2nd-and-Short (Div 4) – Playoffs Week 1

This is it: the real season. After 10 grueling weeks, our 32 playoff teams are finally set.

Four weeks from now we’ll have our champion. To remind those top seeds not to underestimate their opponent, I point to the fact that two years ago an inconsistent Mongoose team took everyone by surprise en route to a 2012 Division 4 championship.

To remind those lower seeds of the tall task ahead of them, I point to the fact that last year the 10-0 Incredibles crushed all four teams they faced in a 2013 Division 4 championship run. 

Let’s take a quick look at the games to come as Division 4 sets off on its own March Madness (my picks are in bold).  

 

The Replacements (1E) vs. Kingdom (8W)

Kingdom were a long shot to make the playoffs after starting 0-5-1 on the season, but led by first-year FPF QB Adam Sinagra, they were able to come together for a four-game winning streak saw them sneak into the playoffs.

But as thrilling a turnaround it may have been, I think it’s coming to an end Tuesday. Both times Kingdom faced a team that finished with six or more wins, Predators and 57, they lost by a combined 80-46. I’m expecting more of the same in this one with Matt Bishara’s offence rolling on all cylinders as of late while his team’s defence will be unlike any Sinagra has faced so far this season.

  

Broccasion (2S) vs. Lockdown (7N)

In three games against mobile quarterbacks—Week 2 versus Six Fast Guys Plus Ryan, Week 6 versus Fools of the Country and Week 8 versus 69ers—Lockdown has allowed a whopping 203 yards and two touchdowns on 17 rushing attempts. They lost all three of those games.

Unfortunately for them, they’ll be facing the leading rusher in the division on Tuesday, Kristian Cerantola.

Unless my fellow FPF media member Alex D’Aquila can somehow contain Cerantola (yeah, good luck with that), I think Broccasion come out on top in this one.

 

BearSkins (3S) vs. Mustangs (6N)

I’m going with BearSkins here, but I think this is one of those games on upset alert this week.

BearSkins have fared better than perhaps even they expected when they made the switch to Neil Etinson at QB in Week 2, going on to win four in a row. But I’m a bit worried with how they’ve ended their season, namely getting blown out by LaSauce in Week 6, beating Trapstars on conversions the next week, and beating Les Affreux by less than a touchdown this over the weekend.

That being said Aleksander Papich is still Aleksander Papich, and unless Mustangs are able to shut him down I’m not sure they make it to the next round. 

  

Six Fast Guys Plus Ryan (2N) vs. Les Prédateurs (7S) (N/A)

I’d rather not give my opponents any insight into my team’s weaknesses, so I’ll just use this time to remind my teammates of how much of a challenge we have ahead of ourselves on Tuesday: four players listed on the Cégep du Vieux-Montréal Spartiates roster, including QB Frédéric Paquette-Perrault who happens to play for Team Canada.

 

Ball Busters (3N) vs. ZOO (6S)

It hasn’t been a particularly spectacular season for ZOO, featuring a shutout at the hands of La Sauce, a blowout loss to Six Fast Guys Plus Ryan and an 0-1-2 record to end the season, not to mention having to switch QBs midway through with regular starter Frank Kaye lost to injury.

But they nonetheless qualified for the playoffs and there’s still hope new QB Pat Lefebvre can lead them to victory against Bull Busters on Tuesday.

It’ll take a near-perfect game to do so, however: The Busters defence has been a tough one to crack in recent weeks, holding each of the last five QBs they’ve faced under a 60 percent completion rate, while offensively QB Dylan Taylor has done a great job keeping opposing defenders on their toes by spreading the ball around evenly.

I think that combination ends up being the difference in this one. 

 

69ers (4N) vs. Les Maloudes (5S)

Les Maloudes showed their Division 5 championship from a season ago was no fluke finishing this year’s regular season with a 6-4 record in D4. What’s most impressive is they’ve done so despit bringing in a first-year FPF QB in Zacharie Quiviger, who’s been on fire aside from a four-pick game against BearSkins early in the season.

On the other side, 69ers are coming off their best season in FPF with a 7-3 finish.

I think the big determining factor in this one will be Shea Harbour the QB vs. Sebastien Thibault the rusher. Thibault is coming off a 13-sack season in which he notably sacked such mobile QBs as Neil Etinson three times, Kristian Cerantola twice and Phil Cutler four times. Harbour, meanwhile, has been particularly adept at avoiding the rush to gain a few extra seconds to find his receiver downfield or run the ball if needed.

If Thibault is able to keep Harbour in the pocket and get a few sacks forcing third- and fourth-and-long situations I can see Quiviger working his magic to squeeze out an upset in this one.

  

T.C.O. (7E) vs. 57 (2W)

I know T.C.O. haven’t been too happy with how I predicted their season to go, and I definitely credit them for making the playoffs in their first season in D4, but I hope they can understand that this pick isn’t so much a reflection of what I think about their team so much as a reflection of what I think of 57’s.

To put it simply, I think 57 are the most dangerous six-win team in the division. They’ve looked as much since Concordia’s Jérémie Mongeon-Duby took over the QB reigns in Week 6, helping lead the team to a 4-0-1 record to close out the regular season behind his ridiculous 130.5 QB rating (best in the division, obviously).  

A few games aside, T.C.O. have fielded one of the better defences in the division this season. But that was before they were tasked with trying to stop not one, but two Pilon brothers, and a CIS quarterback to boot. 

 

Lynx (2E) vs. X-Men (7W) 

These two teams met once already in the regular season, and suffice to say it wasn’t close—Lynx won 39-19.

That game was only four weeks ago. Though chances are it’ll be a little closer the second time around, I just don’t see how X-Men will be able to keep up with Lynx barring a sloppy game on their part, not with QB Mathew Bourbonniere-Morin having looked like a man among boys in his first season playing FPF.

