2nd-and-Short (Div4) – Playoffs Week 2

I knew I should’ve been wary of first-round upsets in Division 4’s own March Madness when the real March Madness brought us the likes of Dayton beating Ohio State and Mercer shocking Duke in the Round of 64. While the opening round of the division’s FPF playoffs didn’t see upsets of that magnitude, some were nonetheless unexpected. Let’s take a quick look back at the week that was before previewing this weekend’s Round 2 games.

 

One-Line Recaps (because it would take me a week to complete regular-sized recaps for 15 games)

 

Kingdom (8W) 21, The Replacements (1E) 12

It takes a special quarterback to find the holes in The Replacements’ defence that Adam Sinagra found. It’s safe to say he’s the real deal.   

 

Lockdown (7N) 39, Broccasion (2S) 19

Up until this past weekend, no one could say they’d sacked Kristian Cerantola five times including once in the endzone for a safety. Now, Julien Paiement can.

  

Six Fast Guys Plus Ryan (2N) 36, Les Prédateurs (7S) 13

I can now say from experience: Les Prédateurs are among the most athletic teams I’ve faced this season. All they’re missing is discovering how to translate it onto the FPF field.

 

ZOO (6S) 28, Ball Busters (3N) 18  

Admittedly, I wouldn’t have picked ZOO even if I’d known Frank Kaye was back from injury. I’m glad to say I was pleasantly surprised.

 

69ers (4N) 33, Les Maloudes (5S) 32

Winning a playoff game despite turning the ball over more times than your opponent is a win nonetheless. But I wonder if they’ll be able to do the same as the road to the championship game gets tougher.

 

57 (2W) 30, T.C.O. (7E) 25

Unless 57 ends up facing La Sauce in the championship game, the T.C.O. defence is probably the toughest defence QB Jérémie Mongeon-Duby is going to face this playoff run. He made that defence look like swiss cheese.

 

Lynx (2E) 32, X-Men (7W) 18

You can’t fall behind two scores against Lynx and expect to win. Not gonna happen against an offence like that.

 

La Sauce (1S) 38, Fools of the Country (8N) 8

When your QB completes less than half of his passes and still puts up 38 points, you know you’ve got it good.

 

Outlaws (5N) 52, KGP Lite (4S) 40

I knew Outlaws had it in them to put up monster points. I didn’t know they had it in them to pick off a top QB like Phil Cutler four times in a single game.

 

Healthy Scratches (4E) 26, Monstars (5W) 24

This one marked the only time Rod Mashtoub has gone interception-free in a game this season and lost. That says a lot about Healthy Scratches—namely, that they don’t need turnovers to win games. In FPF, that’s huge.  

 

Predators (1W) 53, Smokin’ Aces (8E) 39

The saying goes the best defence is a good offence. Predators have a great one.

 

Two and a Half Dans (6E) 31, Coyotes (3W) 18

Off-days happen. Sammy Feder simply picked the worst possible time to have one.

 

Team Ethnik (5E) 21, Channel 4 News Team (4W) 12

Peeze called Team Ethnik his Cinderella team. With a solid quarterback, an exceptional rusher and improving team chemistry, I like to think the same.

 

The Family (3E) 41, Dragons (6W) 32

And just like that, my dream scenario of my team beating Simon Dagenais’ in the championship game is crushed. That being said, the fact he lost his first-round playoff game while I won mine is a scenario-turned-reality I welcome with open arms.

 

Sea Assassins (1N) vs. Flying Comics (8S)

Daniel Lazzara. That is all. No seriously, go check the stats.   

 

Bearskins (3S) vs. Mustangs (6N)

I hope the fact they’re playing just before the start of Round 2 won’t affect the winner too much. Back-to-back games can be a tiring affair.  

 

Predictions

I forgot to mention that Simon did in fact beat me in our regular season predictions competition. I went 12-13 with my all-out upset picks in Week 10 going for the competition win. I am not ashamed. Congrats to Simon. Too bad he has no more chance of winning the only trophy that matters. 

La Sauce vs. Lockdown

Lockdown rusher Julien Paiement was able to mostly keep division-leading runner Kristian Cerantola in check this past week. Now we’ll have to wait and see if he can do it again—this time versus another elusive QB, François Raymond.

But even if Paiement is able to contain Raymond, there’s still another hurdle his team will have to get over if they want to win this one: scoring against the best defence in the division.

If Lockdown are to win this one, their offence will need to play their best game yet. That means QB Pat Riot trusting his reads and not floating any passes, and his receivers fighting for every contested pass. Anything less is sure to result in a La Sauce win.

 

Six Fast Guys Plus Ryan vs. Outlaws or Six Fast Guys Plus Ryan vs. ZOO (N/A) 

 

When 6+R took the field against Outlaws in Week 9, the “mild” Jean-Michel Beaudin took the field.

