defense, and the way to beat them is with a gunslinger like Matthew Cadogan who is able to take deep shots and unfortunately, that is not Luke Moreau’s strength. Bend Don’t Break’s QB would struggle a lot against this defense and a blowout would be expected. My prediction is 34-12 for MFT.

That is it for part 1 of the playoff predictions if the playoffs started today. In tomorrow’s article, I will be going over the other wild card matchups which look amazing. Cover 3 Inches Long, who have been struggling a little lately would face the unpredictable Trailer Park Boys. Not You Too? who have been without Kaiden Dewey-Hull the past few games have slid down the rankings and would now have to face the steady WHO D’EH who surprisingly sit in the 11th seed. The best defense in the division, Show Me Dem TDies, would have to find a way to contain the best player this season in Joe Morgese in a game against Pasta Arrabiat. Finally, my favorite matchup; the electrifying Primetime led by Matthew Cadogan would face the rolling Ramphins who have been on an absolute tear the past 4 games.
I will then give my predictions for the quarters, semis and finally tell you who my favorites are to win the championship.

Next week should also be exciting, as I will be going back to review my Awards predictions and give you my picks for each award. I will also look back at my power rankings and give an updated version.

Finally, for my last article of the regular season, I will look back on my mid-season report cards and give an updated grade for every team. I will also analyze and predict the actual play-in matchups, with hopefully some being the same as in this article so I don’t have to write as much…

Thanks for reading and good luck to you all for your upcoming games.