The only hope for X-Men in this one is to score first, not force any plays and keep the pressure on Lynx. Even then, I’m not sure it would be enough.

 

La Sauce (1S) vs. Fools of the Country (8N)

Being the only team to go undefeated in the division is sure to put some added pressure on La Sauce’s shoulders, but I don’t think they’re the kind of team to fall prey to a trap game.

La Sauce’s defence has looked unbreakable this season, and that spells bad news for a Fools of the Country team whose QB Étienne Guilmain has struggled to adapt to the higher competition—he finished the season tied for the most interceptions thrown in D4. 

If Guilmain, who finished with the second-most rushing yards in the division, is able to break a couple big runs FOTC have a chance to make it to Round 2. But it’s nonetheless a very, very slim one.

 

KGP Lite (4S) vs. Outlaws (5N)

Another toss-up. It’s been tough to get a hold on exactly who each of these teams are, with KGP losing to the 5-5 Les Prédateurs one week and defeating 8-2 Broccasion another. Outlaws, meanwhile, have lost to 3-7 Angry Beavers yet are coming off a tie against the 9-0-1 Sea Assassins.

Assuming the best from each team shows up, however, I’m giving KGP the edge—a very slight one. Outlaws QB Jean-Michel Beaudin has thrown at least one interception in each of his games so far this season, while Cutler has been interception-free in four separate weeks. Cutler also happens to have touchdown leader Fred Saleh on the team. 

If Outlaws have an answer for Saleh they could very well come out on top. I’m just not sure they will.    

 

Healthy Scratches (4E) vs. Monstars (5W)

The bad for Monstars: QB Rod Mashtoub has thrown 19 interceptions on the season, one less than the division leaders. The good for Monstars: Healthy Scratches have just seven interceptions on the season.

But the fact Healthy Scratches have won seven games despite that fact has me leaning in their direction for this one. As long as they keep the mistakes to a minimum and are able to keep Mashtoub from connecting deep to speedster Hermes Zepeda, I think this game is theirs for the taking.

  

Predators (1W) vs. Smokin’ Aces (8E)

If Daniele Gentile goes QB for Smokin’ Aces, this one has shootout written all over it.

But even if that’s the case, I still like Predators’ chances. James Floreani’s deep ball has been virtually unstoppable week-in and week-out this season, especially when he’s been throwing it to receiver Mathieu Brunet.

Now, that’s not to say I don’t think Smokin’ Aces can win—if there’s any team that matches up well with Predators, it’s them, especially with Division 2 receiver Matthew Petrone on the roster. This is the team I named as my darkhorse a few weeks back, after all. 

That being said, I still think this one is Predators’ to lose.  

 

Coyotes (3W) vs. Two and a Half Dans (6E)

Coyotes haven’t quite closed out the season the way they’d hoped, losing in blowout fashion to Predators and 57 before tying Eskimo Brothers in the season finale.

But they didn’t win six games by luck, and I think they match up well against THD, themselves on a two-game losing streak.

I’m not sure THD have faced quite the dominant receiver Josh Feder has proven to be this season, while offensively Two and a Half Dans haven’t seemed to find their footing on a consistent basis, scoring over 30 points just twice this season. From the looks of things, it’s going to take at least that mark if they hope to come out on top on Wednesday. The question is whether they can.  

 

Channel 4 News Team (4W) vs. Team Ethnik (5E)

Both teams have had their struggles—including a shutout by Team Ethnik and technically a five-game losing streak for C4NT, but both have also had their highs—namely, a 33-33 tie of Lynx for Team Ethnik and a six-point win over Coyotes for C4NT.

That being said, I like to believe that Vladir Boursiquot, who finished first in sacks, will put the heat on Applebaum and make him rush his throws in a low-scoring game that goes down to the wire. 

Of course, one good rusher doesn’t guarantee a win, especially not a team as talented as C4NT’s. This one could go either way. I just picked the underdog because no March Madness bracket is complete without at least a few upsets.

 

The Family (3E) vs. Dragons (6W)

The first reason I made this pick is because I hate Simon Dagenais. The second reason I made this pick is because I think The Family are simply the more complete team.

I give Dagenais and his team credit for bouncing back from a slow start to win four straight games at some point (and ruining my predictions percentage in the process). That being said, only one of those four wins came against a team with a winning record, and even then it was by the skin of their teeth.

The Family are an established team in this league that made it all the way to the semis last year, and if there’s one thing they know how to do it’s put up serious points. I have a difficult time seeing Dragons keeping up.

 

Sea Assassins (1N) vs. Flying Comics (8S)

I’m already over 1,900 words, so I’ll keep this one short and sweet: Daniel Lazzara. That is all.

Okay, fine, I’ll put a bit more effort into it.

Yes, Sea Assassins are coming off a few weeks in which they haven’t been as dominant as in earlier weeks. Yes, Flying Comics seem to win all their games when Matthew Young is playing and lose all those games in which he didn’t play.

But all of that aside, I think Sea Assassins simply have too much firepower at their disposal. You can rest-assured they’ll be scoring more than a few touchdowns on Wednesday. Flying Comics have hit the 30-point mark just twice this season.

 

***

Over 2,000 words later, and I’m finally clocking out. As excited as I am for this massive opening round, I have to admit I’m looking forward to when the competition thins out and I can get back to spending my time sending Simon Dagenais hate mail at [email protected] for having the worst throwing motion in FPF. Seriously, it looks like he’s trying out for his local shot-putting team. As for my own email, that’s [email protected]. You can also reach me on Twitter @JBlanchFPF. The podcasts are still on as well, which you can check out at http://www.theunclehood.com/flag-plus-football/. Let the madness begin!