Now, not only does the “hot” one seem to have led his team into the playoffs, but he also seems to be playing the hottest yet—he completed 26 passes for 271 yards and eight touchdowns this past week, all season-highs.   

As for ZOO, don’t be fooled by 6+R’s blowout win against them the last time these two teams played each other. Usual starter Frank Kaye wasn’t there that week, and with the offence he runs and that his team’s accustomed to, his presence makes a heck of a difference.    

 

Sea Assassins vs. Mustangs or Sea Assassins vs. ZOO

Whether they end up drawing Mustangs or ZOO in the second round, I don’t think it makes too much of a difference. Sea Assassins aren’t the kind of team that adapt to you—you have to adapt to them.

Mustangs have shown they have the ability to keep up with that kind of offence. Their main problem is consistency. As for ZOO, they too, have the ability to keep up, but it’s going to take a perfect game from Frank Kaye and his receivers in their favored short ball offence.

In either case, I have a hard time seeing Sea Assassins fall.    

 

69ers vs. BearSkins or 69ers vs. Outlaws

The fact I’m picking against 69ers in both cases isn’t so much a reflection of what I think of their team so much as what I think of their potential opponents.

If they draw Outlaws, Week 2’s 47-27 score already sheds some light on what to expect a second time around. Though I wouldn’t foresee 69ers QB Shea Harbour throwing as many as three picks a second time around, I nonetheless think this one would be Outlaws’ for the taking once again so long as Beaudin were to play as well the second time around as he did the first.  

Now, if 69ers draw BearSkins, it’s a bit of a different story. I think 69ers match up better against them only because QB Neil Etinson’s shining start to the season has started to fade in recent weeks—after throwing 26 TDs to 5 ints through the first seven weeks of the season, he’s thrown just 10 TD while tossing 8 INTs in the last three.

Nevertheless, you still have to face a defence that gives up few big plays and that has four pick-sixes to its name. And even if you do get around that, there’s still the near-impossible challenge of shutting down receiver Aleksander Papich.   

 

Predators vs. Kingdom

I was there to see Kingdom take down the might Replacements. I tip my hat off to them and especially to their QB Adam Sinagra, who chewed up the Replacements’ defence seemingly with ease.  

But I’m not worried about what Kingdom can do on offence. What worries me is what their opponent can do on offence.

Kingdom already got a first-hand taste of it back in Week 5, when Predators layed a whoopin’ on ‘em by a score of 42-22.

Kingdom seem to have improved since that loss, but it doesn’t change the fact that even when you know James Floreani is throwing it deep, chances are you’re not stopping it.

If Kingdom are able to neutralize that deep ball somehow, they definitely have a chance. I just don’t think they will.  

  

Healthy Scratches vs. Team Ethnik

Team Ethnik couldn’t have asked for a much better match-up in Round 2, set to face an opponent that has seen six of its eight wins come down to a single score. Then again, you could say the same thing for Healthy Scratches, who are set to face an opponent that has zero wins against teams with a winning record.

Looking at that, you would think Healthy have the advantage here. And indeed they might, looking at how much speed they have on both sides of the ball and a proven ability to play the division’s top teams down to the wire. But Ethnik still have a chance considering Scratches QB Anthony Vendrame has thrown at least one interception in all seven of his starts this season. If Ethnik can force at least one or two turnovers and capitalize on them, I can see them coming away with the upset win.   

 

57 vs. The Family

In this match-up of family versus Family, I’ll take the one with Jérémie Mongeon-Duby playing quarterback.

The Family are without a doubt one of the division’s best teams. They’ve been together for a while, they have a well-balanced offence, a capable defence and great chemistry overall.

But all of that means little when you’re up against a team as hot as 57. As of yet, no one has had an answer for Mongeon-Duby’s pinpoint accuracy and the Pilon brothers’ deceptive speed. I’m not sure The Family will, either.  

 

Lynx vs. Two and a Half Dans

26-13 was the final score when these two teams squared off in Week 9. As much as I’d love an upset, I’m not sure THD can pull it off.

Playing to THD’s advantage is they’ve already faced Lynx once and know what to expect. Chances are Lynx won’t be changing too much—most new teams don’t adapt over the course of a season.

But playing to Lynx’s advantage is, well, serious talent. Lynx have only lost two games this season, one in Week 1 in their first-ever FPF game and again when they faced a running QB for the first time.

The only way I can see Lynx losing this game is if they beat themselves—if QB Mathew Bourbonniere-Morin doesn’t connect on his long bombs to his receivers. Otherwise I think they win this one.  

***

Well, that’s all for today. To those teams who feel slighted by my picks, you can let me know by email at [email protected] or on Twitter @JBlanch6. If not, let me know in person—I’ll be at the fields both Saturday and Sunday for this round’s games. If not, you can always give Simon Dagenais a shout at [email protected]. I’m sure he has a lot more time on his hands now that his team is eliminated from the playoffs. Good luck to all this weekend!